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Peter Schiff's Economic Strategies

  1. Sep 5, 2011 #1

    Pythagorean

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    I'm really just wanting to hear an analysis of Schiff strategies.

    Schiff is coined as the guy that predicted the crash (YouTube: Peter Schiff was right).

    What do our local economic experts think of Schiff's strategies in general? Would you throw in with him?
     
  2. jcsd
  3. Sep 5, 2011 #2
    Schiff has usually been wrong in most details. He predicted a housing bubble/US equity market crash, but he also predicted hyperinflation, and that the rest of the world would be largely unaffected by a huge US slow down (decoupling). He also predicted rising gold. So he has two things right, and a lot more wrong.

    If you took big bets on these positions, you would have lost money, even in 2008/2009 if you bet heavy against the bubble. Schiff seems to be a classic case of being right about the bubble for the wrong reasons (he was right about the bubble, but his economic model is wrong on every detail).
     
  4. Sep 5, 2011 #3
    If there are a million pundits around the world making predictions there will always be someone(s) somewhere that will get something right. Unless they have a (long) track record you can put it down to luck.
     
  5. Sep 5, 2011 #4
    Another thing even if they have a track record it might still be down to luck. High risk leads to potentially higher variable (as opposed to expected) returns but only winners advertise so no one attributes success to luck when there may in fact be magnitude more number of people who adopt same risk strategy but lose.
     
  6. Sep 7, 2011 #5
    For this of us not familiar with his strategies are can you please enlighten us as to what those stratagies are then we can say how sound we think they are.
     
  7. Sep 8, 2011 #6

    Pythagorean

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    I don't know enough about economics to detail his strategy. In interviews, it sounds like he prefers foreign markets (thinks US economy is sinking ship and we should let it just fall and crash, then rebuild it, rather than trying to drag it out) and he likes real value; not bubbly things. Here is his investment company if you're interested in seeing more details about his philosophy:

    http://www.europac.net/
     
  8. Sep 8, 2011 #7
    I might take a look. Investing in foriegn markets can give high gains but you face more Black Swan Type Risks. Changes in political climate can cause one to completly lose their assets. I read recently in a forum comment that the original "invisable hand" by Adam Smith was one where industry prefered to set up most of their operations close to home because they liked there wealth close to hand where it was safe. With the exensive rise in large Multinational companies we see that a large amount of trust has grown in international commerse but will this stability last forever?
     
  9. Sep 8, 2011 #8

    BWV

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  10. Sep 8, 2011 #9

    Pyrrhus

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    I usually stay away from these threads, because "everyone can do economics". That is the case of Peter Schiff, and several heterodoxies so-called "economists".

    If you want proof that Peter Schiff didn't know what he was doing, just listen to his rebuttal in site provided by BMW. It is preposterous when he cites "conspiracy theory" ("my forecast didn't come true...") against his forecasts :rolleyes:
     
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