News Is Anyone Truly in Control Amidst the Ukrainian Crisis?

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The discussion highlights the chaotic situation in Ukraine, questioning who truly controls the protests and the government amidst escalating violence, particularly in Kiev. It notes the deep cultural and political divisions within Ukraine, with significant pro-Russian sentiments in the east and pro-European aspirations in the west. The conversation reflects on the lack of strong U.S. support for the protesters compared to past interventions during the Orange Revolution. Participants express skepticism about the motivations behind the protests, suggesting they may be influenced by foreign interests and local radicals. The overall sentiment is one of uncertainty regarding the future of Ukraine, with concerns about potential power struggles and external influences.
  • #901
Errors over Ukraine 'catastrophic': UK parliament report
http://news.yahoo.com/errors-over-ukraine-catastrophic-uk-parliament-report-023746893.html

London (AFP) - Britain and the European Union are guilty of "sleepwalking" into a crisis in Ukraine, a scathing report from a British parliamentary committee said on Friday.
Yep. Someone awake now?

When a Ceasefire Is Not a Ceasefire
http://news.yahoo.com/ceasefire-not-ceasefire-185327702--politics.html

Britain warns of Russian danger to Baltic states: reports
http://news.yahoo.com/britain-warns-russian-danger-baltic-states-reports-035343319.html

But - Britain, Spain oppose military aid for Ukraine
http://news.yahoo.com/london-madrid-still-opposed-military-aid-ukraine-142404407.html
Madrid (AFP) - Britain and Spain said Thursday the solution to the Ukrainian conflict had to come through dialogue and should not involve military aid to Ukrainian forces.

A dialogue with someone holding a gun to one's head? Is this the English way?
 
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  • #902
Dotini said:
My guess: The shooting war is over and Ukraine has lost. The peace agreement will be implemented as signed.

What peace agreement? Putin doesn't want peace, he wants Ukraine as a vassal state, or destroyed.
 
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  • #903
nikkkom said:
About 100 soldiers are captured, about 50-100 killed (both numbers are very approximate), the rest seem to be finishing pullout.

censor.net, one of more reliable news sources in Ukraine, collected information from battalion commanders and the tally of confirmed losses is: 163 killed, 110 captured, 29 missing. The numbers are not final, of course.
 
  • #904
nikkkom said:
What peace agreement? Putin doesn't want peace, he wants Ukraine as a vassal state, or destroyed.
A temporary pause to count and consolidate his winnings, perhaps?
 
  • #905
NY Times article contains links to useful maps.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/20/w...to-try-to-impose-ukraine-cease-fire.html?_r=1
20UKRAINE1-articleLarge.jpg

Soldiers who were evacuated from Debaltseve drank at a pizzeria in Artemivsk. Other soldiers commandeered taxis and shot up an expensive restaurant.

ARTEMIVSK, Ukraine — As violence continued to plague eastern Ukraineon Thursday, demoralized Ukrainian soldiers straggled into the town of Artemivsk, griping about incompetent leadership and recounting desperate conditions and gruesome killing as they beat a haphazard retreat from the strategic town of Debaltseve.

Gunshots rang out on the central square, as many soldiers began drinking heavily. One soldier stood, swaying, on the sidewalk mumbling to himself. Others, who had escaped from Debaltseve after weeks of shelling, were seizing taxicabs without payment. It was not clear that all of them had been given places to sleep, and one group stood silently, shivering on a street outside the Hotel Ukraine.

At Biblios, an upscale restaurant, soldiers tramped about the dining room, ordering brandy that they could not afford, then firing shots into the ceiling as the paying guests quietly fled the premises.
 
  • #906
Astronuc said:
Errors over Ukraine 'catastrophic': UK parliament report
http://news.yahoo.com/errors-over-ukraine-catastrophic-uk-parliament-report-023746893.html

Yep. Someone awake now?

When a Ceasefire Is Not a Ceasefire
http://news.yahoo.com/ceasefire-not-ceasefire-185327702--politics.html

Britain warns of Russian danger to Baltic states: reports
http://news.yahoo.com/britain-warns-russian-danger-baltic-states-reports-035343319.html

But - Britain, Spain oppose military aid for Ukraine
http://news.yahoo.com/london-madrid-still-opposed-military-aid-ukraine-142404407.htmlA dialogue with someone holding a gun to one's head? Is this the English way?
But it's OK for Russia to arm separatists or invade neighboring countries, as long as they have observe a cease-fire and engage in a dialogue. Or are the EU and US engaged in a dialogue, with each other, or are they just talking to themselves? So much for the rhetoric about supporting democracy and defending Europe.

