# Coin toss probability when not 50/50

by Mikes1098
Tags: 50 or 50, coin, probability, toss
 P: 3 I hopefully have a rather simple question.... I am looking for the equation to calculate the probability when the total counts of heads and tails get off balance. To further explain, when I flip the coin once there is 50/50 chance getting one or the other.... If I flip the coin 10,000 times that probability will get closer and closer to .5. However, on the way to 10,000 flips.... Maybe after 100 flips, I might have 30 heads and 70 tails... Therefore my next flip should have have more of a chance of hitting heads (greater than .5 anyway).... How do I calculate that "improved" probability after the measuring x amount of data? Thanks
P: 3,319
 Quote by Mikes1098 Therefore my next flip should have have more of a chance of hitting heads (greater than .5 anyway)....
If you are making independent tosses of fair coin that is not a correct deduction. There must be hundreds of threads on the forum about the fallacy of thinking this way.

If you are flipping the coin in some way that you can change the probability of getting a head and make it more or less than 0.5 then you could look at how many total heads you have and try to "balance things out" by changing the probability of tossing a head. But if you assume you are always tossing a fair coin then you are tossing a fair coin, regardless of the past history of heads and tails.
P: 772
 Therefore my next flip should have have more of a chance of hitting heads
No. Coin tosses are independent; previous tosses have effect on future tosses.