Could we communicate with extraterrestrial life in a reasonable timeframe?

[Frimus]

I see the problem discussed here from a different angle. Instead of asking why the others are not here when we are here, I would ask: Why are we here when the others are not here? Could it be that advanced civilizations in Universe don't last long enough to leave visible traces?

This "eternal question" has surfaced again. See

arXiv:2606.04044

 

[sbrothy]

I think the answer to the "eternal question" is an "eternal questionmark". As you say it resurfaces from time to time (and I'm not innocent as I once read a paper containing a monte carlo simulation of Drake's equation which pretty much said there's a 50/50% chance that we're alone in the observable universe). Of course that's still just guesswork. There must me be someone out there one would think. Check Arthur C. Clarke's "Angels or Apes" argument. It can be found via this thread:

Undergrad Post in thread 'Probability of intelligent aliens coexisting with humans using Fermi Paradox assumptions'

Sep 28, 2024

A probabilistic analysis of the Fermi paradox in terms of the Drake formula: the role of the L factor

Also, this thread.

• sbrothy

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[sbrothy]

Interesting find though! EDIT: Kudos.

 

[Filip Larsen]

Regarding the topic title you could argue that the chance for communication to occur with extra-terrestrial intelligent life in your lifetime is likely significant lower than the chance of just detecting the presence of extra-terrestrial intelligence. Most discussions seem to revolve around detection (or presence, without us necessarily being able to detect it yet) and not so much around communication.

Since the linked paper is about von Neumann probes, I guess your question really is about detection.

 

[ioannisakousoulakos]

Let's play a little LEGO game. According to the size and the shape of the Milky Way, one would need 67 billion cubes with a 5 light-years edge to fill its space. We exclude the central bulge-located cubes since the conditions inside it are not ideal for life evolving; what remains is an approximate 63 billion cubes that are equally spread along the disk and the spiral arms of the Milky Way. Keep in mind that the 5 ly edge represents the average distance from one solar system to another for this region.
Now, inside the examined area, there are 4.65 billion G-type stars that can (potentially) possess exoplanets. This gives an approximate 13.5 cubes for every G-type star like our Sun out there. Let's consider now that out of all the G stars, only 1 out of a million has a rocky exoplanet with water and such surface attributes to sustain life in whatever form it takes, from bacteria to E.T. So it becomes 13.5 x 1M = 13.5 million cubes.
Putting all of them together into a REALLY BIG CUBE, we would have an edge of around 1,190 ly. With Earth standing right in the center of our little cube, the radius to the extremity would be 600 ly away—fun fact: exactly where Kepler-22b stands as the biggest known and confirmed candidate of our search so far.
But wait, we need an approximate calculation for INTELLIGENT LIFE out of overall life. A, let's say, approximate 1/1,000 fraction from the possible life-sustaining G stars, so it would be 13.5 million cubes x 1,000 = 13.5 billion cubes. And the edge of the BIGGEST CUBE has just raised to 11,906 ly. To this, we add 50% (since if we go hunting, that would be the whole distance we would have to fill up to the center of the immediate proximity cubes), so it becomes an overwhelming 17,859 ly.
I am very sorry to declare it here, but THE STATISTICAL POSSIBILITY OF MEETING OR BEING MET BY ALIEN LIFE IS ZERO TO NONE SINCE V_MAX = C . Have a good night .

EDIT AND CLOSING . ACCORDING TO THE ABOVE STATISTICAL CALCULATION , IN THE GALAXY AT THIS VERY MOMENT IN TIME AT LEAST ANOTHER 4 DISTINCT CIVILIZATIONS EXIST TOGETHER WITH OUR OWN - TOO BAD WE WILL NEVER BE ABLE TO CONTACT THEM OR TO BE CONTACTED BY THEM .

 

[renormalize]

Let's consider now that out of all the G stars, only 1 out of a million has a rocky exoplanet with water and such surface attributes to sustain life in whatever form it takes, from bacteria to E.T.

Reference please. Or is this just your guess?

But wait, we need an approximate calculation for INTELLIGENT LIFE out of overall life. A, let's say, approximate 1/1,000 fraction from the possible life-sustaining G stars...

Reference please. Or is this also just your guess?

 

[ioannisakousoulakos]

Reference please. Or is this just your guess?

Reference please. Or is this also just your guess?

A . According to the Chinese CAS , my data of guessing is aligned to their predictions .
https://arxiv.org/html/2206.06693v1 and https://et.shao.ac.cn/
Of course one can tell that NASA predicts 65% of all G stars to be having one exoplanet at least yet these kind of numbers are unrealistic . You need a multiplanet solar system to have at least 2 or 3 planets inside the ( green ) trajectory zone where the conditions for life will be favorable . Or you can take the NASA calculation as the correct argument but there the problem rises , where are all these planets and why we don't see them despite the technology used . But then you must also guess a solution to that .
B . So out there is the DRAKE equation and guess what ? It predicts the 1/1000 as a viable pessimistic ratio for the appear of really inteligent life and not just worms ( Great videogame back in the day though ) . Of course when we deal with scientific problems that stand on the verge of the unknown the pessimistic choices tend to be verified much more often then the optimistic ones but I am guessing ( again ) that you already know this .
C . ( the fun part ) When I GUESSED the numbers , yes I admit it , I had no clue about all this research out there from the Chinese , the Russians etc . So since my logic is robust and the math is a match GUESS WHAT ?? WE HAVE A MODEL , I NAME IT ( CREATOR RIGHTS .. ) LEGO MODEL FOR THE STATISTICAL PRESENCE OF EXTRATERRESTRIAL INTELIGENT LIFE IN THE MILKY WAY GALAXY .

 

[berkeman]

GUESS WHAT ?? WE HAVE A MODEL , I NAME IT ( CREATOR RIGHTS .. ) LEGO MODEL FOR THE STATISTICAL PRESENCE OF EXTRATERRESTRIAL INTELIGENT LIFE IN THE MILKY WAY GALAXY .

Please avoid using all capital letters in your posts. In discussion forums it is considered yelling, and is discouraged. Thank you.

 

[ioannisakousoulakos]

Please avoid using all capital letters in your posts. In discussion forums it is considered yelling, and is discouraged. Thank you.

Sorry , I know that is considered to be rude but I had no such intension .