Ukraine: Rebels still attacking despite alleged cease-fire
http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-says-rebel-attacks-continue-despite-cease-fire-074950650.html
KIEV, Ukraine (AP) — Separatist rebels fired on Ukrainian positions nearly 50 times in the past 24 hours and Russia is sending more tanks into Ukraine despite a cease-fire that was supposed to take effect five days ago, a Ukrainian military spokesman said Friday.

The report, which came a day after the Russian-backed rebels captured the key rail hub of Debaltseve, raises the question of whether weeks of high-level diplomacy aimed at producing a cease-fire and peace plan for eastern Ukraine simply allowed the rebels to redouble efforts to grab more territory.

The village of Kurakhovo, west of the rebel stronghold of Donetsk, was hit by fire from Grad rockets and the village of Berdyansk, near the key port city of Mariupol, was hit overnight by artillery and mortar fire, Lt. Col. Anatoliy Stelmakh said Friday.
 
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  • #907
Russia 'undermining' global world order: US
http://news.yahoo.com/russia-undermining-global-world-order-us-232613401.html

But it's just talk, unless backed up by action.

A commentator mentions that snipers (apparently pro-Russian) opened up on pro-European protesters about a year ago. That was a sure sign of things to come, but Europe and US more or less sat still.

Recently, a squadron of A-10s was moved toward the region. It's probably too little, too late.

The time to prevent an invasion is before the invaders cross the border.Meanwhile - Moscow protesters strike out against Ukraine and the West
http://news.yahoo.com/thousands-gather-moscow-protest-fascist-coup-kiev-125253591.html

on the other hand - Russian conscripts tell of fears of being sent to Ukraine
http://news.yahoo.com/russian-conscripts-tell-fears-being-sent-ukraine-122703194.html As ravaged Ukraine town regains peace (under occupation), fear of war remains
http://news.yahoo.com/ravaged-ukraine-town-regains-peace-213426934.html

I'm curious to know how many of the 'rebels' are actually from Debaltseva. Anyway, I imagine that the residents are Ukranian, and thus their property/land has been stolen by the 'rebels'.
 
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  • #908
_78532048_ukraine_votes_624map2.gif


Found a map of the entire country, with "rebel"-held area.

Debaltsevo area where "ceacefire"-induced fighting was raging last days is the salient in the north of red area. Since this map was drawn, "rebel"-controlled area became slightly bigger.
 
  • #909
Oligarch funded militias threaten the state of Ukraine as well as eastern rebels.
http://www.vox.com/2015/2/20/8072643/ukraine-volunteer-battalion-danger
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vox_(website)
The eastern Ukraine conflict is typically seen as a war between the Ukrainian military, on one side, and Russian-backed rebels, fighting alongside unacknowledged Russian forces, on the other. But there is another faction fighting as well, one that has gone largely overlooked: the dozens of private "volunteer" militias that share Ukraine's goal of crushing the separatists, but that aren't necessarily operating under its control. These groups have proved useful to the Ukrainian government's war effort, but they pose a serious threat to the long-term stability of Ukraine.

By many estimates, there are approximately 30 of these private armies fighting on the Ukrainian side. Their fighters are accused of serious http://www.amnesty.org/en/library/asset/EUR50/040/2014/en/bb06b5cb-dcb4-4f69-bb3e-c800987676cc/eur500402014en.html , including kidnappings, torture, and extrajudicial executions.

The longer these groups continue to operate, the greater the chances that their leaders will exploit their power for personal or political gain, and cement their own power to operate without constraint from the central government. That undermines the power of Ukraine's government, risks chaos in a part of the country that has already suffered too much, and raises the possibility that even if separatist forces are defeated, eastern Ukraine might be left as an ungoverned collection of warlord-dominated fiefdoms.
 
