Typically Dem voting populace: seismic shift

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Discussion Overview

The discussion centers around the perceived shift in voting patterns among Catholic voters in the context of the U.S. presidential election, particularly regarding support for President George W. Bush versus Senator John Kerry. Participants explore the implications of survey findings and personal experiences related to Catholic voting behavior, touching on themes of morality, religious affiliation, and political alignment.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Exploratory

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants reference a survey indicating a significant shift among Catholic voters from supporting Kerry to supporting Bush, with claims of a "seismic shift" in voter preference.
  • Others express skepticism about the survey's findings, citing personal experiences where they observe a predominance of Catholic Republicans in their communities.
  • A participant questions the basis for Catholics' previous support for Kerry, suggesting that it was primarily due to his Catholic identity rather than alignment with Catholic values.
  • Concerns are raised about the influence of religious leaders on Catholic voting behavior, particularly regarding issues like abortion.
  • Some participants note discrepancies in polling data from different research organizations, with one mentioning that Pew Research shows Kerry with an edge among certain demographics of Catholics.
  • There is a suggestion that the political landscape among Catholics may not be as straightforward as the survey suggests, with varying opinions based on geographic and socioeconomic factors.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a mix of agreement and disagreement regarding the interpretation of the survey results and the actual voting behavior of Catholics. There is no consensus on the reasons behind the reported shift or the accuracy of the polling data.

Contextual Notes

Some participants highlight limitations in the surveys, such as the focus on specific demographics or the potential biases of the polling organizations. There are also references to varying local political climates that may influence perceptions of Catholic voting behavior.

kat
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This is BIG IMHO
Analysis: 'Seismic' Catholic shift to Bush
*snip*
President George W. Bush has suddenly acquired a commanding lead among Catholic voters over his Democratic rival, Sen. John Kerry, according to the latest survey of the California-based Barna Research Group.

Barna called this finding a "seismic shift." In May, Kerry led Bush 48-to-43 percent among Catholics. Today, the ratio has changed to 53-to-36 percent in Bush's favor, reports Barna, an organization researching opinions and behaviors of the religious communities in the United States.

"That swing is attributable to an encompassing assessment by many Catholics of the leadership abilities, character, and policy stands of both candidates," pollster George Barna said.

Sen. Kerry is a Roman Catholic, President Bush belongs to the evangelical wing of the United Methodist Church, a mainline Protestant denomination.

"Many of the Catholics now behind Mr. Bush have traditionally voted Democratic but have chosen a different course this time around," Barna said.

Catholics make up almost one-quarter - 23 percent - of U.S. voters.
 
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Whaaaaaaa?

I know zero Catholics who are Democrats, infact, in my English class the teacher took a poll of who was Catholic and who was Republican, and I believe all but 1 or 2 raised their hands for Republican, and the Catholics who didn't raise their hand for being Republican didn't raise their hands for being Democratic either.

Where are Catholics traditionally Democrats that this shift is occurring?
 
wasteofo2 said:
Whaaaaaaa?

I know zero Catholics who are Democrats, infact, in my English class the teacher took a poll of who was Catholic and who was Republican, and I believe all but 1 or 2 raised their hands for Republican, and the Catholics who didn't raise their hand for being Republican didn't raise their hands for being Democratic either.

Where are Catholics traditionally Democrats that this shift is occurring?

That's been my experience too, at least with practicing Catholics. Legislating morality, as the Republicans like to do, is a big draw for Catholics. So, like you, I'm wondering why this is being considered a big shift? Though I have seen lawn signs popping up in my neighborhood that say "Catholics Against Kerry" I thought it was an interesting choice of words. They don't actually say they are FOR Bush. Then again, for every one of those signs, they have a neighbor with a Kerry sign up. My neighborhood is a pretty conservative population, and is about 50/50 based on yard signs. The more affluent neighborhoods are predominantly Kerry signs. I'm actually surprised because I live in a city that is very conservative and I expected to be predominantly Republican and pro-Bush, even among the affluent.
 
It's pretty straightforward really.

Once upon a time, a bunch of Catholics thought it would be a good idea to vote for Kerry, because...Kerry is Catholic. Then some Catholic priests started screaming 'bloody murder' when Kerry did not denounce abortion. The rest of the catholic mob joined in, and they all lived happily ever after. :biggrin:
 
I'm not surprised Catholics support Bush by a majority, I'm surprised this article is saying they USED TO support Kerry by a majority. I've heard something like 2/3 of the voters who go to church regularly are Republicans and 2/3 of the voters who don't regularly go to church are Democrats.
 
Gokul43201 said:
It's pretty straightforward really.

Once upon a time, a bunch of Catholics thought it would be a good idea to vote for Kerry, because...Kerry is Catholic. Then some Catholic priests started screaming 'bloody murder' when Kerry did not denounce abortion. The rest of the catholic mob joined in, and they all lived happily ever after. :biggrin:
That's really weird, Kerry doens't act like any Catholics I know, and doesn't combine Church and State the way most of the Catholics I know seem to love. Are you saying people really supported Kerry just because he goes to a Catholic church, as opposed to a Protestant one? If so, that's just plain sad that people still think along those lines in the USA.
 
Gokul43201 said:
It's pretty straightforward really.

Once upon a time, a bunch of Catholics thought it would be a good idea to vote for Kerry, because...Kerry is Catholic. Then some Catholic priests started screaming 'bloody murder' when Kerry did not denounce abortion. The rest of the catholic mob joined in, and they all lived happily ever after. :biggrin:
Actually, I would have though American Catholics would like the fact that Kerry thumbed his nose at the Catholic church. Could be just the young ones I know though.
 
Can't you do better than the Moonie Times citing an evangelical-oriented polling firm for a source?

The Pew folks give Kerry an edge among the Catholics they surveyed also, but their survey only included "white" Catholics, which they put at "about one of every five voters".

Their figure is 49% Bush - 39% Kerry right now, which is a change in the leader from their August numbers, but is actually less favorable to Bush than their early September numbers.

Summary of Pew Research Center polls
 
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a lot of the things people will think are quite sad.
 
  • #10
Smurf said:
a lot of the things people will think are quite sad.

Pinky, Are you pondering what I'm pondering?!?

Time to start putting Prozac in the drinking water :biggrin:
 

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