How Many People Can Perform Quantum Mechanical Calculations?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around estimating the number of individuals capable of performing quantum mechanical calculations. Participants explore various aspects of this topic, including the qualifications required, the scope of problems considered, and the geographical distribution of such expertise. The conversation touches on the complexity of quantifying this knowledge within the fields of physics, engineering, and related disciplines.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Debate/contested
  • Technical explanation

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants suggest that a significant portion of college-educated individuals, possibly around 40%, may have taken a course in quantum mechanics, but tracking this accurately would be challenging.
  • One participant recalls a past estimate of 2000 engineers capable of designing large-scale integrated circuits, expressing interest in historical contexts of quantum mechanics.
  • There is a distinction made between those who can perform quantum mechanical calculations and those who actively do so, with some participants questioning how to define "performing" these calculations.
  • Another participant humorously estimates the number of capable individuals as 11,348, though they acknowledge the arbitrary nature of this figure.
  • Concerns are raised about the difficulty in obtaining precise data and the variability in what constitutes the ability to perform quantum mechanical calculations.
  • Some participants express skepticism about the feasibility of the original request for estimates, suggesting it may lead to unreliable data.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants do not reach a consensus on the number of individuals capable of performing quantum mechanical calculations. There are multiple competing views on how to define capability and the challenges in estimating such figures.

Contextual Notes

Participants highlight the ambiguity in defining what it means to "perform" quantum mechanical calculations, which complicates the estimation process. There is also recognition of the need for specific parameters to yield meaningful estimates.

Chas Tennis
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TL;DR Summary: Quantum mechanical calculations are complex and the number of people capable of performing them is limited. In this thread, rough estimates are requested for the number of people that perform quantum mechanical calculations.

Please estimate - somehow - the number of people that can perform quantum mechanical calculations, in a sub-field, on a problem, in a country or world wide, whatever is informative....

For orientation, here are American Institute of Physics statistics on PhDs in Physics granted vs year.
https://www.aip.org/statistics/reports/trends-physics-phds-171819

See Figure 1 Physics PhDs Conferred in the US, 1900 through 2019
See Figure 6 on Sub-Fields, See "Quantum Foundations"

Finding the number of Physics PhDs in the US in a sub-field related to Quantum Mechanics would be a start.

I would like to get a rough idea of how many people have a high level of knowledge of quantum mechanics calculations. In particular, when a particular problem is discussed how many people world wide are capable of doing the quantum mechanical calculations?

Then, finally to know in a sub-field and on a particular problem in quantum mechanics, how many people more locally can do the calculations?

Please include any comments on how you estimated, including the sub-field, problem, country, suggestions, links for evidence, etc..
 
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Chas Tennis said:
TL;DR Summary: Quantum mechanical calculations are complex and the number of people capable of performing them is limited. In this thread, rough estimates are requested for the number of people that perform quantum mechanical calculations.

Please estimate - somehow - the number of people that can perform quantum mechanical calculations, in a sub-field, on a problem, in a country or world wide, whatever is informative....

For orientation, here are American Institute of Physics statistics on PhDs in Physics granted vs year.
https://www.aip.org/statistics/reports/trends-physics-phds-171819

See Figure 1 Physics PhDs Conferred in the US, 1900 through 2019
See Figure 6 on Sub-Fields, See "Quantum Foundations"

Finding the number of Physics PhDs in the US in a sub-field related to Quantum Mechanics would be a start.

I would like to get a rough idea of how many people have a high level of knowledge of quantum mechanics calculations. In particular, when a particular problem is discussed how many people world wide are capable of doing the quantum mechanical calculations?

Then, finally to know in a sub-field and on a particular problem in quantum mechanics, how many people more locally can do the calculations?

Please include any comments on how you estimated, including the sub-field, problem, country, suggestions, links for evidence, etc..
May I ask why you would like to know? It sounds like a seriously intensive search, and liable to a lot of noisy data. Is there a specific kind of problem you would like to ask about? I mean, anyone that has even taken (not just passed) a Modern Physics course would qualify for your overall question, so just about any Physicist and most Engineers would be included, as well as anyone else with the Mathematical "backbone" who might have been curious enough to take the class, which is likely to include a significant fraction of Mathematicians. Then add in a (probably) good chunk of Biologists, most Chemists, anyone who has studied Nuclear Medicine... the list goes on and on.

At a (very) rough estimate, maybe some 40 percent of people that have gone to College have probably taken this course or some equivalent in their field. You aren't ever going to be able to track that without an enormous amount of work. Then you want to focus on who can do what sort of problem and where they might be? I hope some is paying to do this, because it's going to become a career!

-Dan
 
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In the 1980s, a speaker at a conference said that 'There are 2000 engineers in the US that can design large scale integrated circuits.' I have always liked that crisp estimate.

I have been reading about the early history of quantum mechanics and wondering about the number of scientists and mathematicians involved at that time. For that history, I recommend the book Einstein and the Quantum (2013), A. Douglas Stone. The author emphasizes the period where Einstein was involved with QM, but did not publish much in QM.
 
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topsquark said:
..........................................................

At a (very) rough estimate, maybe some 40 percent of people that have gone to College have probably taken this course or some equivalent in their field. You aren't ever going to be able to track that without an enormous amount of work. Then you want to focus on who can do what sort of problem and where they might be? I hope some is paying to do this, because it's going to become a career!

-Dan
Let's say that people that set up and worked QM problems would be counted.

Let's say that taking a QM course with provided problems would not be counted.
 
You seem to switch between asking about the number who can and the number who do. I can, but I don't. Do I count?
 
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Chas Tennis said:
I would like to get a rough idea of how many people have a high level of knowledge of quantum mechanics calculations.
Why? Why do you care?
 
Define "can perform quantum mechanical calculations".
 
Haborix said:
You seem to switch between asking about the number who can and the number who do. I can, but I don't. Do I count?
You could post what you as an individual can do if you like, please give an example problem or two. Those examples would be very interesting.

If you mean
1) solving QM course or test problems that were presented to you
VS
2) your selecting what was needed and setting up QM calculations, note that.
 
Chas Tennis said:
I have always liked that crisp estimate.
There are 11,348.

My estiimation methodology was to write down numbers on a piece of paper until I saw one that I liked, and then drew a box around it.
 
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Vanadium 50 said:
There are 11,348.

My estiimation methodology was to write down numbers on a piece of paper until I saw one that I liked, and then drew a box around it.
You would have us believe that it just so happens 1*(1+3+4)=8? Tell us your real methodology, sir!

On a more serious note, as @topsquark explained, without a very precise set of parameters we can all just start cooking up numbers. And even with those parameters, it would be very hard to get dig up all the data to get an answer.
 
  • #11
Can we take this question to the ministry of silly questions and get an opinion? Where is John Cleese when we really need him?
 
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