Heat waves set to become 'brutal'

[Ivan Seeking]

Scientists from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) used climate modelling to predict geographic patterns of future heat waves.

Future heat waves in some areas of Europe and North America will become more common and extreme in the second half of the 21st Century.

The research shows greenhouse emissions are likely to exacerbate the problem. [continued]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3559426.stm

 

[jdw313]

Do you think that maybe it is time we make a real effort to limit greenhouse gas output? Or, even if people do start to care, is it too late to stop major climate changes in the next century?

I have read some models forecast up to a 14C increase in temperature at the polar regions over the next 100 years. That is the worst-case scenario, but just something to think about for our future, perhaps?

 

[Andre]

The more talk about absolute sure global warming, (caused by an increase of greenhouse gasses) the more studies emerge that show in a different direction. This for instance:

A paper published this week in the journal Science supports the hypothesis that heat transfer by ocean currents – rather than global heating or cooling – may have been responsible for the global temperature patterns associated with the abrupt climate changes seen in the North Atlantic during the past 80,000 years.

abstract of the the original paper http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/304/5679/1959.

Perhaps note that the alarmists run around in the same circle of consensus and models. Models are a self forfilling prophecy. Garbage in garbage out. If you put in a high forcing of CO2 (contrary to Stefan Boltzmann law), sure enough your model will show you that it's going to be warm, what else would you expect. That's called circular reasoning.

 

[NileQueen]

Well I guess it makes news. The reporters don't report that weather cannot be modeled very well as there are not supercomputers big enough for all the variables. And yet here are assurances that heat waves are a continuing trend. This should have a Psychic Friends disclaimer on it, because that's what it amounts to.

"Future heat waves in some areas of Europe and North America will become more common and extreme in the second half of the 21st Century. "

No real scientist could make such assurances. I notice the article does not name anyone. If they did make such claims, they should all be fired.

 

[NileQueen]

Okay I scanned the article too quickly. There are scientists listed:
"As the pattern becomes more pronounced, severe heat waves will hit the Mediterranean and southern and western US."

I added the boldface. Now that is pretty definite in an indeterminate situation. But maybe the reporter chose those words.

"It's the extreme weather and climate events that will have some of the most severe impacts on human society as the climate changes," said Jerry Meehl of NCAR, who co-authored the research with his colleague Claudia Tebaldi. "

Well we can't disagree with that statement, if the extreme weather should happen.

 

[jdw313]

Andre,

I read that article, and it is interesting to see that point of view. I do understand your idea of the "bad" forecast model, but I think the facts are clear.

Only in the past 80 years or so have CH4 and CO2 levels shown a dramatic rise in the atmosphere. Any studies done to compare current climate change to paleoclimate data cannot be completely accurate, for the simple reason that humans - or industry - was not around during those time periods. The truth is that we do not have an accurate method of comparing today's atmosphere to that of earlier eras just due to that fact.

About the heat transfer, I think the article may make some good points - especially if we do not count greenhouse gases. The idea of the ocean circulation carrying heat to parts of the globe is widely believed, and it is that shutoff that some scientists are afraid will cause the next ice age. The study looks at 80,000 year old ice core data - and we both know that humans had zero influence over the climate that long ago.

Look at atmospheric data taken from the keck observation station on HI. It is clear that CH4 and Co2 levels are at all time highs, and still increasing. I cannot say for sure that this is the cause of warming on our globe, but the trends are noteworthy nonetheless. Now, can I, or anyone, say for certain that it is this greenhouse gas increase that causes weather change? Not right now, but the past 15 years have all been warm, in general. I for one, think that we would be smart to try to limit these gases now while it is (hopefully) not too late.

 

[Andre]

JDW, You said:

The idea of the ocean circulation carrying heat to parts of the globe is widely believed, and it is that shutoff that some scientists are afraid will cause the next ice age.

Yes of course, it's all so obvious but guess what:

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2004/2003GL018584.shtml

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 31, L02301, doi:10.1029/2003GL018584, 2004

Does the recent freshening trend in the North Atlantic indicate a weakening thermohaline circulation?

Peili Wu, Richard Wood, and Peter Stott

Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research,
United Kingdom

Abstract

[1] It is widely expected that the thermohaline circulation of the ocean will slow down as greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere increases. This is partly due to an intensified hydrological cycle in a warmer climate. Is the recent observed freshening trend in the North Atlantic an indication of what has been expected? We report a similar freshening trend reproduced in an ensemble of four coupled model simulations with all major historical external (natural and anthropogenic) forcings. The modeled freshening trend originates from the Arctic Ocean where sea ice decrease and river runoffs increase with the same trend. Instead of weakening, we find an upward trend in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

The last sentence means that the ocean circulation is getting stronger despite the melting of the ice of Greenland. There you go. We know much less about climate than we think.

 

[jdw313]

Hmm. Interesting. I am going to read that article and post some thoughts. Thanks for sending that.

Now, before reading any of it.. that last sentence, could that possibly imply that an increase in the overturn could cause a completely different reaction - that is, increase in global temperature because the heat transfer is faster? Just a thought?

 

[Andre]

Good question

but what about causality, If the thermohaline current is getting stronger, could that be (one of the) cause(s) of the "global" warming in Europe and parts of Asia? Whereas the Americas haven't warmed significantly for instance? Note that the rural weather stations of both South America, central and south Africa and central Asia indicate a slight cooling during the last couple of decades.

 

[Rader]

I have been living on the Mediterranean Sea for 25 years. The water currents change from day to day as much as a ten degrees, August was always a calms warm sea not anymore. Not to mention the air currents, just prior to the meteor shower we had high temperatures with a lot of water evaportion grey skies intstead of blue. Then alto status clouds appear and the haze disappears and the sky is blue like the end of September. Now today it is back the way it was before. Every year now for a few years back the weather gets more radical each time. We have never had a tornado here in all of the those 25 years until last year they started to appear.