Is Scientific Progress Linear or Exponential?

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Nusc
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Does anyone know of where I can find a model on scientific revolutions and technology on a timescale?

Would you expect it to be linear or exponential?
 
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Would mods move this to the more appropriate section?
 
Exponential of course.
 
Yeah that's what I insisted based on the history of science and the conclusion from Moore's law but I want to see if it has actually been modeled.