Guess the number i bet you lose

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Discussion Overview

The thread discusses a game involving the search for sequences of four digits within a large pseudo-random sequence derived from the digits of Pi. Participants explore the probability of finding these sequences and share their results, while also considering the implications of Pi's conjectured normality.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Debate/contested
  • Mathematical reasoning

Main Points Raised

  • One participant presents a method for guessing four-digit sequences and calculating the expected frequency of occurrences based on probability.
  • Another participant shares their results, noting that their findings are below the expected average, raising questions about the normality of Pi.
  • A participant reports counting occurrences of all four-digit sequences and finds a distribution centered around 100, with a significant number of sequences occurring both below and above this average.
  • There is a mention of the conjecture that Pi is normal, with some participants expressing skepticism about consistently achieving statistically significant results that deviate from the expected average.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express varying views on the outcomes of their searches, with some finding results that align with the expected average while others do not. There is no consensus on the implications of these findings regarding the normality of Pi.

Contextual Notes

Participants note the importance of accounting for line breaks in the data, which affects the counting of sequences. The discussion also highlights the complexity of determining statistical significance in the context of this game.

Who May Find This Useful

Individuals interested in probability, statistics, and the properties of Pi may find this discussion engaging, particularly those exploring concepts of normality in mathematical constants.

antonio glez
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here you have 1.000.001 pseudo random secuence of digits:

wait for it to load fully:

http://www.eveandersson.com/pi/digits/1000000

the game is put a secunce of four numbers trying to guess it right like for example 3498 and count how many times the page searcher finds it for this case it would find it 108 times so i would have won 8%

odds say you should get right one hundred in a million of numbers:

probaility to get right a for digit decimal number:

1/(10*10*10*10)=1/10.000 and you try a million times so by probability you should get right 100

so if you get an avearge 110 in your four digit number search youve won an average of 10% but if you find an avearge of ninety% in your searches you lost 10%

please tell how do you do i think most will lose
IMPORTANT: TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THAT WHEN THE LINE BREAKS 3/50 SECUENCES ARE NOT COUNTED YOU HAVE TO ADD 6 TO EVERY RESULT YOU OBTAIN TO PLAY FAIRLY
 
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I'll take your word for it.
 
2298 is found 109 times
9617 is found 81
7841 is found 97
8283 is found 90

Looks like I'm losing so far.
Is Pi not conjectured (but unproven) to be normal? If Pi is normal, people should average nearly 100 finds if they were to conduct a bunch of trials.

It's an interesting game. If someone were ever to get an average higher or lower than 100 in a statistically significant sample size consistently, I would love to meet him/her, but I doubt that will occur. That would be one badass human calculator with the ability to search for a sequence very quickly.

Edit: Just FYI, I am aware that there's strong evidence that Pi is normal.
 
I had the computer count the number of occurrences of each sequence of 4 numbers, 0001 up to 9999, in the data linked to (after removing the line breaks). It shows a distribution nicely centred around 100.

4866 sequences occur less that 100 times
4741 sequences occur more that 100 times
(392 sequences occur 100 times)
 

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gerben said:
I had the computer count the number of occurrences of each sequence of 4 numbers, 0001 up to 9999, in the data linked to (after removing the line breaks). It shows a distribution nicely centred around 100.

4866 sequences occur less that 100 times
4741 sequences occur more that 100 times
(392 sequences occur 100 times)

[PLAIN]http://winblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/star-wars-halloween-costume-win.png
 
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