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Or perhaps it is a necessary condition. What we know for sure is that a human is a human, with human intelligence, human intelligence...

That is very far off. The correct answer is 1.515 Your concept of “green survives” appears to be the problem.

I also calculated it to be 1.515 using a different but related method. What the OP is asking for is modeled by the negative...

## P(X=g) ## - probability that we have g green cards remaining ## P(X=b) ## - probability that we have b blue cards remaining ## P(X=r)...

From a logical point of view, human experience is a sufficient condition for intelligence, but that does not imply that it is a...

I'm skeptical because in the only example of such intelligence that we know exists, we humans, it did not arise from linguistics alone...

I would suggest something weaker. That a (measureable) element of intelligence might arise from linguistics alone. An LLM might have...

To follow up on this a bit: humans don't learn to interact with the world in non-textual ways by processing text. We have much of those...

Only if you add the condition that the next card is a different colour.

That would be true for sampling with replacement.

Yes, understood/agreed/a fan of Rush.

I am not sure either. But probably it would be something like there are as many permutations of the deck with 3 greens at the beginning...

Same here. The risks and benefits of the technology are better discussed without these terms, in my opinion. If an AI making financial...

I did a Monte Carlo simulation of 100000 shuffles with drawing from the front and got a mean value of 1.514 and a simulation of 100000...

My thinking was that when you have shuffled a deck there is no statistical difference between drawing from the top of the deck and...