The Long Emergency : What do you think?

[russ_watters]

"extimating"?

 

[Chi Meson]

"extimating"?

Perhaps a conflation of "estimation" and "extermination."

If I may, Russ is acknowledging a situation as it is. Sub-saharan Africa is in a very bad position re AIDS. From any angle you check, nearly 20% of the population is carrying HIV. For more detail see the following link.

http://www.avert.org/aafrica.htm

In it it says:

HIV prevalence rates vary greatly between African countries. In Somalia and Senegal the prevalence is under 1% of the adult population, whereas in South Africa and Zambia around 15-20% of adults are infected.

In four southern African countries, the national adult HIV prevalence rate has risen higher than was thought possible and now exceeds 20%. These countries are Botswana (24.1%), Lesotho (23.2%), Swaziland (33.4%) and Zimbabwe (20.1%).

West Africa has been less affected by HIV, but the prevalence rates in some countries are creeping up. Prevalence is estimated to exceed 5% in Cameroon (5.4%), Côte d'Ivoire (7.1%) and Gabon (7.9%).

Until recently the national prevalence rate has remained relatively low in Nigeria, the most populous country in Sub-Saharan Africa. The rate has grown slowly from below 2% in 1993 to 3.9% in 2005. But some states in Nigeria are already experiencing HIV infection rates as high as those now found in Cameroon. Already around 2.9 million Nigerians are estimated to be living with HIV.

These are statistics through 2005. It's grim.

 

[kyleb]

Not a conflation, just sloping typing leaving me one key low on the keyboard. And yes, I'm aware of the gravity of the situation there, I'm just wondering approximately when Russ suspects Africa's lack of what he deems 'affluency' will take to "kill off the entire continent."

 

[russ_watters]

I'm really not sure what you are asking, kyleb - I thought I answered you with post 29.

 

[kyleb]

You answered in regard to 'some places', I'm asking in regard to the entire continent.

 

[Chi Meson]

One of the hardships expected by Mr. K is the collapse of technical research due to the loss of the cheap energy to power all of our labs. Again, I think his prediction is a bit early and sudden. I would expect a long taper from oil. But nonetheless without petrolium-powered electricity, we cannot power (all of) our huge accelerators and fusion labs. This suggests a bit of a race to find the "fusion solution" before petrolium completely dries up.

And in my days of pessimism, I do enjoy being told that I am wrong, so have at it all.

 

[russ_watters]

You answered in regard to 'some places', I'm asking in regard to the entire continent.

Different things are going to happen to different countries. Some countries, like Egypt, will probably never be so overrun with AIDS that they will collapse. Are you looking for me to write a hundred page report on how AIDS will affect Africa? Sorry, it ain't going to happen.

 

[kyleb]

No, I'm just asking you your exstimate of a date in regard to this:

Africa is going to take care of itself one way or another: either it'll become more affluent or AIDS will kill off the entire continent.