C/2013 A1: Weight Estimation & Final Trajectory

[Ottlite]

First post...Hi everyone.

Now that the Chelyabinsk meteor has been determined to be 700,000 tons and 56 feet in diameter, is there anyway of "guesstimating" how much inbound comet C/2013 A1 would weigh at approximately 50 kilometers in diameter? Also when would/could the final trajectory be determined as I understand it is now expected to be closer to Mars that earlier estimated.

I'm certain this forum is a far better source of astronomical information that MSNBC which are spouting the story.

 

[Borek]

Now that the Chelyabinsk meteor has been determined to be 700,000 tons and 56 feet in diameter

I am not convinced this is the final estimate, besides, it is irrelevant to the question:

is there anyway of "guesstimating" how much inbound comet C/2013 A1 would weigh at approximately 50 kilometers in diameter?

There is no simple comparison here - densities of meteoroids are definitely higher than densities of comets. According to wikipedia average density of comet nucleus is around 0.6 g/mL - that, plus the diameter, is enough to estimate mass.

 

[Mamasinham]

The thing I find astonishing about this comet relates to the 500km wide, 2km deep crater, that'll result from a direct impact. People around me are cooing in wonder, and saying things like: "Ooh, Ahhh, hope it hits, won't it look pretty." I, however, am furrowing my brow as deep as it'll go, at the thought of how much of Mars' surface, which used to occupy that crater, will be flung into the void, and sent tumbling through the inner solar system. We're surely in for a pummelling, too, if collision occurs. If not right away, then quite probably after from bits of it.