Sociology of Physics: comment and indices

marcus · Jul 17, 2011

To get a mid-July string topfive salesrank average, tracking the popularization market:
12 July 1390
13 July 1234
14 July 1163
15 July 1488
16 July 1156
17 July 969
18 July ...

Updating the other indices:

Number of recent string papers making the top fifty in the annual Spires HEP topcite list

Code:

year (some omitted for brev.)   2001    2003    2005    2007    2009    2010  
recent work highly cited in year  12       6       2       1       1       0

A paper is counted as recent if it appeared in the previous five years. This gauges the quality/significance of current work by how other researchers receive it.

Annual first-time faculty hires (US and Canada) in HEP theory as a whole, and in string, averaged over 3 year periods, with prelim. estim. for 2011

Code:

period                   1999-2001    2002-2004   2005-2007    2008-2010    2011
annual HEP theory hires    18           24          23           13          11 
annual string hires         9            8           6            2           0

Registered participants in the annual conference (some years omitted for brevity)

Code:

Strings 2003 Kyoto     396
Strings 2005 Toronto   415
Strings 2007 Madrid    440
Strings 2009 Rome      450
Strings 2010 Texas A&M 193
Strings 2011 Uppsala   265

Links to sources:
2001 http://www.slac.stanford.edu/spires/topcites/2001/annual.shtml (twelve)
2003 http://www.slac.stanford.edu/spires/topcites/2003/annual.shtml (six)
2005 http://www.slac.stanford.edu/spires/topcites/2005/annual.shtml (two)
2007 http://www.slac.stanford.edu/spires/topcites/2007/annual.shtml (one)
2009 http://www.slac.stanford.edu/spires/topcites/2009/annual.shtml (one)
2010 http://www.slac.stanford.edu/spires/topcites/2010/annual.shtml (zero)

http://www.physics.utoronto.ca/~poppitz/Jobs94-08
http://www.math.columbia.edu/~woit/wordpress/?p=3715
http://particle.physics.ucdavis.edu/rumor/doku.php

http://www-conference.slu.se/strings2011/
https://www.akademikonferens.se/list.jsf?conf=strings2011-S

marcus · Jul 18, 2011

As of noon 18 July the five most popular string books at Amazon (e-elegant, hidden, e-hidden, grand, e-grand) ranked 783, 1204, 1353, 1651, 1994, for an average of 1397.

To get a mid-July string topfive salesrank average, tracking the popularization market:
12 July 1390
13 July 1234
14 July 1163
15 July 1488
16 July 1156
17 July 969
18 July 1397

1257 is the mid-month average for July. Here's the record of mid-month string salesrank averages.

Code:

Midmonth averages of string topfive salesranks
(recorded at Pacific noon on several days around the 15th of each month)

January 2007:     4396
February 2007:    3789
November 2008:    3711
July 2009:        6485  
March 2010:       7521
April 2010:      11983
May 2010:         6884
June 2010:        9731
July 2010:        8461
August 2010:      9606
September 2010:   1060 
October 2010:     1344
November 2010     2220
December 2010     2705
January 2011      1252
February 2011      223
March 2011         349
April 2011         649
May 2011           676
June 2011         1153
July 2011         1257

Interest slumped during March-August 2010 (high salesranks) and then shot up in September 2010 (Hawking multiverse book) and in January 2011 (Greene multiverse book).
The two popular multiverse books (Grand Design, Hidden Reality) are not primarily about stringy ideas of unification but they do invoke the string "Landscape" of possible versions of physics (stringy thought does not nail down or determine anyone version of basic particle physics, but allows a vast range of possible versions.) Making the best of this defect, some have suggested that perhaps all these possibilities are realized somewhere in nature---i.e. in a "multiverse". This IMO is more fantasy than science, but it permits one to continue regarding string/M formalism as a theory of nature. The multiverse excitement may be abating, judging from recent trends, but it is really too early to say.

marcus · Jul 20, 2011

You can see from the longterm record that there is currently an uptrend in the salesranks, back towards levels prior to September 2010---ie before the latest Hawking and Greene books appeared. Today 20 July at noon the stringy top five ( e-elegant, grand, e-hidden, hidden, elegant ) ranked 1221, 1738, 1894, 2395, 3389, for an average of 2127. Amazon ranks e-books separately so their ranks as books must be estimated from where they occur among the regular books on the physics bestseller list.

marcus · Jul 27, 2011

The string midmonth salesrank average for July was 1257. As a spot check, to see how it was doing, I looked today at noon 27 July and it was 1440.

