Calculate Interstellar Rock Orbit in Solar System

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Discussion Overview

The discussion centers around the feasibility of calculating the entire orbit of an interstellar rock that has entered the solar system, particularly focusing on the observational data available during its passage through the Oort Cloud and beyond. Participants explore the implications of gravitational interactions with other celestial bodies and the challenges of predicting long-term trajectories in a complex galactic environment.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation
  • Conceptual clarification
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants suggest that while it is possible to make observations and calculate an orbit based on data collected as the rock travels through the solar system, defining "entire orbit" and "interstellar piece of rock" requires clarification.
  • One participant proposes that a rough estimate of the rock's trajectory could be made, but emphasizes that the rock is likely to be influenced by the gravitational well of the solar system.
  • Another participant argues that calculating the entire orbit around the galaxy is impractical due to the complexity of interactions over long timescales, suggesting that only rough estimates can be achieved.
  • Some participants note that the gravitational influence of multiple bodies complicates the calculations, making precise predictions difficult and often requiring approximations.
  • There is a mention of the rarity of interstellar objects being captured by the solar system, with a suggestion that such objects typically pass through without significant alteration to their paths.
  • One participant highlights that while gravitational interactions can be modeled for two-body systems, adding more bodies complicates the equations significantly, leading to a reliance on numerical methods for approximations.
  • Another participant questions whether having an accurate galactic map would improve predictions of the rock's orbit, given the multitude of bodies that could affect it.
  • There is a discussion about the limitations of current knowledge regarding the orbits of outer planets and the challenges in predicting the rock's trajectory based solely on observations made within the solar system.
  • One participant mentions that three accurate positions in space and time could allow for orbit calculations, but acknowledges the complexity introduced by additional bodies.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a range of views, with no consensus reached on the ability to calculate a defined orbit for the interstellar rock. Some agree that rough estimates are possible, while others emphasize the significant uncertainties and complexities involved.

Contextual Notes

Limitations include the dependence on observational data quality, the complexity of gravitational interactions in a multi-body system, and the inherent uncertainties in long-term predictions of celestial trajectories.

Rohith8193
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Is it possible to calculate the entire orbit of an interstellar piece of rock that has entered our solar system from observing the parameters and trajectory of that rock exhibits while inside our solar system?
 
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I think you may need to define "entire orbit" and "interstellar piece of rock" a bit better.

For the most part yes, we'd make optical observations over time and calculate, to the best of our abilities, it's orbit.
 
Well the interstellar piece of rock is an asteroid that's been traveling in our galaxy. The scenario is this:
The rock has entered our solar system and we began our observations on it from the moment it entered the Oort Cloud. from that time to the time it leaves the Oort cloud we were able to get a lot of data on it(data pertaining to its velocity, etc etc). From this will we be able to calculate its entire orbit as it travels through the galaxy?
What i mean is which all star systems is it likely to go through and all?
I'm working on a sci fi short story and this has been bugging me because the galaxy is riddled with massive objects and all of them will interact with the rock, so will it have a steady orbit?
 
Rohith8193 said:
Well the interstellar piece of rock is an asteroid that's been traveling in our galaxy. The scenario is this:
The rock has entered our solar system and we began our observations on it from the moment it entered the Oort Cloud. from that time to the time it leaves the Oort cloud we were able to get a lot of data on it(data pertaining to its velocity, etc etc). From this will we be able to calculate its entire orbit as it travels through the galaxy?
What i mean is which all star systems is it likely to go through and all?
I'm working on a sci fi short story and this has been bugging me because the galaxy is riddled with massive objects and all of them will interact with the rock, so will it have a steady orbit?

Would we be able to get a rough guesstimate, yes. It's likely that such an object would end captured by our solar systems gravitational well.
 
Calculating the entire orbit around the galaxy is probably not reasonable. We're talking about 200 million years of interactions with billions of large objects. At best you'd get a rough estimate with no real way to know the details.

Student100 said:
Would we be able to get a rough guesstimate, yes. It's likely that such an object would end captured by our solar systems gravitational well.

It's unlikely to be captured by our solar system without some multi-body interactions that are pretty rare. It would most likely drift right by with only a change in direction.
 
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Consider this: it's possible to calculate every further and past position of a gravitationally interacting two-body system. Once you add the third body, the equations become impossible to solve, apart from certain restricted cases. All you can ever do then is make approximations.
 
The only object of consequence, gravitationally speaking, is the sun.
 
So there is no way of getting a defined orbit from just the data we obtain from the rock traveling through our solar system.
But if we had a an accurate Galactic map would we be able to predict the orbit taking into consideration all the bodies that could affect it?
Thanks for the replies till now :)
 
Rohith8193 said:
So there is no way of getting a defined orbit from just the data we obtain from the rock traveling through our solar system.
But if we had a an accurate Galactic map would we be able to predict the orbit taking into consideration all the bodies that could affect it?
Thanks for the replies till now :)

We don't even know the orbits of the outer planets without error. We could certainly learn a few things about the rock, where it came from, where it's going, a rough orbit (if it's orbiting anything and hasn't reached galactic escape velocities). There's actually been studies done looking for interstellar meteoroids in our solar system, six possible canadites were found with a confidence of σ3. No smoking gun to date that I'm aware of. The event must be extremely rare on human time scales.
 
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With three accurate positions of anything in 3space+time, one can calculate an orbit. If there is only one other body, then Newtonian mechanics will do - you can compute the equation that will place it precisely at any time forwards or backwards. If there are more than two bodies involved, then you can still do an numerical, iterative solution using the theory of perturbations.
 

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