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  • #910
Astronuc said:
Isn't it customary to support ground troops with air power? Does Ukraine have an air force? Do they have helicopters?
It was not a case for air support (too high losses) but for counter battery fire (artillery + very precise radar to aim it in source of fire)

Just it seems that the West haven't provided Ukrainian forces with proper toys...I'm impressed by Gazprom idea of invoicing Ukrainian for the natural gas Russians allegedly sent to areas controlled by Russian mercenaries:
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e77e5db6-b85f-11e4-b6a5-00144feab7de.html
 
  • #912
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  • #913
Astronuc said:
This may deserve a separate thread about Putin, but http://news.yahoo.com/prominent-russian-opposition-figure-boris-nemtsov-shot-dead-223512822.html

So Russia is a classic dictatorship/oligarchy, complete with eliminating opposition through assassination or execution. Kind of like Iraq under Saddam, or Chile under Pinochet, . . . .

Well, it may be a result of sanctions and cheap oil that no longer polonium was used.
 
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  • #914
Astronuc said:
This may deserve a separate thread about Putin, but http://news.yahoo.com/prominent-russian-opposition-figure-boris-nemtsov-shot-dead-223512822.html

So Russia is a classic dictatorship/oligarchy, complete with eliminating opposition through assassination or execution. Kind of like Iraq under Saddam, or Chile under Pinochet, . . . .
Did you hear the story of how Aaron Burr, Jefferson's Vice-President, executed poor Alexander Hamilton in a one-sided duel?

As an occasional reader of Sun Tzu and Machiavelli, I've come to the sneaking suspicion that might makes right and the ends justify the means.
 
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  • #915
Dotini said:
Did you hear the story of how Aaron Burr, Jefferson's Vice-President, executed poor Alexander Hamilton in a one-sided duel?
Please provide a reference for this assertion. It doesn't seem consistent with other historical accounts.
For example - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burr–Hamilton_duel#The_duel

In the case of Nemtsov, he was clearly assassinated by all accounts.
 
  • #916
Regardless of the accuracy, it has no relevance. It was 200 years ago.
 
  • #917
Astronuc said:
Please provide a reference for this assertion. It doesn't seem consistent with other historical accounts.
For example - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burr–Hamilton_duel#The_duel

In the case of Nemtsov, he was clearly assassinated by all accounts.
The wiki account seems right enough. Burr, the challenger, intended to kill and did. Hamilton, who did not really want to fight, shot first but errantly. Some called it murder, though of course it wasn't. I thought the affair relevant to mention, as an example of how men in positions of leadership can put things like their manly honor above the laws of church and state.
 
  • #918
Ukraine industry seeks ties with West, but buckles in crisis
http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-industry-seeks-ties-west-buckles-crisis-072355202.html
KIEV, Ukraine (AP) — Volodymyr Kuzovkin's office is less than 50 miles from the European Union, but for him and his factory, the EU is a world away.

Despite Ukraine's desperation to integrate with Europe, a desire so strong it sparked the protests that ousted pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych last year, much of Ukrainian business remains wedded to Soviet-era practices even as it is buffeted by a very modern economic crisis.
. . . .
 
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  • #919
Euphoria fades in Crimea after a year of Russian rule
http://news.yahoo.com/euphoria-fades-crimea-russian-rule-131258304.html

. . . .
"Ordinary Russians lost out with the annexation of Crimea," said Sergei, a construction goods retailer from Kiev who moved to Simferopol last year with his wife and children after protests that turned violent in the Ukrainian capital.

"Across the whole of Russia, prices are going up, there are sanctions, the rouble has devalued," he said, closing the kitchen window to stop his neighbors overhearing.

Such discontent has not prevented the celebrations which began on Monday in Crimea, the anniversary of the referendum which showed 97 percent support for joining Russia. The days-long party will also include a concert in Moscow on Wednesday.
. . . .
 
  • #920
  • #921
Russian far-right, licensed opposition, Rodina Party) (I'd use this euphemism and not call them Neo-Nazi) is organizing a summit for other far-right parties from EU countries.
http://www.i24news.tv/en/news/inter...kraine-to-be-attended-by-far-right-eu-parties

It would sound quite funny, assuming that according to official propaganda claims Russian are supposed to fight against Nazis and not actually finance them. To more serious part is that Russians have some successes in using such movements as their political tool against the EU.
 
  • #923
Yanukovych son Victor Yanukovych jr. - drowned in Lake Baikal, when ice broke below his car. Only he died, the passangers escaped.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...an-president-viktor-yanukovych-drowns-in-lake

Now, according to Sputnik (no link, I'm not boosting in google Russian propaganda) on the burial Victor Yanukovych sr. had a heart attack.