That breaks down like this: the five most popular string books were e-elegant, hidden, grand, e-hidden, elegant, 4 for Greene and 1 for Hawking. 2 regular string and 3 multiverse (which promotes string to a possible theory of nature because it has room for the many different string versions of physics, and is thus a string-friendly vision.)

The ranks were 669, 1249, 1457, 1712, 2111 for an average of 1440.

Multiverse speculation tends to be shut out of regular annual Strings conferences, but it is popular with the general public. So it got minimal attention at the recent Strings 2011 actual conference, but outside there was a public lecture about it. Also little or no attention by the professional in regular session at Strings 2008, 2009, 2010. But sometimes stuff for the public on the outside. A curious split of emphasis.

See post 241 (three posts back from here) for indices tracking the interest and activity of actual string researchers as opposed to the popular book market.

marcus · Jul 30, 2011

Significant developments at the professional level can be summarized by saying that faculty hires for string are way down. (First-time faculty hires in Usa+Canada at or near zero this year.)
See post #241 above.

The annual string conference attendance has fallen off, and at the last one few of the talks were actually about string/M---people were asking "where are the strings?" and speculating as to the significance of that.

Annual citations to recent string/M research papers are sharply down from their earlier (say 2001-2003) levels.

On an anecdotal, individual level one can see a tendency for prominent string researchers to get out of the field and into related or neighboring areas of research. Perhaps "string-inspired" but not actually dealing with string brane and space with extra rolled-up dimensions. String unification seems to have been side-tracked or put on hold, with more emphasis on finding applications of the math tools in other areas. One hears a more sophisticated view that the string pictures may not necessarily be how the world is but rather one analytical approach---convenient in some context but not essential or fundamental.

There has also been some shift in views on Supersymmetry recently. Since signs of SUSY have not been showing up at the CERN collider. Quotes from string theorists have been assembled in this blog post.
http://www.math.columbia.edu/~woit/wordpress/?p=3864

===================

At the level of general public interest, string popularity in the book market, which is now focused mainly on multiverse thinking, has been running around 1600. Already up some from the mid-July average of 1257.

At noon on Thursday, Friday, Saturday (28, 29, 30 July) the saleranks of the five most popular string books averaged 1657, 1654, 1594.
The top five have tended to be e-elegant, grand, hidden, e-hidden, e-grand with little variation.

marcus · Aug 3, 2011

Not useful as a statistical index (or so I've concluded) but perhaps a handy snapshot of current topics in string research. Harvard abstracts database search using keywords: superstring, M-theory, brane, AdS/CFT, compactification, heterotic

First six months of 2010
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/n...txt_wgt=YES&ttl_sco=YES&txt_sco=YES&version=1

First six months of 2011
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/n...txt_wgt=YES&ttl_sco=YES&txt_sco=YES&version=1

The Spires database has cataloguing done by human librarians. The Harvard system seems simply to use occurrences of words in the title or abstract---tagging is done by machine in other words. Whatever the reason, the results are different.

Here's a Spires search using (human-applied) keywords "string model" and "membrane model":
2002:
http://www-library.desy.de/cgi-bin/spiface/find/hep/www?rawcmd=FIND+%28DK+STRING+MODEL+OR+DK+MEMBRANE+MODEL%29+AND+DATE+%3D2002&FORMAT=www&SEQUENCE= (1783)
2009:
http://www-library.desy.de/cgi-bin/spiface/find/hep/www?rawcmd=FIND+%28DK+STRING+MODEL+OR+DK+MEMBRANE+MODEL%29+AND+DATE+%3D2009&FORMAT=www&SEQUENCE= (1036)
2010:
http://www-library.desy.de/cgi-bin/spiface/find/hep/www?rawcmd=FIND+%28DK+STRING+MODEL+OR+DK+MEMBRANE+MODEL%29+AND+DATE+%3D2010&FORMAT=www&SEQUENCE= (935)
2011:
http://www-library.desy.de/cgi-bin/spiface/find/hep/www?rawcmd=FIND+%28DK+STRING+MODEL+OR+DK+MEMBRANE+MODEL%29+AND+DATE+%3D2011&FORMAT=www&SEQUENCE= (500)

I think the point of a search like this is not to get "ALL" of some category of research paper that you imagine in your head and you think is the right definition of string research. The point, I guess, is to apply the same test repeatedly and see if there is change and see if you can understand it. Here the test is what the DESY librarians classify a certain way, and one can only hope that their criteria are stable over the years.

