Are Global Nuclear Arsenal Estimates Exaggerated?

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The forum discussion centers on the debate surrounding the estimated number of nuclear weapons globally, with participants questioning the validity of claims that exceed 20,000. Key points include the assertion that governments may exaggerate their arsenals for political leverage, particularly in the context of U.S. relations with countries like North Korea and Iran. The high costs associated with maintaining and storing nuclear weapons are highlighted, suggesting that the economic rationale for such large arsenals is questionable. Additionally, the conversation touches on the strategic implications of nuclear armament and the potential for misrepresentation by governments regarding military capabilities.

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  • Understanding of nuclear deterrence theory
  • Familiarity with military budget allocation and transparency issues
  • Knowledge of international relations, particularly U.S. foreign policy
  • Awareness of the historical context of nuclear proliferation
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Policy analysts, military strategists, international relations scholars, and anyone interested in the dynamics of nuclear weapons and global security.

nucleartear
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Do you believe that there are more than 20,000 nuclear weapons around the world?

The communists used false inter-continental missiles in their military parades in order to scare their enemies and create confidence on their people... It's an ancient political strategy to seem more powerfull that you are in fact! If USA had only 50 pumps, they wouldn't be sincere with North-Korea or Iran... They will tell that they have 10000! and if they have 10000, they will tell that they have 20000!...

Another point is that creating this kind of weapons is very expensive, but storaging them is astronomically expensive! Do they spend thousands of million dollars per year storaging that thousands of weapons when they are going to use them maybe once or twice times? It's not good for the ecomony...

And an atomic destruction doesn't have a economic profit... you can't use them in a country that you want conquest... so, if you need to use them to sacare your enemies, you will need less than 10...

I don't try to say that there are no one, I only say that there aren't so many as they say...

What do u think?
 
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Do they spend thousands of million dollars per year storaging that thousands of weapons when they are going to use them maybe once or twice times? It's not good for the ecomony...
Wait... Do you actually have any evidence to provide or are you saying that there mustn't, against all contrary indications, be so many nukes because having so many nukes isn't a smart idea? Well, you may be right that such nuclear armament isn't a smart idea, but I think you overestimate the intelligence of the folks in charge...:wink:

And it does stretch it a bit to say that multi-billion dollar military budgets go nowhere, or that the recent suggestions of converting older bombs to tactical "bunker busters" is about bombs they don't have, or the thousands of servicemen manning nuclear missile subs and silos and bombers are just twiddling their toes... The fact remains that Iran and NK are unlikely to be intimidated by the size of the nuclear arsenal (as they are already intimidated quite sufficiently by the sheer conventional firepower that is dangling over their heads) and international groups have been pressing for the US to disarm for years...
 
Originally posted by FZ+
Wait... Do you actually have any evidence to provide or are you saying that there mustn't, against all contrary indications, be so many nukes because having so many nukes isn't a smart idea? Well, you may be right that such nuclear armament isn't a smart idea, but I think you overestimate the intelligence of the folks in charge...:wink:
heheheheheeh:smile:

Well, you are right I'm not based on totally-objetive evidences... maybe the governments don't lain to us when they talk about the economy or how many hospitals they have build the last year, but about the details in strategic war movements, they actually do to controlate the oppinion of their people and the oppinion of their enemies, and I think that's one of their strategic movements... and try to find a real evidence must be very difficult since they try to don't show evidences... so, yes, I'm in an especulative way...

Originally posted by FZ+ And it does stretch it a bit to say that multi-billion dollar military budgets go nowhere, or that the recent suggestions of converting older bombs to tactical "bunker busters" is about bombs they don't have, or the thousands of servicemen manning nuclear missile subs and silos and bombers are just twiddling their toes...
Since the military budget is not public in its totality, we can't know where the money goes or what are they really doing with it... so they can tell us whatever they want, and we believe what they say because we don't have anything else!...
 
Yes, they are expensive. Maybe that had something to do with the failure of the Soviet Union?
 
A hundred years ago there were twenty different kinds of currency printed and circulated in the US. Each bank was allowed to print its own currency. Forgeries were common and accounted for one third of all the money in circulation. Bottom line, yer paper ain't worth **** unless you can back it up boy. Not only do you have to back it with something of value, but if you can't protect your assets all bets are off.

Hence you have situations like north korea where they literally have no choice but to develop a nuclear weapons program. The US imposed economic sanctions on them and the only choice they had left was to find some way to protect their assets and increase their long-term worth. The same principles apply to international politics and weapons development in general.

India now has the largest known weapons program deliberately aimed at countering those of the US. For decades the US has supplied their aggressive neighbor, Pakistan, with weapons. In response, the only way the Indian government can maintain the value of their curancy much less their survival is to develop weapons to counter that of the US, including a substantial nuclear weapons program.
 

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