Can Terrorism Futures Markets Predict Events Accurately?

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SUMMARY

The discussion centers on the Pentagon's Policy Analysis Market (PAM) and its potential for accurately predicting future events, despite criticism from legislators like Sen. Ron Wyden. Proponents argue that PAM's cancellation deprives intelligence agencies of a valuable predictive tool. Concerns are raised about the ethical implications of allowing investors to potentially encourage terrorism for profit, especially with the involvement of foreign investors who may have ties to terrorist financing. The conversation highlights the controversial nature of idea markets and their impact on national security.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of predictive markets and their mechanisms
  • Familiarity with the concept of idea markets
  • Knowledge of the ethical implications of financial incentives in security contexts
  • Awareness of the role of intelligence agencies in national security
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  • Research the operational framework of predictive markets like PAM
  • Explore the ethical considerations surrounding financial markets and terrorism
  • Investigate the historical accuracy of predictive markets in forecasting events
  • Examine case studies of idea markets and their influence on policy decisions
USEFUL FOR

Policy analysts, intelligence professionals, ethicists, and anyone interested in the intersection of finance and national security will benefit from this discussion.

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"Legislators like Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) may have found the Pentagon's Policy Analysis Market, or PAM, "grotesque." But proponents of "idea markets" say PAM's quicksilver cancellation will rob the country's intelligence agencies of a tool with a strong history of accurately predicting future events."

http://www.wired.com/news/politics/0,1283,59818,00.html
 
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OK, but at the same time, wouldn't investors have a cause to ENCOURAGE terrorism and the like?
 
Originally posted by Zero
OK, but at the same time, wouldn't investors have a cause to ENCOURAGE terrorism and the like?

To me this idea just stinks; but there is some logic to it. Still, you make a good point. It could end up contributing to the problem.
 
Originally posted by Ivan Seeking
To me this idea just stinks; but there is some logic to it. Still, you make a good point. It could end up contributing to the problem.

Especially since(I think I read this), foreign investors will participate, possibly including the very individuals who finance terror, like George H.W. Bush's saudi business partners.
 
It didn't appear to me that the market would use real money. The examples they gave such as the Hollywood Stock Exchange do NOT use real money. Its all just an intellectual exercise.

That said, its still a pretty bizarre idea.
 

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