BTW at noon 3 August the salesranks of the top five string books (e-elegant, grand, hidden, e-hidden, e-grand) averaged 2202. Still a long way to go before that index gets back up to its pre-September 2010 levels, that pertained before the two big multiverse books appeared.

marcus · Aug 13, 2011

Among indices of professional research activity a small but interesting one is the number of Loop phenomenology papers (related to observational testing) that have appeared post-2008 (i.e. 2009 and later). This search picks up a number of them, probably not all. Testing (using observations of the early universe) is crucial. So even though this only involves a few dozen papers, it is an indicator to watch.

http://www-library.desy.de/cgi-bin/spiface/find/hep/www?rawcmd=FIND+%28DK+LOOP+SPACE+AND+%28QUANTUM+GRAVITY+OR+QUANTUM+COSMOLOGY%29+%29+AND+%28GRAVITATIONAL+RADIATION+OR+PRIMORDIAL+OR+INFLATION+OR+POWER+SPECTRUM+OR+COSMIC+BACKGROUND+RADIATION%29+AND+DATE%3E2008&FORMAT=www&SEQUENCE=ds%28d%29

Here's a Spires search tracking Loop gravity research publication using DESY keywords for spinfoam, loop quantum gravity, loop quantum cosmology. Evidently the figure for 2011 is incomplete. I made the search for the same years tabulated for string in the preceding post, just for comparison's sake.

2002 http://www-library.desy.de/cgi-bin/spiface/find/hep/www?rawcmd=FIND+DK+SPIN%2CFOAM+OR+QUANTUM+GRAVITY%2C+LOOP+SPACE+OR+QUANTUM+COSMOLOGY%2C+LOOP+SPACE+AND+DATE+%3D+2002+&FORMAT=WWW&SEQUENCE= (25)
2009 http://www-library.desy.de/cgi-bin/spiface/find/hep/www?rawcmd=FIND+DK+SPIN%2CFOAM+OR+QUANTUM+GRAVITY%2C+LOOP+SPACE+OR+QUANTUM+COSMOLOGY%2C+LOOP+SPACE+AND+DATE+%3D+2009+&FORMAT=WWW&SEQUENCE= (142)
2010 http://www-library.desy.de/cgi-bin/spiface/find/hep/www?rawcmd=FIND+DK+SPIN%2CFOAM+OR+QUANTUM+GRAVITY%2C+LOOP+SPACE+OR+QUANTUM+COSMOLOGY%2C+LOOP+SPACE+AND+DATE+%3D+2010+&FORMAT=WWW&SEQUENCE= (154)
2011 http://www-library.desy.de/cgi-bin/spiface/find/hep/www?rawcmd=FIND+DK+SPIN%2CFOAM+OR+QUANTUM+GRAVITY%2C+LOOP+SPACE+OR+QUANTUM+COSMOLOGY%2C+LOOP+SPACE+AND+DATE+%3D+2011+&FORMAT=WWW&SEQUENCE= (112)

The possible significance here is not the absolute numbers but the change over time, assuming the librarians apply their keyword categories consistently each year. DESY keywords are applied by hand, not by machine. You probably can't get ALL the papers you imagine to be in whatever category, but you can see how the number changes.

Here's a Spires search using the DESY library's keywords "string model" and "membrane model":
2002 http://www-library.desy.de/cgi-bin/spiface/find/hep/www?rawcmd=FIND+%28DK+STRING+MODEL+OR+DK+MEMBRANE+MODEL%29+AND+DATE+%3D2002&FORMAT=www&SEQUENCE= (1783)
2009 http://www-library.desy.de/cgi-bin/spiface/find/hep/www?rawcmd=FIND+%28DK+STRING+MODEL+OR+DK+MEMBRANE+MODEL%29+AND+DATE+%3D2009&FORMAT=www&SEQUENCE= (1037)
2010 http://www-library.desy.de/cgi-bin/spiface/find/hep/www?rawcmd=FIND+%28DK+STRING+MODEL+OR+DK+MEMBRANE+MODEL%29+AND+DATE+%3D2010&FORMAT=www&SEQUENCE= (935)
2011 http://www-library.desy.de/cgi-bin/spiface/find/hep/www?rawcmd=FIND+%28DK+STRING+MODEL+OR+DK+MEMBRANE+MODEL%29+AND+DATE+%3D2011&FORMAT=www&SEQUENCE= (529)

This is as of 13 August, evidently the 2011 figure will increase as the year progresses.
If you want a very rough estimate of the final figure you can multiply the current one by 12/7.5 since at this point about 7.5 of the 12 months are in.

