ArXiv Research Output Trends 2006 - Stats Visualization

[marcus]

http://arxiv.org/Stats/hcamonthly.html

the arxiv stats graph research output trends by field.

they just updated for yearend 2006

 

[arivero]

hep-th shows a recovery in the monthly submission rates. http://arxiv.org/year/hep-th/07 http://arxiv.org/year/hep-th/06 etc

 

[marcus]

Thanks for the prompt, arivero.

==quote arXiv==
High Energy Physics - Theory ('06)
High Energy Physics - Theory ('07)

available title/author lists of hep-th papers, + cross-listings to hep-th, received during given months (each '|' represents 10 titles):

* 0601 (Jan '06) |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 236 + 108
* 0602 (Feb '06) |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||! 296 + 101
* 0603 (Mar '06) ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||! 256 + 130
* 0604 (Apr '06) ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 219 + 131
* 0605 (May '06) |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 296 + 147
* 0606 (Jun '06) ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 287 + 127
* 0607 (Jul '06) ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||! 251 + 117
* 0608 (Aug '06) |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||! 229 + 110
* 0609 (Sep '06) ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||! 226 + 119
* 0610 (Oct '06) ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||! 336 + 132
* 0611 (Nov '06) |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||! 354 + 142
* 0612 (Dec '06) ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||! 309 + 137

'06 Total: 3295 + 1501

* 0701 (Jan '07) |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||! 294 + 121
* 0702 (Feb '07) ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 229 + 104
* 0703 (Mar '07) ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||! 290 + 115
* 0704 (Apr '07) ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 245 + 109
* 0705 (May '07) |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 333 + 147
* 0706 (Jun '07) ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 302 + 128
* 0707 (Jul '07) |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 259 + 142
* 0708 (Aug '07) ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 257 + 95

'07 Total: 2209 + 961

==endquote==
the first 8 months of 2006 showed 2070 + 971 (submissions + crosslistings)
the first 8 months of 2007 showed 2209 + 961

So the crosslistings to hep-th from other departments were about the same (971, 961) but the direct posting to hep-th showed a 10 percent rise! (2070, 2209)

some sample years:
2002--- 3334 + 1339
2005--- 3239 + 1438
2006--- 3295 + 1501
(2007--- 3600+ ? rough estimate)

Hep-th contains a lot else besides string, so I do not know if this 10 percent recovery will be reflected in string submissions as well. I have made a rough estimate for hep-th as a whole assuming the 10 percent rise you pointed out to me.

As a final step maybe one should translate preprint submissions into an expectation of how much peer-review publication there will be. Lately I have been watching the Harvard abstracts list which just tallies the papers actually published.

 

[jal]

It appears to me that there is a relaxation by the "old guards", due to contributing evidences that other explanations might be valid which encourages people to dig out and update their papers from the bottom of their file drawers.
You only need to make the comparison with what is now accepted on TV shows, advertising, etc., that were taboo to discuss only a few short years ago.
(eg. adult diappers/inconsistencies, erectile difficulties)
jal

 

[marcus]

It appears to me that there is a relaxation by the "old guards",... comparison with what is now accepted on TV shows,...
(eg. adult diapers..., erectile difficulties)

preprints in hep-th have been flat or slightly down for 2002-2006 and now seem to be climbing again---you attribute this to declining standards of what is interesting or important enough to make public. And compare this with big diaper access to network TV.
outrageous