|Jan18-11, 03:44 PM||#1|
Scientists warn California could be struck by winter ‘superstorm’
Anyways, the parts I'm interested in hearing discussed, are: That, rising temperatures in the upper atmosphere have generally made weather patterns more volatile increasing the odds of this super storm occurring. How reliable such a model like (ARkStorm) would be. Is there something odd about the fact it's called Arkstorm, and that the model features 40 days of rain? What about the part where they say that ARkstorm created new science, and what do you think about the model of coastal inundation?
Also, I noticed this last year, California zoned flood classification, and the insurance in my house in particular went into a new level which dramatically increased the cost of flood insurance. So I imagine that producing a hypothetical storm model which floods 1/4 of the state will increase flood insurance profits. Is this a scam?
|Jan21-11, 09:06 PM||#2|
Blog Entries: 2
ARkStorm stands for Atmospheric River 1000 Storm (k=1000).
It's meant to represent a storm that happens on average about every 1000 years.
As the other link stated, significant storms have occurred in the past: 212, 440, 603, 1029, 1418, 1605 and 1862.
Figure 11.12 of the following link illustrates what climate models predict for North America.
There are about 21 different climate models. These models predictions are in more or less agreement depending on the location, season and parameter being considered. For California, about half the models project an increase in precipitation averaging about 10% during December-February season.
Anyhow, it's not clear to me if the flood of 1862 was a 200 year flood or a 1000 year flood. Hopefully, the guys and gals regulating flood insurance can answer that question.
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