For other indices connected with professional research and faculty jobs, see post #241 in this thread:
https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?p=3407914#post3407914

=======
The main indicator of wide audience interest we have been watching is the string topfive Amazon salesrank average.
At noon 13 August the five most popular stringy books (grand, e-elegant, e-grand, e-hidden, hidden) ranked 752, 1198, 1501, 2408, 3547 for an average of 1881.

The corresponding topfive average at noon 12 August was 1757. I'm planning to record a midmonth average as I've done in the past.

12 August 1757
13 August 1881
14 August
15 August
16 August
17 August
18 August

The most popular stringy books tend to involve imagining multiverses rather than explaining string theory per se. Stephen Hawking's The Grand Design is especially popular in the wake of his prominent role in a TV series called "Curiosity".

Here's what that index has looked like for the past year. September 2010 was when Hawking's grand design multiverse book came out.

Code:

Midmonth averages of string topfive salesranks
(recorded at Pacific noon on several days around the 15th of each month)

August 2010:      9606
September 2010:   1060 
October 2010:     1344
November 2010     2220
December 2010     2705
January 2011      1252
February 2011      223
March 2011         349
April 2011         649
May 2011           676
June 2011         1153
July 2011         1257

marcus · Aug 15, 2011

To update something in the previous post,

12 August 1757
13 August 1881
14 August 1371
15 August 1831
16 August
17 August
18 August

At noon 15 August the top five stringy books (grand, e-elegant, hidden, e-grand, elegant) ranked 1023, 1436, 1769, 2015, 2914, for an average of 1831

marcus · Aug 17, 2011

12 August 1757
13 August 1881
14 August 1371
15 August 1831
16 August 2244
17 August 2618
18 August

At Pacific noon 17 August the top five stringy books (grand, e-elegant, e-grand, hidden, elegant) ranked 1546, 1797, 2443, 3472, 3833, for an average of 2618.

marcus · Aug 18, 2011

At Pacfic noon 18 August the string top five (e-elegant, grand, e-grand, hidden, elegant) ranked
1736, 1762, 2661, 3319, 4405, for an average of 2777. This makes our 7-day mid-month average for August come out to 2068.

Code:

Midmonth averages of string topfive salesranks
(recorded at Pacific noon on several days around the 15th of each month)

January 2007:     4396
February 2007:    3789
November 2008:    3711
July 2009:        6485  
March 2010:       7521
April 2010:      11983
May 2010:         6884
June 2010:        9731
July 2010:        8461
August 2010:      9606
September 2010:   1060 
October 2010:     1344
November 2010     2220
December 2010     2705
January 2011      1252
February 2011      223
March 2011         349
April 2011         649
May 2011           676
June 2011         1153
July 2011         1257
August 2011       2068

marcus · Aug 26, 2011

Learning how to use Inspire search, which will be replacing Spires.

type this into the box:
keyword:"quantum gravity: loop space" OR "quantum cosmology: loop space" OR "spin: foam" and date=2011

You get this:
http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...n_search=Search&sf=&so=d&rm=&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (161 found)

161 records are found, presumably will increase between now and yearend. Perhaps, since about 8/12 of the year is over now, it could increase to something like 12/8 of present size. And perhaps not. Hard to guess.

Let's do that also for the years 2005 through 2010
LOOP RESEARCH BY YEAR (Inspire beta)
2005 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...n_search=Search&sf=&so=d&rm=&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (49 found)
2006 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...n_search=Search&sf=&so=d&rm=&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (105 found)
2007 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...n_search=Search&sf=&so=d&rm=&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (152 found)
2008 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...n_search=Search&sf=&so=d&rm=&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (189 found)
2009 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...n_search=Search&sf=&so=d&rm=&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (200 found)
2010 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...n_search=Search&sf=&so=d&rm=&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (201 found)
2011 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...n_search=Search&sf=&so=d&rm=&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (161 found)Today I did a spot check of the popular string book market. At noon the top five books (grand, e-elegant, elegant, hidden, e-grand) ranked 2017, 2539, 4423, 5021, 5846, for an average of 3969.

