Recent content by Marana

You seem to be making a big assumption without explicitly stating it. Suppose there are 1001 beauties: 1 winner who wakes up 1000 days in a row, and 1000 losers who wake up once in that time. Each thinks on sunday "There is a 1000/1001 chance that I wake up next to the winner." Your assumption...

How are you getting P(Heads & Monday) = P(Tails & Monday) in this version? The coin can't be flipped on monday now (and remember it is flipped on sunday in the original) because the time dilation drug must be given before waking monday. You're right that it isn't really symmetric... only in the...

Consider "time dilation beauty." On heads, beauty is given a drug that makes her experience monday and tuesday as if it were one day. Then we can do the whole thing with no sleeping. Heads: wake monday, stay awake until tuesday night. Tails: Wake monday, memory loss on monday night that gives...

Edit: I tried to come up with an equivalent situation but I don't think it worked.

This seems like a restatement of the frequency of awakenings argument, side by side instead of back to back. I still think that relative frequency of awakenings is an odd choice for probability of coin tosses if awakenings are not experiments. Just like we wouldn't use relative frequency of...

To be more precise, I'm not arguing against considering oneself a random selection, nor am I arguing against using relative frequency. They just can't be applied to a single wake-up, which is neither an experiment at all, nor an adequate model of sleeping beauty's full situation. Sleeping...

We all agree that without the amnesia drug you wouldn't use relative frequency of tails awakenings to decide your subjective credence. Without the drug 1/3 of awakenings are heads. An outside observer should believe 1/3, because for them the awakening is a random experiment. But everyone...

I may not be understanding this argument fully, but it seems like it is very similar to the frequency argument, just with the experiments placed side by side instead of one after the other. If so, I agree with you from the outside observer perspective, but not from sleeping beauty's...

Nobody would be answering 1/3 without the drug. Without the drug the answer is 1/2 on monday and 0 on tuesday (because you keep your memory you always know what day it is). Indeed, that illustrates why the frequency argument fails. Without the drug, the frequencies are the same, but not a...

Probability that the coin is heads: 1/2 If it's Monday: 1/2 If it's Tuesday: 0 It's not just the randomness that concerns me, it is whether it is an experiment. "In probability theory, an experiment or trial is any procedure that can be infinitely repeated and has a well-defined set of...

I may be different than a typical halfer, because I don't think we can use anything like this. You are treating it as though MH, MT, and TT are the possible outcomes of a random experiment, each with probability 1/3. In that case, it is certainly true that the probability of heads is 1/3, and...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frequentist_probability https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experiment_(probability_theory) "In the frequentist interpretation, probabilities are discussed only when dealing with well-defined random experiments" "In probability theory, an experiment or trial (see below)...

What I mean is the observer can repeat their wandering, so they could wander into one experiment and see monday with a tails coin flip, then wander into a totally different one and see monday with a heads coin flip. The observer can go around and observe many sleeping beauties with random...

The person wandering into the experiment can use the frequentist approach because from their perspective it is a random experiment. It would be possible for them to observe monday tails their first wander, monday heads their second wander. But that is impossible for sleeping beauty.

I would argue that we can't use the frequentist approach or Bayesian approach (at least with the way the problem is usually set up). Consider that if you didn't lose your memory the frequencies would be the same but you definitely wouldn't answer 1/3, so we all agree that frequency alone is not...