Clarification for Probability problem

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around a probability problem related to job applications at two stores, focusing on calculating the probabilities of getting at least one job and exactly one job. Participants are exploring the underlying statistical concepts and reasoning involved in these calculations.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation
  • Conceptual clarification
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • One participant estimates the probability of getting at least one job as 0.8 by adding the probabilities of getting jobs at Store A and Store B.
  • Another participant challenges this approach, suggesting that the correct calculation should account for the overlap of probabilities using the formula P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B).
  • There is a discussion about the probability of getting exactly one job, with one participant calculating it as 0.76 by adding the probabilities of getting each job and subtracting the probability of getting both jobs.
  • Another participant proposes a different calculation for exactly one job, arriving at 0.72 by considering the probabilities of getting job A but not job B and job B but not job A.
  • A later reply questions the interpretation of the probabilities, suggesting that the probabilities given may represent the chances of getting a job at each store when applying to both, rather than individually.
  • Participants express uncertainty about the implications of applying to both stores and how it affects the probabilities.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

There is no consensus on the correct approach to calculating the probabilities, with multiple competing views and methods presented by participants. The discussion remains unresolved regarding the correct interpretation and calculations.

Contextual Notes

Participants express uncertainty about the assumptions underlying the probability calculations, particularly regarding the dependence of probabilities when applying to both stores and how this affects the overall probability of getting a job.

Who May Find This Useful

Students studying probability and statistics, particularly those struggling with concepts related to independent and dependent events in probability theory.

TFreem
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Please forgive my statistical ignorance! I have a couple of problems in my Stats class that I would like anyone to review and let me know if I am on the right track...

You have applied for a job at Store A and also Store B. You estimate the probabilities of getting the job at the stores A and B are 0.1 and 0.7 respectively. You also estimate that the probability of getting both jobs is only 0.04.

What is the probability that you get at least one of the jobs?

a) 0.04
b) 0.72
c) 0.8
d) 0.76

I chose c) 0.8 (by adding the probabilities of A and B together)

What is the probability that you will get exactly one of the jobs?

a) 0.72
b) 0.04
c) 0.76
d) 0.8

I chose c) 0.76 (by adding the probabilities of A and B together, then subtracting the probability of getting both jobs)

Could someone/anyone look at this and tell me if I am on the right track, please? I am having a terrible time trying to understand this theory! Thanks in advance for any help you can offer me.
 
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TFreem said:
Please forgive my statistical ignorance! I have a couple of problems in my Stats class that I would like anyone to review and let me know if I am on the right track...

You have applied for a job at Store A and also Store B. You estimate the probabilities of getting the job at the stores A and B are 0.1 and 0.7 respectively. You also estimate that the probability of getting both jobs is only 0.04.

What is the probability that you get at least one of the jobs?

a) 0.04
b) 0.72
c) 0.8
d) 0.76

I chose c) 0.8 (by adding the probabilities of A and B together)

No, that "0.7" probability of getting job B includes the probability of get job A also. P(A or B)= P(A)+ P(B)- P(A and B).

What is the probability that you will get exactly one of the jobs?

a) 0.72
b) 0.04
c) 0.76
d) 0.8

I chose c) 0.76 (by adding the probabilities of A and B together, then subtracting the probability of getting both jobs)
Probability of getting job A but NOT job B is 0.1- 0.04= 0.06.
Probability of getting job B but NOT job A is 0.7- 0.04= 0.66.

The probability of gett exactly one job is the same as the probability of getting A but not B OR getting B but not A- since those can't both happen, the probability is 0.06+ 0.66= 0.72.

Could someone/anyone look at this and tell me if I am on the right track, please? I am having a terrible time trying to understand this theory! Thanks in advance for any help you can offer me.
 
EDIT: Looks like my post below is incorrect. I'm leaving it so I can figure out where I went wrong as well.

QUESTION EDIT: So the .1 and .7 are the probabilities of getting a job at each store if you go to both stores not individually? So basically, if you go to store A & B you have a .1 chance at A, .7 at B, and a persumed .2 failure rate. Your chance at getting both jobs (if you go to both stores) is .4 when you add the chances and divide by 2?

The percentages are different because you are going to both stores? Applied to a realistic situation perhaps applying at both gives you an advantage because the manager owns both stores? He wants a worker at both places to minimize micro-managing and because the stores are similar allowing for less training requirements?

Also, if the chance at getting a job at A alone was .1 and B .7, then the figuring below would be correct?

Sorry in advance over my untechnical answers that may be incorrect. I might be able to give you ideas to work with though. After looking over your answers I think they are correct.

Part 1

10/100 + 70/100 = 80% or .8 = Your chance of getting a single job.
Since getting both jobs is dependent on getting a single job, the .04 would not apply.

If got a single job you would have a job. Afterwards, you have a job and thus have the one job required. After you have one job having two jobs doesn't matter.

Part 2: That seems right to me, I'm not sure how to explain it without quoting your post.
 
Last edited:
Thank you both so much for your help and input! What you said actually makes sense and I am grateful especially for your explanations as to where I was right or went wrong.
 

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