You can look back and compare. This autumn (perhaps as late as November) PBS will be coming on with a Brian Greene special (we've seen flashy visual effects previewed). This time the basis is his Fabric of the Cosmos. This will boost sales of the book.

marcus · Aug 27, 2011

I'm still learning how to use Inspire. Here is a corrected version of what I posted yesterday.

LOOP RESEARCH BY YEAR (Inspire beta)
2005 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...=&d2m=&d2y=2005&sf=&so=a&rm=&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (42 found)
2006 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...=&d2m=&d2y=2006&sf=&so=a&rm=&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (77 found)
2007 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...=&d2m=&d2y=2007&sf=&so=a&rm=&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (120 found)
2008 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...=&d2m=&d2y=2008&sf=&so=a&rm=&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (142 found)
2009 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...=&d2m=&d2y=2009&sf=&so=a&rm=&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (145 found)
2010 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...=&d2m=&d2y=2010&sf=&so=a&rm=&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (153 found)
2011 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...=&d2m=&d2y=2011&sf=&so=a&rm=&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (123 found as of 27 August)

Inspire will double count if you aren't careful with the settings--a paper has two dates the year it first appeared (say as preprint on arxiv) and the final version date (say as published in journal). What Inspire does is good but you need to consciously select which type of date to use in finding the papers of that year.I did another spot check of the popular string book market. At noon 27 August the top five books (grand, e-elegant, hidden, e-grand, elegant) ranked 1431, 2014, 2970, 4065, 4291 for an average of 2954.

marcus · Aug 30, 2011

Continuing to learn how to use the beta version of Inspire, slated to replace Spires.
Here is a search for string papers using the terms "string model", "membrane model" and "AdS/CFT correspondence"

STRING RESEARCH BY YEAR (Inspire beta)
2005 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2005&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (988 found)
2006 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2006&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (1029 found)
2007 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2007&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (1051 found)
2008 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2008&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (1127 found)
2009 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2009&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (1132 found)
2010 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2010&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (1044 found)
2011 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2011&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (675 as of 30 August, annualized = 1013)

Out of curiosity I did the corresponding thing to the 2011 count from the previous post (loop research):

2011 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...=&d2m=&d2y=2011&sf=&so=a&rm=&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (124 as of 30 August annualized 186)

marcus · Sep 2, 2011

Continued experimentation with the new Stanford/SLAC search tool, Inspire.
Here is a search for string papers using the terms "string model" and "membrane model". This time I omitted the term "AdS/CFT correspondence"

STRING&MEMBRANE RESEARCH BY YEAR (Inspire beta)
2005 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2005&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (981 found)
2006 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2006&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (1012 found)
2007 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2007&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (939 found)
2008 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2008&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (947 found)
2009 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2009&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (815 found)
2010 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2010&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (673 found)
2011 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2011&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (444 as of 2 Sept, annualized 666)

Turning to the popular book market, at noon 2 September the top five books (grand, hidden, e-elegant, elegant, e-grand) ranked 1707, 2917, 3337, 4128, 4199 for an average of 3258.
If you scroll back to post #250, you'll notice that this salesrank average is comparable to what we saw back in 2007-2008. But not yet on par with levels seen in 2009-2010 prior to the September appearance of the Hawking multiverse book.
_____

marcus · Sep 7, 2011

Update of LQG table (categories loop quantum gravity, loop quantum cosmology, spin foam)
LOOP RESEARCH BY YEAR (Inspire beta)

2005 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2005&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (42 found)
2006 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2006&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (77 found)
2007 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2007&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (120 found)
2008 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2008&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (142 found)
2009 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2009&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (145 found)
2010 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2010&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (152 found)
2011 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2011&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (129 as of 7 Sep, annualized > 180)

A simple way to estimate the annual rate is to type "1 1 2011" (1 January 2011) into this:
http://howlonguntil.net/
It will tell the number of days since beginning of year. In this case, today being 7 Sep, it says 250.
So multiply the number of papers so far by 365/250.

In this case 129*365/250 = 188

Just a rough estimate. Could be 150 or 160. But gives an idea.

marcus · Sep 14, 2011

marcus · Sep 16, 2011

Stringy topfive salesrank averages for mid-September.

