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How likely is a super solar flare?

  1. Jul 28, 2009 #1
    In the usual summer spate of disaster movies, I noted a new twist. An extraterrestrial disaster from a super solar flare by our sun. The astrophysicist, (played by Nicolas Cage but not very convincingly) states that he wrote a paper on the liklihood of such an event. The mechanism of disaster is the ripping away of our ozone layer and huge radiation dose. Although the special effects were inaccurate, I was wondering if there is any evidence to support such a cataclysmic solar flare? Can we extrapolate the magnitude needed to cause irreversible damage to the earth's ecosystems?
     
  2. jcsd
  3. Jul 28, 2009 #2

    Cyosis

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    You may find this an interesting read http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/06may_carringtonflare.htm?p [Broken]. Also check http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/21jan_severespaceweather.htm [Broken].
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 4, 2017
  4. Jul 28, 2009 #3
    thank you for that informative and entertaining reference.
     
  5. Jul 29, 2009 #4
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carolina_bays

    Evidence of cyclic massive solar coronal mass injections?


    There are curiously burn marks all over the Northern hemisphere that have been dated to the same time as a group and that have occur at different times.

    Based on the dating of the burn marks and assuming the burn marks and a concurrent cyclic abrupt change to the geomagnetic field that in turn causes an abrupt change to planetary temperature, is caused by a massive solar coronal mass ejection (CME), there would be roughly once in around 10000 years a solar event that results in multiple massive CME’s. I would assume, if the burn marks are the result of a solar event, that the charged particles in the CME are separated by the earth magnetic field creating a charge zones above the earth. Following that hypothesis the burn marks would be massive electrical discharges from the ionosphere to the planet’s surface. The electrical discharge hypothesis would explain why the Carolina Burn marks are elliptical and overlapping with an axis that points in the North-west direction. As the planet turns the arc makes and breaks creating over lapping burn marks with an elliptical axis. (Have a look at the observational evidence. What do you think?)


    This is the observational evidence (Carolina Bay burn marks and the Younger Dryas 12700 years ago burn marks) that requires explanation.

    http://www.pnas.org/content/104/41/16016/suppl/DC1#F7



    In addition to the peculiar regular elliptical shape of the Carolina Bay burn marks and unusually large number (i.e. A forest fire would not create elliptical burn marks. What could cause the very sharp edges of the burn marks? It seems difficult to image a comet that could break in 500,000 pieces.), the burn marks show other anomalous patterns. There is evidence of overlapping burn marks. There are very small intense burn marks mixed in with large burn marks. The burn marks are separated by areas that are not burned.

     
  6. Jul 29, 2009 #5
    This is more information and thoughts concerning my above comment.

    The Younger Dryas (12,900 yr BP) dated burn marks occur in multiple locations in North America and in Europe at different latitudes. In no case is there impact debris or a crater. I believe the magnetic microspherules are also caused by massive electrical arcs. (Such as that created by a nuclear detonation for example which also ionizes the air and to create an EMT pulse.)

    http://www.pnas.org/content/104/41/16016/suppl/DC1#F7


     
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