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OPEC could ditch dollars for euros

  1. Feb 9, 2008 #1

    EnumaElish

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    http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080209/bs_afp/opeccommoditiesoilcurrency

    If the dollar fell x% since Friday then the probability that OPEC will switch to euros can be calculated from:

    current value of $ = $'s value (say) at noon on Friday * Prob{OPEC will not abandon $} + $'s value if OPEC abandons it * (1- Prob{OPEC will not abandon $}),

    provided "$'s value if OPEC abandons it" can be assigned a quantity. E.g. if "$'s value if OPEC abandons it" = 0 (for demonstrative purposes) then:

    Prob{OPEC will not abandon $} = (current value of $) / ($'s value at noon on Friday) = 1 - x.
     
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2008
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  3. Feb 9, 2008 #2

    mgb_phys

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    If OPEC switches to euros then the US has to pay for oil in real money instead of printing it so the probability can be calculated from :

    1 - (number of US troops in your country propping up your regime + number of US troops next door ready to invade your country if you piss them off ).
     
  4. Feb 9, 2008 #3
    One of the perceived reasons for the Iraqi war starting is because Saddam wanted to switch from Dollars to Euros. We couldn't let that happen, now could we?
     
  5. Feb 9, 2008 #4

    mgb_phys

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    So probably not looking good for Iran's Euro based oil bourse then?
     
  6. Feb 9, 2008 #5
    Not a big surprise.
     
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