13 Sept 2174
14 Sept 2232
15 Sept 2022
16 Sept 2686
17 Sept ...

At Pacific noon on 16 September the five most popular string books (grand, e-elegant, hidden, elegant, e-grand) had amazon.com salesranks 1605, 1937, 3018, 3206, 3663 for an average of 2686. I've been recording midmonth salesrank averages. For comparison, here's how they went in 2011:

Code:

Midmonth averages of string topfive salesranks
(recorded at Pacific noon on several days around the 15th of each month)

January 2011      1252
February 2011      223
March 2011         349
April 2011         649
May 2011           676
June 2011         1153
July 2011         1257
August 2011       2068

Also keeping track of several other indices, some of which are:

Number of recent string papers making the top fifty in the annual Spires HEP topcite list

Code:

year (some omitted for brev.)   2001    2003    2005    2007    2009    2010  
recent work highly cited in year  12       6       2       1       1       0

This gauges the quality/significance of current work by how much it gets cited by other researchers. Here a paper is counted as recent if it appeared in the previous five years.

Annual first-time faculty hires (US and Canada) in HEP theory as a whole, and in string, averaged over 3 year periods, with prelim. estim. for 2011

Code:

period                   1999-2001    2002-2004   2005-2007    2008-2010    2011
annual HEP theory hires    18           24          23           13          11 
annual string hires         9            8           6            2           0

Registered participants in the annual conference (some years omitted for brevity)

Code:

Strings 2003 Kyoto     396
Strings 2005 Toronto   415
Strings 2007 Madrid    440
Strings 2009 Rome      450
Strings 2010 Texas A&M 193
Strings 2011 Uppsala   265

Links to sources:
2001 http://www.slac.stanford.edu/spires/topcites/2001/annual.shtml (twelve)
2003 http://www.slac.stanford.edu/spires/topcites/2003/annual.shtml (six)
2005 http://www.slac.stanford.edu/spires/topcites/2005/annual.shtml (two)
2007 http://www.slac.stanford.edu/spires/topcites/2007/annual.shtml (one)
2009 http://www.slac.stanford.edu/spires/topcites/2009/annual.shtml (one)
2010 http://www.slac.stanford.edu/spires/topcites/2010/annual.shtml (zero)

http://www.physics.utoronto.ca/~poppitz/Jobs94-08
http://www.math.columbia.edu/~woit/wordpress/?p=3715
http://particle.physics.ucdavis.edu/rumor/doku.php

http://www-conference.slu.se/strings2011/
https://www.akademikonferens.se/list.jsf?conf=strings2011-S

marcus · Sep 18, 2011

Here's another index we've been tracking:
LOOP RESEARCH BY YEAR (loop quantum gravity, loop quantum cosmology, spin foam)

2005 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2005&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (42 found)
2006 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2006&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (77 found)
2007 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2007&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (120 found)
2008 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2008&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (142 found)
2009 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2009&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (145 found)
2010 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2010&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (152 found)
2011 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2011&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (134 as of 18 Sept, annualized > 180)

To illustrate, http://howlonguntil.net/ 260
In this case 134*365/260 = 188
The annualized rate for the first 260 days of the year has been noticeably higher than the rate in past years. I've no idea if this will persist, or how much to expect it to subside.

In the pop science market, multiverse books continue strong. The combined string topfive salesrank for 17 September was 1793 making the mid-month average for September 2181. Here's what the past year or so looks like.

Code:

Midmonth averages of string topfive salesranks
(recorded at Pacific noon on several days around the 15th of each month)

September 2010    1060 
October 2010      1344
November 2010     2220
December 2010     2705
January 2011      1252
February 2011      223
March 2011         349
April 2011         649
May 2011           676
June 2011         1153
July 2011         1257
August 2011       2068
September 2011    2181

marcus · Sep 26, 2011

marcus · Sep 29, 2011

marcus · Oct 1, 2011

142*365/273 = 190
749*365/273 = 1001

Already by 1 October there were from the LQG-SF-LQC community as many papers (142) as appeared in the whole of 2008. Something must be stimulating this increase of activity. The year is only 3/4 over.

It may be the perception that the correct smooth limit has been achieved. By this I mean the limit where one keeps the macroscopic size of the region constant and let's the discreteness parameter gamma go to zero--a bit like what happens to discrete chunks in the kitchen blender. Seeing this work out right could, I guess, motivate researchers with a sense of possibilities opening up.

