A Poll

Gold Barz

Here is a poll...how many alien civilizations do you think are existing in the Milky Way at this moment.

- 1
- 10
- 50
- 100
- 1000
- 10 000 or more

I would vote for 50

Adrian Baker

What do you consider to be a 'civilization'? Would a colony of alien insect type animals, eg ants, be considered?

If you mean some orgainised life form, I'll vote for 10 000 or more. However if you mean civilizations capable of transmitting electromagnetic radiations, I'm down nearer 1.

moose

Including microorganisms, I would say 10 000 or more. If you mean like animals on our planet excluding us, I would say around 1000-10000. If you mean intelligent life, capable of using tools and etc...I would say maybe 5-50.

Either that, or multiply my answers each by 1000 :P

I like this quote from Michio Kaku
"You know; when I look at the night sky and I see this enormous splendor of stars and galaxies, I sometimes ask the question, well how many worlds are we talking about? Well do the math, there are about 100 billion galaxies that are in the visible universe and each galaxy in turn contains about 100 billion stars, you multiply and you get about ten billion trillion stars. Well I think it is the height of arrogance to believe that we are alone in the universe, my attitude is that the universe is teaming, teaming with different kinds of life forms" -Michio Kaku

Dr.Brain

Perhaps you can search for the 'Drakes Equation' on the web, it will give you the correct figures. Though the DE looks a bit vague , still you can rely for some good amount on it.

SpaceTiger

Why is 0 not an option?

JamesU

why don't you actually add a poll to this poll thread?

Gold Barz

SpaceTiger, you think its just us in this whole galaxy?

And yeah I meant civilization as in some kind of technological species.

tony873004

What defines technological species? If we found a civilization on another planet that were identical to humans 1000 years ago would that count? No electronics, ect. They had invented the wheel, and a lot of other useful things, but not things we today consider technology.

As far as simple life, I would guess it's all over the place. Look at how well it adapts on Earth. If I don't take my laundry out of the machine for 2 days, it stinks of mold. If I don't weed my garden every few weeks, it becomes overgrown. Grass grows from the cracks in the sidewalk, green stuff grows on my shower walls. The Galileo Spacecraft sent to Jupiter, even after existing over a decade in a vacuum with no protection from radiation needed to be crashed into Jupiter to avoid contanimating Europa with life.

Earth's biosphere is flooded with life, from deep below the surface to nearly the top of the atmosphere.

It's difficult to imagine that all other planets would have the opposite problem.

Mental Gridlock

The drake equation is meaningless. It's completely arbitrary with a margin of error through the roof.

I vote 1 in this galaxy, and 1000+ in the universe.

turbo

Good points, Tony. Life on Earth is incredibly tenacious. Try to get rid of a termite infestation or fire ant colonies in the Southern US, and you'll get a feel for the kind of firepower (poisons, denial of habitat) that it entails. I would not want to live in a house that had been tented and saturated with poisons to kill termites! I live in the frigid north (in Maine) and even with the long sub-zero winters, organisms manage to adapt and thrive. We have molds, spores, aquatic organism infestations (red tide is currently crippling the clamming/mussel trade), and invasive water plants, etc, that are seemingly impossible to defend against or even moderate slightly. Every ecological niche that can be expoited is exploited. If Earth is any example, life that arises anywhere will conform and adapt to diversities and it will survive anything less than a planetary catastrophe. I am rather optimistic about the existence of extraterrestrial life, although the survival value of intelligence is a huge wild card. Intelligence gives humans lots of advantages in learned behavior and adaptability, but cockroaches currently hold the gold medal in species longevity, and they may have the last laugh.

Yank

I consider it to be a civilization when the creatures learn to write or otherwise store information so they can keep historical records. I'd vote for 10 in that case (just a wild guess).

moose

That's funny because it is estimated that there are 100 billion galaxies, so howcome this galaxy would be special and have two species when barely any others would?

Chronos

This is a pure crap shoot. I agree with SpaceTiger based on current observational evidence - we may be alone in this galaxy. I think it is possible we are among the first sentients to arise in this galaxy. The universe has a violent and hostile [to life] history - supernovae, gamma bursters, planet busting collisions, etc. It is conceivable conditions permitting beings such as ourselves to evolve were extraordinarily rare up until a few billion years ago.

Gold Barz

Wow, I was expecting Chronos to post...at least 50.

saltydog

Can't resist. Know about Drake's? I got one I call Salty's: N=2. Simple: Life is massively contingent and there are plenty of stars in the Milky Way. These terms cancel leaving unity. I added one because I'm optimistic.

Salty

Gold Barz

Chronos, I mean there are 200-400 billion stars in the Milky Way, even you said it your self...most stars have planets and gas giants could also have habitable moons, just by the sheer amount of that, I REALLY REALLY think there are about 50+ intelligent civilizations in the Milky Way existing right now.

Also, I sent you a PM.

PS: I also want to know what SpaceTiger has got to say on this matter.

Chronos

SpaceTiger already voted for zero, and I think I know why.