Are My Calculations for Accident Recovery Probabilities Accurate?

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SUMMARY

The discussion focuses on calculating probabilities related to accident recovery and the success of a new technique using binomial probability formulas. For 20 individuals with an 80% recovery rate, the probability that exactly 14 recover is 0.109, while the probability that at least 10 recover is 0.999. Additionally, the probability that at least 14 but no more than 18 recover is 0.849, and the probability that at most 16 recover is 0.589. For a new technique performed 5 times with varying success probabilities, the probability that all 5 are successful at p=0.8 is 0.32768, while the probability that at least three are successful at p=0.9 is 0.9271.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of binomial probability distribution
  • Familiarity with combinatorial calculations (e.g., "n choose k")
  • Knowledge of probability theory concepts (e.g., independent events)
  • Ability to perform calculations involving powers and sums
NEXT STEPS
  • Study binomial probability distribution in depth
  • Learn about combinatorial mathematics and its applications
  • Explore advanced probability concepts such as the Central Limit Theorem
  • Investigate statistical software tools for probability calculations, such as R or Python's SciPy library
USEFUL FOR

Statisticians, data analysts, researchers in probability theory, and anyone involved in risk assessment and recovery analysis.

OptimusPrime
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Please focus on my numerical answers and let me know if they are correct.

Thanks

1. The probability that someone recovers from an accident is .8. Suppose 20 people are known to have been in accidents.

a. What is the probability that exactly 14 recover?

20 choose 14 * .8^14 * .2^6 =.109
b. What is the probability that at least 10 recover?

20 choose x * .8^x * .2^20-x
=1- P(Y<=9)= 1-.001 = .999

c. What is the probability that at least 14 but no more than 18 recover

20 choose x * .8^x * .2^20-x

P(14<=x<=18)= p(14) +p(15) + p(16) + p(17) + p(18) =.849

d.What is that probability that at most 16 recover?
20 choose x * .8^x * .2^20-x

P(x<=16)= p(0)+p(1)+p(2)+...p(16) = .589



2. A new technique has a probability of p. Assume the technique is peformed 5 times and the results are independent.
a. What is the prob that all 5 techniques are successful if p=.8?

5 choose 5 * .8^5 * .2^0 =.32768

b. What is the prob that exactly four are successful if p = .6?
5 choose 4 * .6^4 * .4^1 =.2592

c. What is the prob that less than two are successful if p=.3?

5 choose x * .3^x * .7^5-x

P(x<2) = p(0) + p(1) =.528
 
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d. What is the prob that at least three are successful if p=.9?
5 choose x * .9^x * .1^5-x

P(x>=3) = 1- P(x<=2) = 1-.0729 = .9271
 

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