There was the August paper by Magliaro Perini and the September one by Bianchi Ding.
http://arxiv.org/abs/1108.2258"
http://arxiv.org/abs/1109.6538"
Also important developments by Lewandowski's Warsaw group and by Dittrich's group at Golm.
Insiders would have had advance inkling of these results which can be seen as signposts of success for the program.

Again, at noon 1 Oct the pop-string top five (e-elegant, grand, e-grand, hidden, e-hidden) averaged a salesrank of 2536.

marcus · Oct 7, 2011

The picture is largely unchanged from 6 days ago. At noon the five most popular stringy books
(primarily about multiverse, not string/M itself) were grand, e-elegant, hidden, e-hidden, e-grand, and ranked 1746, 1922, 2097, 2840, 3962, for an average of 2513.

DESY has not gotten around to cataloging the new Loop papers so the count is still 142 as it was on 1 October. But new String/M papers have been registered so the count there has changed slightly. The annualized rates are

142*365/279 = 186
754*365/279 = 986

STRING,MEMBRANE,AdS/CFT RESEARCH BY YEAR
(search terms "string model", "membrane model" and "AdS/CFT correspondence")
2005 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2005&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (988 found)
2006 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2006&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (1029 found)
2007 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2007&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (1050 found)
2008 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2008&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (1128 found)
2009 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2009&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (1132 found)
2010 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2010&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (1046 found)
2011 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2011&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=10&sc=0&of=hb (754 as of 7 Oct, annualized = 986)

marcus · Oct 8, 2011

LOOP RESEARCH BY YEAR (loop quantum gravity, loop quantum cosmology, spin foam)
2005 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2005&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (42 found)
2006 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2006&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (77 found)
2007 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2007&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (120 found)
2008 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2008&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (142 found)
2009 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2009&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (145 found)
2010 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2010&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (152 found)
2011 http://inspirebeta.net/search?ln=en...2y=2011&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (148 as of 8 Oct, annualized > 190)

To illustrate, http://howlonguntil.net/ 280
As of 8 October the annualized rate is 148*365/280 = 193
So far this year the rate seems noticeably higher than in past years.

Just today DESY library also logged a bunch of string/M papers bringing the previous count up to 773 so the annualized rate is
773*365/280 = 1008
It would seem the tentative lesson learned is "Wait for Saturday." Then DESY numbers will be more complete (assuming this pattern persists.)

marcus · Oct 13, 2011

For the midmonth noon salesrank averages
12 October 2194
13 October 2872
14 October ...
15 October ...
16 October
17 October
18 October

For example at noon pacific on 13 Oct the top five stringy books (e-elegant, grand, e-grand, hidden, e-hidden) ranked 1236, 1512, 3173, 3758, 4679, for an average of 2872.

Code:

Midmonth averages of string topfive salesranks
(recorded at Pacific noon on several days around the 15th of each month)

September 2010    1060 
October 2010      1344
November 2010     2220
December 2010     2705
January 2011      1252
February 2011      223
March 2011         349
April 2011         649
May 2011           676
June 2011         1153
July 2011         1257
August 2011       2068
September 2011    2181

Ranks tended to be much higher in the couple of years before the appearance of the Hawking and the Greene multiverse books. Books which invoke the multiplicity of possible versions of physics inherent in string/M but which do not go much into string by way of specifics. To see the history of this index back to some sample months in 2007, go back to post #250.

Four new Loop gravity papers have appeared in the last few days, but have not yet been logged by DESY, which updates only about once a week. So the total for 2011 so far is 152 instead of 148.
Annualized: 152*365/286 = 194
Compare with the previous post #263
The annualized rate for Loop research remains somewhat higher than it has been in past years. Not clear why or whether this will persist through yearend.
FWIW: 776*365/286 = 990

marcus · Oct 14, 2011

For the midmonth noon salesrank averages
12 October 2194
13 October 2872
14 October 3163
15 October ...
16 October ...
17 October
18 October

At noon pacific on 14 Oct the top five stringy books (e-elegant, grand, e-grand, hidden, elegant) ranked 1336, 1598, 3174, 3578, 6131, for an average of 3163.

Keeping tabs on research trends:
http://inspirehep.net/search?ln=en&...2y=2011&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb

http://inspirehep.net/search?ln=en&...2y=2011&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb

http://howlonguntil.net/

marcus · Oct 16, 2011

For the midmonth noon salesrank averages
12 October 2194
13 October 2872
14 October 3163
15 October 2060
16 October 2063
17 October ...
18 October ...

