Conditional expectation and variance

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The discussion focuses on calculating the conditional expectation E(X|Z) and variance V(X|Z) for independent exponential random variables X and Y with means 1 and 2, respectively. The variable Z is defined based on the comparison of X and Y, leading to two cases: Z=1 if X<Y and Z=0 otherwise. The calculations yield E[X|Z=1] = 1/9 and E[X|Z=0] = 8/9, resulting in an overall expectation E(X) = 17/27, which contradicts the known mean of X. Participants are questioning the computation of probabilities Pr{Z=0} and Pr{Z=1} to identify the source of the error.
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Let X, Y be independent exponential random variables with means 1 and 2 respectively.

Let
Z = 1, if X < Y
Z = 0, otherwise

Find E(X|Z) and V(X|Z).

We should first find E(X|Z=z)
E(X|Z=z) = integral (from 0 to inf) of xf(x|z).
However, how do we find f(x|z) ?
 
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Z is discrete. Since E[.|Z] and V[.|Z] are functions of Z, they too are discrete.

E[X|Z=1] = E[X|X<Y].
E[X|Z=0] = E[X|X>Y].

Similarly for V[X|Z].
 
I have found that

E[X|Z=1] = E[X|X<Y] = 1/9
E[X|Z=0] = E[X|X>Y] = 8/9
by integrating, and conditioning on the random variable Y.

So E(X) = E(E(X|Z)) = (1/9)(1/3) + (8/9)(2/3) = 17/27,

which contradicts the fact that E(X) = 1, for X exponential with mean 1.

I am wondering where is the error.
 
How are you computing Pr{Z=0} and Pr{Z=1}?
 
The standard _A " operator" maps a Null Hypothesis Ho into a decision set { Do not reject:=1 and reject :=0}. In this sense ( HA)_A , makes no sense. Since H0, HA aren't exhaustive, can we find an alternative operator, _A' , so that ( H_A)_A' makes sense? Isn't Pearson Neyman related to this? Hope I'm making sense. Edit: I was motivated by a superficial similarity of the idea with double transposition of matrices M, with ## (M^{T})^{T}=M##, and just wanted to see if it made sense to talk...

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