$20000 at $0.20 martingale betting

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the application of a martingale betting system in a CSGO betting context, specifically analyzing the implications of betting $0.20 with an initial bankroll of $20,000. Participants explore the probabilities associated with losing streaks and the expected value of such a betting strategy.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation
  • Debate/contested
  • Mathematical reasoning

Main Points Raised

  • One participant calculates that losing approximately 17 times in a row would lead to going broke, estimating the odds of this occurring as 1 in 131,072, though they express uncertainty due to the non-50/50 odds.
  • Another participant argues that the number of consecutive losses required to go broke is independent of the odds, emphasizing that the betting scheme cannot overcome the house edge.
  • It is noted that the slight difference from 50/50 odds significantly affects the probability of losing 17 times in a row, suggesting a revised estimate of 1 in 57,000.
  • Further clarification is sought regarding the probability of going broke after 17 losses, with participants agreeing on the 1 in 57,000 chance but highlighting that reaching a break-even point would require about 100,000 betting cycles.
  • One participant suggests that betting the entire amount at once would be a more effective strategy for doubling the money compared to the martingale approach.
  • Another perspective is presented, calculating the expected value of the betting strategy as negative, indicating that better odds could be found elsewhere.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants generally agree on the probability of going broke after 17 consecutive losses and the negative expected value of the betting strategy. However, there is no consensus on the effectiveness of the martingale system itself, with differing opinions on its viability and the implications of the odds involved.

Contextual Notes

Participants express varying assumptions about the impact of the betting odds on the likelihood of losing streaks and the overall effectiveness of the martingale strategy. The discussion highlights the complexity of gambling probabilities and the potential for misunderstanding the risks involved.

iDimension
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Hello. I'm watching a twitch streamer and he is currently on one of those CSGO betting websites, if you don't know what that is it's fine, it's not important.

He is using a martingale system of betting and he started with $20,000 and is betting $0.20 each time. If he loses he doubles his bet, he keeps on doing this until he wins and then the bet starts at $0.20 again. Every win he gets he bets another $0.20.

His odds of winning each bet is 47.5% and the house has 52.5% chance of winning. In order for him to go broke, he would need to lose about 17times in a row right? I think it's less than that because it's not 50/50 chance. So odds of him losing around 17 bets in a row is 1/131,072 apparently... Is this correct?
 
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The number of bets he has to lose in a row is independent of the odds. The odds only decide how quickly he will lose everything on average. It is well known and analysed that you cannot beat the odds with this type of betting scheme. In the end you are betting a fortune just to regain what you already lost and 20 extra cents. However, it is very easy to fool yourself into thinking you are doing well.
 
Also, just the small difference from 50/50 makes a big difference in the odds to lose 17 in a row. It is closer to 1 in 57000. Compare this to the number of runs you would have to do to gain 20000 (the amount you are essentially wagering if committing to the betting system) which is 100000.
 
So just to clarify he would have to lose 17 in a row to go broke which is about 1 in 57,000 chance?
 
iDimension said:
So just to clarify he would have to lose 17 in a row to go broke which is about 1 in 57,000 chance?
Yes, but to reach the level when he actually makes as much as he is wagering, he would have to repeat 100000 cycles, meaning that in this time he will go broke almost twice on average. If he wants to double the money, it would be a better bet just to bet it all at once. If you have 20000, there are clearly better ways of investing those.
 
Putting it in a different perspective, if he commits he is making a 20000 bet with a gain of 0.2 if he wins. The expected value of this bet is roughly 0.2 - 20000/57000, which is clearly negative. I am sure he could find better odds some other way.
 
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