At noon 16 Oct the top five stringy books were grand, e-elegant, e-grand, e-hidden,hidden, elegant. It tends almost always to be the same five, just possibly in different order.

Keeping tabs on research trends:
http://inspirehep.net/search?ln=en&...2y=2011&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb (still missing a couple that havn't been assigned keyword classifiers yet) 151, annualized 151*365/288 = 191

http://inspirehep.net/search?ln=en&...2y=2011&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb 786, annualized 786*365/288 = 996

http://howlonguntil.net/

Just as some random string Sociology, or related cultural Anthropology there was a great CERN Christmas party in 2006 that deserves to be remembered. I will get the link.
http://resonaances.blogspot.com/2007/01/cern-th-2007.html
The blogger, whose web-handle is Jester, especially liked the string "Pope" who was dressed in gaudy ecclesiastical garb and who piously intoned: "Our Witten which art in Princeton..."

"...Give us this day our daily string,
And forgive us our theory,
As we forgive those who do phenomenology.
Lead us not into experiment,
And deliver us from tests.
For thine is the arXiv,..."

marcus · Oct 18, 2011

Time to update the midmonth pop-string salesrank record.

Code:

Midmonth averages of string topfive salesranks
(recorded at Pacific noon on several days around the 15th of each month)

September 2010    1060 
October 2010      1344
November 2010     2220
December 2010     2705
January 2011      1252
February 2011      223
March 2011         349
April 2011         649
May 2011           676
June 2011         1153
July 2011         1257
August 2011       2068
September 2011    2181
October 2011      2563

marcus · Oct 30, 2011

marcus · Nov 4, 2011

A new PBS NOVA series with Brian Greene has started, this time based on "Fabric of the Cosmos". High-power computergraphic visuals + lots of wonders. Sales of string books are strongly up. The top 5 are actually all Brian Greene.

As of noon 4 November the five most popular stringy books are fabric, e-fabric, hidden, e-hidden, and e-elegant, with an average salesrank of 1135.
See post #265 for a longer-term record of the topfive average salesrank.

================
Baylor University in Texas has hired a string theorist! According to the Theoretical Particle Physics Jobs Rumor Mill 2011 saw about 13 first-time faculty hires in Usa and Canada, but until recently it appeared that none of the hires were in string. However it is now reported that Antonino Flachi has been hired to a first-time faculty position at Baylor.
http://particle.physics.ucdavis.edu/rumor/doku.php?id=archive:2011
http://particle.physics.ucdavis.edu/rumor/doku.php

Annual first-time faculty hires (US and Canada) in HEP theory as a whole, and in string, averaged over 3 year periods, with prelim. estim. for 2011

Code:

period                   1999-2001    2002-2004   2005-2007    2008-2010    2011
annual HEP theory hires    18           24          23           13          13 
annual string hires         9            8           6            2           1

The three year period 2008-2010 showed an average annual rate of 13 hires per year overall in High Energy Physics Theory. So 2011, with 13, shows no change in overall hires. The annual rate of string hires does seem to have slacked off some, but is not zero (as appeared earlier).
A more detailed tabulation by a prof in the Toronto physics departent:
http://www.physics.utoronto.ca/~poppitz/Jobs94-08
Some comment on the trends:
http://www.math.columbia.edu/~woit/wordpress/?p=3715

In case you haven't heard of Baylor and are curious, "Baylor University in Waco, Texas, is a private Baptist university, and a nationally ranked liberal arts institution."
http://www.baylor.edu/
http://www.baylor.edu/about/
The current president of Baylor University is Kenneth W. Starr, of Whitewater/Lewinsky/Prop 8 fame.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ken_Starr

======================
String and Loop research publication shows some change from last year. This year's figures now seem roughly stable:

marcus said:

keeping tabs on research trends, as of 30 october:
http://inspirehep.net/search?ln=en&...2y=2011&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb 157, annualized 157*365/302 = 190

http://inspirehep.net/search?ln=en&...2y=2011&sf=&so=a&rm=citation&rg=25&sc=0&of=hb 813, annualized 813*365/302 = 983

http://howlonguntil.net/

Annualized rates updated as of 4 November
164*365/307=195
826*365/307=982

marcus · Nov 11, 2011

Sociology of Physics: comment and indices

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