Rugby World Cup Updates and Predictions: Who Will Win the 2019 Tournament?

[qspeechc]

Ok, I know it's very late in the tournament to be starting a thread like this, but better late than never!

The quarter-finals were quite strange. My predictions before they start was Ireland and England would win, and I couldn't decide between the Aussies and the South Africans. It was quite obvious NZ would beat Argentina.

Looking back, Wales were unlucky to lose to SA in the group stages, but Ireland did beat the Aussies and they were both looking very good in the group stages.

And what can we say about France. They surprise us almost every world cup! England have been mediocre this tournament, and Johnny Wilkinson's kicking hasn't been great, so he blames it on the ball, lol.

Wales will definitely beat France in the semis.

And that Aussie SA game was strange. SA dominated almost everything, except turn-overs. They had something like 70% territory, and Australia had to make nearly 3 times as many tackles! Terrific game, even though it was low-scoring.

It looks like a Wales - NZ final. Perhaps the All Blacks will finally win it, and on home soil too.

 

[phinds]

I had to look up "RWC" so that probably gives you a clue about whether or not I've been watching.

 

[Danger]

I don't have the energy to look it up. What the hell is it?

 

[humanino]

Rugby World Cup

 

[Danger]

Ahhh...

 

[phinds]

Well after about 10 hrs with no one saying they HAD, I'd hazzard a guess that this formum is not chockablock with rugby fans.

 

[Ken Natton]

Hmmm. There are some people here watcing the Rugby World Cup and there has even already been a thread on this sub-forum about it. But, as seems to happen so often, it died a death a soon as I contributed to it...

 

[qspeechc]

Wow, so that means what, that there is no one here from Britain, Ireland, France, Italy, Argentina, South Africa, Australia, New Zealnad?

 

[apeiron]

Wow, so that means what, that there is no one here from Britain, Ireland, France, Italy, Argentina, South Africa, Australia, New Zealnad?

As Ken says, we had a brief flurry of predictions in this thread...
https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=536326

Great bunch of quarter-finals. Confounded my predictions anyway.

We had a 5.5 quake about 5 minutes into the All Black match. As if the tension levels needed raising!

 

[fuzzyfelt]

As Ken says, we had a brief flurry of predictions in this thread...
https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=536326

Great bunch of quarter-finals. Confounded my predictions anyway.

We had a 5.5 quake about 5 minutes into the All Black match. As if the tension levels needed raising!

Wow. Interesting outcomes!

 

[qspeechc]

Wow. That was a short-lived thread. I guess no one really likes rugby here.

 

[Ken Natton]

I’ll tell you what apeiron, let’ s have the old quad-yearly discussion about just why it is that the All Blacks are so good. Watching that quarter final the other morning, I was struck by a very familiar feeling. Let’s be clear, Argentina are a damn good team, and they didn’t make it easy for New Zealand. There is a feeling that the final score line was unkind to Argentina. But even for someone like me who lays no claim to being an expert, it isn’t difficult to notice that, when they have the ball, the All Blacks are a cut above. Many have pointed out before that a key part of it is all about staying on their feet and not going to ground too easily. Sometimes some of them do have an extraordinary ability to stay upright in the face of all attempts to bring them down. But it is also about support, the man with the ball always has someone in exactly the right position to take the pass, and it also seems to be much more frequent that the man being tackled manages to get the ball away before he hits the deck and keeps the phase going than is the case with any other team. Perhaps not every pass, but a very high proportion of passes are fast and accurate. There are other teams that have impressed, I fully accept that the French deserved their victory over England, they did look very good, particularly in the early part of the match, and I think that either France or Wales are likely to give New Zealand a very good final. Over the years I have heard various theories, some with more merit than others, but I am not sure anyone has ever put their finger on just why it is that New Zealand repeatedly produces such great rugby teams.

 

[apeiron]

I’ll tell you what apeiron, let’ s have the old quad-yearly discussion about just why it is that the All Blacks are so good.

