Do NBA Players Perform Better in Low-Tax States?

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Conklin and Daniel's study, "Taxes and Athletic Performance: Why NBA Players Perform Better in Low-Tax States," presents statistical evidence that higher state tax rates negatively impact NBA players' free throw performance. Analyzed data from 465 games showed that players from teams in low-tax states, such as the Cleveland Cavaliers and Denver Nuggets, achieved a free throw percentage of 77.04% in high-tax arenas, compared to 78.9% in zero-tax states. The study confirmed statistical significance with a p-value of 0.028, indicating a strong correlation between tax rates and performance.

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This summary copied from https://www.counterpunch.org/2023/07/25/289783/

In Taxes and Athletic Performance: Why NBA Players Perform Better in Low-Tax States, Conklin and Daniel introduce what they see as compelling statistical evidence that higher state tax rates cause NBA players to miss free throws that NBA players in low-tax states make.

Conklin and Daniel chose six teams from relatively low-tax states — the Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Charlotte Hornets, Indiana Pacers, Denver Nuggets, and Utah Jazz — and analyzed their free-throw percentages in away games against six teams in zero-income-tax states (Texas, Tennessee, and Florida) and nine teams in high-income-tax jurisdictions (New York, Oregon, Minnesota, California, and the District of Columbia).

In the resulting 465-game dataset, players from the six teams based in low-income-tax states made an average 77.04 percent on the free throws they shot in high-tax state arenas. These same players, when playing away games in a zero-tax state, averaged 78.9-percent makes.

Find that significant? Conklin and Daniel certainly did. They checked “for statistical significance” at the 95-percent level, they explain, with a “simple, two-sample regression analysis assuming equal variances” and had their sample’s statistical significance “confirmed with a p-value of 0.028, well under the required 0.05.”

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I know it's a nominee for the Ig Nobel because I nominated it. "By tradition, for balance, on the final day of deliberations, a random passerby is invited to help make the decision." I found out that while nominees have the option of quietly refusing the prize, this is seldom exercised. Indeed about 10-15% of winners are self-nominees. Many welcome the publicity. NHK had a special in which they interviewed Japanese Ig Nobel winners.

https://improbable.com/ig/about-the-ig-nobel-prizes/ig-nobel-nominations/
 
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What an excellent paper!

It would be interesting to look at pre-2015 Celtics data, as then Massachusetts was a so-called double tax state.
 
The Ig Noble people wrote back, "I can see why anyone, or at least the authors, would be impressed." They gave me my choice of a free back issue of their magazine. I chose the one on rotation. What kooky things could anyone do with rotation? Guess I'm going to find out.
 

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