Do NBA Players Perform Better in Low-Tax States?

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Conklin and Daniel's analysis in "Taxes and Athletic Performance: Why NBA Players Perform Better in Low-Tax States" presents statistical evidence suggesting that higher state tax rates negatively impact NBA players' free-throw performance. The study examined free-throw percentages of players from six teams in low-tax states during away games against teams in both zero-income-tax states and high-income-tax jurisdictions. The results showed that players from low-tax states made 77.04% of their free throws in high-tax arenas, compared to 78.9% in zero-tax states. The findings were statistically significant, with a p-value of 0.028, indicating a strong correlation between tax rates and athletic performance. The discussion also touched on the paper's nomination for the Ig Nobel Prize, highlighting the intersection of humor and serious research in the field.
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This summary copied from https://www.counterpunch.org/2023/07/25/289783/

In Taxes and Athletic Performance: Why NBA Players Perform Better in Low-Tax States, Conklin and Daniel introduce what they see as compelling statistical evidence that higher state tax rates cause NBA players to miss free throws that NBA players in low-tax states make.

Conklin and Daniel chose six teams from relatively low-tax states — the Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Charlotte Hornets, Indiana Pacers, Denver Nuggets, and Utah Jazz — and analyzed their free-throw percentages in away games against six teams in zero-income-tax states (Texas, Tennessee, and Florida) and nine teams in high-income-tax jurisdictions (New York, Oregon, Minnesota, California, and the District of Columbia).

In the resulting 465-game dataset, players from the six teams based in low-income-tax states made an average 77.04 percent on the free throws they shot in high-tax state arenas. These same players, when playing away games in a zero-tax state, averaged 78.9-percent makes.

Find that significant? Conklin and Daniel certainly did. They checked “for statistical significance” at the 95-percent level, they explain, with a “simple, two-sample regression analysis assuming equal variances” and had their sample’s statistical significance “confirmed with a p-value of 0.028, well under the required 0.05.”

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I know it's a nominee for the Ig Nobel because I nominated it. "By tradition, for balance, on the final day of deliberations, a random passerby is invited to help make the decision." I found out that while nominees have the option of quietly refusing the prize, this is seldom exercised. Indeed about 10-15% of winners are self-nominees. Many welcome the publicity. NHK had a special in which they interviewed Japanese Ig Nobel winners.

https://improbable.com/ig/about-the-ig-nobel-prizes/ig-nobel-nominations/
 
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What an excellent paper!

It would be interesting to look at pre-2015 Celtics data, as then Massachusetts was a so-called double tax state.
 
The Ig Noble people wrote back, "I can see why anyone, or at least the authors, would be impressed." They gave me my choice of a free back issue of their magazine. I chose the one on rotation. What kooky things could anyone do with rotation? Guess I'm going to find out.
 
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