Aunt's Oil Stock Investment: Before and After New Orleans Incident

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the potential impact of the New Orleans incident on oil stock investments, particularly in relation to a specific investment made by a participant's aunt. Participants explore various factors that could influence oil prices and stock values, including market conditions, historical context, and government actions. The scope includes speculative reasoning about market behavior and investment strategies.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Debate/contested
  • Technical explanation

Main Points Raised

  • One participant expresses uncertainty about how the New Orleans incident will affect oil stocks, noting that the aunt's investment was not in New Orleans oil specifically.
  • Another participant suggests that oil is a relatively safe investment but advises against trying to realize gains from temporary price fluctuations due to the incident, citing a lack of market knowledge.
  • Some participants argue that oil company stocks may not be a good investment currently, predicting that oil prices will not rise significantly in the near future, while refinery stocks might perform better.
  • A participant mentions that New Orleans is not a major oil source, questioning whether the disaster will increase demand for oil.
  • Historical context is provided regarding past oil shortages and their effects on the economy, with a participant recalling the 1970s oil crisis and its implications for market stability.
  • There is mention of government actions, such as opening U.S. oil reserves, to mitigate market pressure, though participants note this is not a long-term solution.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a range of views on the impact of the New Orleans incident on oil stocks, with no clear consensus on whether oil stocks are a good investment or how the incident will influence prices. Multiple competing perspectives remain throughout the discussion.

Contextual Notes

Participants acknowledge various uncertainties, such as the actual demand for oil following the incident and the long-term implications of government interventions. There is also a lack of agreement on the stability of oil prices and the potential for future gains in the market.

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Hey, my aunt brought stocks in oil before the New Orleans incident

How much will the New Orleans incident raise those stocks, if any?

Thanks

She didn't invest in NEW ORLEANS oil, just other oil

I'm not sure where else I could find this info..
thanks

I think she invested around $25,000...but I'm not sure

so...not as excited as I was before I knew how much she invested
 
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Oil is a relatively safe investment, I think, and IMO, your aunt shouldn't try to realize the gain she might have due to the temporary increase in oil prices in connection with the New Orleans tragedy.
The reason for that is that your aunt is probably not well acquainted with the financial market, and to manage to tweak out a profit on such a small investment requires a skill only professional players at the market have. She stands an equal chance of loss if she tries to realize it now, IMO

If you were to give your aunt an advice, let this temporary fluctuation pass; there will surely arise a more solid opportunity in this market for her to catch a nice profit.
 
I tend to think oil company stocks are a bad deal right now, because I don't think oil prices are going to go much higher in the near future. However, refinery company stocks are going to have a big decade.
 
russ_watters said:
I tend to think oil company stocks are a bad deal right now, because I don't think oil prices are going to go much higher in the near future. However, refinery company stocks are going to have a big decade.
What I meant with "safe" was I don't think it is going to plummet, but remain relatively stable over time. Playing "unsafe", high-risk stocks in order to get huge gains requires a knowledge of the day-to-day market very few have, IMO.
 
Well New Orleans isn't a large source of oil or anything of that sort. I guess the only way this disaster could effect oil stocks is that there may be a larger demand for oil during this disaster, and I am not even sure if its more or less (as people won't be driving around NO).
 
I remember from my history lessons that in the 1970s, petroleum and resources created from raw petroleum (ie, gasoline for automobiles and other vehicles) was hard to come by; in fact, it was so hard to come by that for a while, many school systems across the United States shut down for at least two weeks.

In the current situation, our President, Dubbya (my nickname for him), has apparently allocated other geographical regions (ie, more of Alaska) into producing oil to make up for our losses in New Orleans. That will mean that perhaps gas prices will remain the same, but given the trend, they just may rise instead.

My point is that even if people have to pay five bucks a gallon ($1.32 per liter), they will do it - and obviously, they won't like doing that, but everyone's got to go somewhere somehow. If oil was restricted again as it were in the 70s, then schools and some businesses most likely would shut down temporarily, causing a far larger problem fiscally. I hope that it doesn't come to that again, as I would like to think that this wouldn't be the solution again, as that resulted negatively for the market.
 
Hasn't the govt. announced that they are opening up the U.S. reserves of oil to ease up the expected market pressure in the aftermath of Katrina? I thought I read it somewhere.

Of course, that's not a long-term solution: the used-up portion of the reserves will have to be replaced at some point.
 

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