Will anyone alive today see a permanent colony on the Moon or Mars?

[Algr]

I understand "colony" as meaning that people move there expecting to live their whole lives, get married, and have kids who also live their whole lives there. So by that measure, we don't even have colonies on Antarctica yet.

The problem with moon or mars colonies is that there is simply nothing that you can do there that isn't far easier on Earth, or with robots instead of people. If you are living on the moon or mars, then you are spending your whole life in a cave. But if the technology exists to make that bearable, then the Earth would be able to support trillions of people in similar habitats at far lower cost.

Christopher Columbus fully expected to turn a profit on his first voyage to "India". Settlers moved to the new world because it was genuinely more habitable than the one they left behind. This history is part of our culture, and something we'd love to relive. But it won't be anything like that on Mars.

 

[Bandersnatch]

Settlers moved to the new world because it was genuinely more habitable than the one they left behind

The new world, maybe. But Australia? Or Siberia?
There's always a chance we may live to see a dystopian off-world corporate penal colony, what with the way the world is moving right now.

 

[DaveC426913]

Settlers moved to the new world because it was genuinely more habitable than the one they left behind.

That word 'habitable' is doing a lot of heavy lifting.

They moved because all the land and resources were locked up where they were from. You can't be a farmer if there's no land to be had.

 

[Ken Fabian]

So the question could be rephrased as "will we have a permanent moon base within 100 years"? My guess is yes in the sense that there will be mining companies. These could be mostly robotic with skeleton support teams. We're going to need more rare earth minerals and the moon has the supply.

I do think near Earth asteroids will always beat the moon for accessibility/cost - primarily Platinum Group Metals as target and for making rocket fuels as the no.1 resource space mining needs by mass (and avoiding mass sent from Earth is crucial to lower costs). No deep gravity well or dedicated space launch base would be needed and only low thrust rocketry is needed between them and Earth orbit. If based at asteroid poles, can have abundant un-interupted solar power.

If that isn't feasible I think mining the moon would be worse.

Earth will continue to beat anywhere else for rare earths. It isn't the rarity so much as the refining that is problematic. Better refining here on Earth seems more achievable than the development of refining suitable for the moon. And all the essential extras to make moon mining possible only make the finances worse. The moon has KREEP - 20ppm of rubidium and (not sure what concentration) lanthanum. From a different source, "- lanthanum (La) at approximately 60–100 ppm and cerium (Ce) at 120–200 ppm. Other key incompatibles exhibit elevated concentrations, including uranium (U) and thorium (Th) at tens of ppm, zirconium (Zr) at hundreds of ppm, niobium (Nb), barium (Ba), and strontium (Sr) also at elevated levels relative to bulk lunar compositions." Not sure that represents a rare earths mining opportunity. Perhaps on Earth it would.

If robotic mining/refining ever becomes a real thing it will primarily be here on Earth.

I don't expect any mining off Earth to have a human presence - because nothing adds more to the complexity and costs of activities in space than including them.

Settlers moved to the new world because it was genuinely more habitable than the one they left behind.

The new world, maybe. But Australia? Or Siberia?

Australia is not all desert! Where I am is heavily forested - if primarily now regrowth.

Like The Americas timber - sawed with human labour - became a major export. Not necessarily more habitable but 'free' for the taking - given the imbalance in weapons technologies. Abundant forests, soils, absence of large predators besides humans. Minerals.

PS info on lunar KREEP minerals added later.