Main reason would have to be that NZers take rugby more seriously than anyone else - though Wales would be up there. It is part of the settler myth that Kiwis were bigger, harder, tougher than Mother England. Rugby and war were the two ways of proving it. Teams like the Invincibles made the All Blacks central to NZ identity.

The New Zealand rugby union team which toured the United Kingdom, Ireland, France and Canada in 1924–25 was nicknamed ‘The Invincibles’ after it won all 32 of its games overseas. The tour included test matches against Ireland, England, Wales, and France. Overall the team scored 838 points and conceded only 116.

So NZ is very used to beating everyone. And then like perhaps the Dutch and Brazilians in soccer, winning becomes not enough. The public demand that the team wins with style.

There is the polynesian dimension - Maori and islanders have traditionally been flair players. Again, part of their culture. And that has become wedded to Anglo pragmatism.

So now you have what you saw - flair that is not just individual inspiration but the result of much team practice. Many of the moves are plays that have been rehearsed.

Australia of course would be the best, except they divide their rugby talent between union, league and rules. (Though we beat them even in league reasonably often now - again with flair players).

You probably didn't realize also how many Kiwi players are in the teams of other nations. So 15 of the Samoan squad are NZ raised (coached and play here). And 7 of the Tongan team. Even 6 of the Japanese team!

 

[qspeechc]

NZ of course takes a lot of players from the island nations itself (Fiji, Samoa, Tonga).

Not to be rude or anything, but I'd like to keep this thread about the World Cup please.

Argentina is pretty good, I wouldn't go so far as to say they are "damn good". They are currently ranked 8th in the world:
http://www.irb.com/rankings/full.html

France have had a bad tournament, but one good half of rugby against England, who themselves have been mediocre. It is unlikely France will bother NZ if they meet in the final, which is itself not likely. Wales have looked a much better team so far. They should have beat SA, and they beat a good Ireland team by quite a bit.

Wales should beat France in the semis, and that might put them about SA in the rankings, 3rd overall. France will probably stay at no.5

 

[Oldfart]

To assist the rugby-challenged, there are several games on channel 464 (at least if you have Verizon in northern Virginia) this Sunday afternoon and games this Thursday and Saturday.

I only know about this because I met a woman in a Welsh pub a while back. She's now my wife and a US citizen.

 

[Ken Natton]

Some semi-finals huh? Whatever the rights and wrongs of the referee’s decision, it remains a great pity that the focus is on that incident in the Wales v France semi. Wales were dominating up to that point, and you have to think that they probably would have won but for that. Even if you see it as a right decision, it still makes it the thing that cost them their place in the final. The occasion was diminished by that one moment.

Whatever Australia v New Zealand was, it certainly was not diminished! Full blooded would be something of an understatement. But for all my singing the praises of New Zealand in my earlier post, it has to be said that neither side kicked well. And I’m not just talking about the missed penalties and conversion. The miss hit drop goal attempt by the New Zealand full-back was out of place in that match, but there was also more than one occasion when the same player kicked from hand and got too much height and not enough distance. I suppose it is just a symptom of the pressure of the occasion. And ultimately, New Zealand as a team exerted more and withstood it better. I can’t see the French giving New Zealand as much of a hard time in the final.

 

[fuzzyfelt]

A pity about Wales. New Zealand played really well in a good game. Good luck to NZ and France next week-end!

 

[qspeechc]

Yes. France barely beat a 14 man Wales, with a one man advantage for 60 minutes! The red card was deserved, I think. No blaming the ref. Red cards do spoil a game, especially in a knock-out game, but then these are professionals, and they must not go about doing things that could earn them a red card and then mumble and grumble when the ref gives them one. France still look like a rubbish team to me, and I am going to say NZ will beat them by 25 points at least in the final.

NZ were clearly better than Australia in the other semi, and the NZ kicking looked much better than the Aussie's to me.

The Wales and Australia 3rd and 4th place game should be interesting. Despite Aus. getting this far they have not looked good all tournament, and Wales actually deserve to be in the finals.