Guess?
a) Really, really lot's of bad luck.
b) They made Putin unhappy. Or offended prophet Muhammad what outraged some usual rogue element in Chechen forces.
c) Wanted to start a new life with new identities.

I'd rank my guesses in the following way "c", "b" or "a".
 
  • #924
Analysis: US experts on Russia fear escalation over Ukraine
http://news.yahoo.com/analysis-us-experts-russia-fear-escalation-over-ukraine-072234139.html
U.S. and Western European moves to isolate Russia and damage its economy for its seizure of the Crimean peninsula and support of separatists in eastern Ukraine against the Western-backed central government have not forced President Vladimir Putin to back down.

The State Department says Russia is beefing up its troops and weapons along the Ukrainian border. Meanwhile, the U.S. has dispatched 300 American military trainers to work with the Ukraine army, and other NATO members are adding hundreds more.
A partial cease-fire? How does one partially cease/stop some action?
 
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  • #925
Astronuc said:
A partial cease-fire? How does one partially cease/stop some action?
Both sides agree to a cease-fire, but only Ukraine actually does.
 
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  • #926
Astronuc said:
Analysis: US experts on Russia fear escalation over Ukraine
http://news.yahoo.com/analysis-us-experts-russia-fear-escalation-over-ukraine-072234139.html
A partial cease-fire? How does one partially cease/stop some action?
OSW (very good Polish think-tank) concluded that after a hybrid war, there is a hybrid peace.

1) Anyway, Finland chases away some unidentified submarine using depth charges:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32498790

2) Russian military exercise sabotage efforts related to lying sea cable between Lithuania and Sweden, official complains of Sweden and Lithuania:
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b633b3ea-f0b9-11e4-ace4-00144feab7de.html#axzz3Z3yD5neR

Are Russians working really hard to make Finland and Sweden drop their neutrality? And later claim with outrage that NATO is encroaching Russia even more?3) Putin's nationalistic biker gang barred from entering EU (so far: Poland, Lithuania, Finland) countries:
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/pro-vladimir-putin-night-wolves-biker-gang-barred-entry-lithuania-1499011
Russia officially furious, because it was supposed to commemorate WW2 battles, lay wreaths, so on.

4) Unfortunately, Russian currency reserves started to stabilize:
http://www.cbr.ru/Eng/hd_base/?PrtId=mrrf_7d

5) WW2 Commemoration:
5.1) Did Germans surrendered in WW2 on 8th May or 9th May? Polish parliament officially canceled the 9th May date, in spite of Russian protest.
5.2) In Poland we giggle, that Russian 9th May parade is going to be even less prestigious that thought so. So far there was a problem that it would be boycotted by whole West, but now there is even a more serious blow - Kim Jong Un will not come!
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/...ill-not-attend-victory-day-parade/520082.html
5.3) Anyway, Poland organizes commemoration of 70th anniversary of end of WW2 in Gdańsk (not bad choice, it was place where WW2 started)
http://www.thenews.pl/1/9/Artykul/204611,CEE-presidents-confirmed-for-Polands-VE-Day-tribute
 
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  • #928
  • #929
Czcibor said:
Just idea of taking a foreigner is a bit unusual.

Foreigner is less likely to have "interests" and "friends" making it harder to fight corruption.

Saakashvili probably has the best track record of doing that.

The worry is that regional governors don't have that much power. They can't fire or appoint most of government employees.
 
  • #932
"United Nations: The Netherlands, Malaysia and three other countries want a UN tribunal to be set up to try those responsible for the downing of the Malaysia Airlines flight over Ukraine last year, a senior diplomat said Wednesday.

Malaysia is expected to present a draft resolution to the Security Council next month on setting up the tribunal, said the diplomat, who asked not to be named."
http://zeenews.india.com/news/world...or-un-tribunal-for-mh17-culprits_1619485.html

Sure, Russian can veto it... Just such veto would look even more like admission of guilt.
 
  • #934
Czcibor said:
"United Nations: The Netherlands, Malaysia and three other countries want a UN tribunal to be set up to try those responsible for the downing of the Malaysia Airlines flight over Ukraine last year, a senior diplomat said Wednesday.

Malaysia is expected to present a draft resolution to the Security Council next month on setting up the tribunal, said the diplomat, who asked not to be named."
http://zeenews.india.com/news/world...or-un-tribunal-for-mh17-culprits_1619485.html

Sure, Russian can veto it... Just such veto would look even more like admission of guilt.

Nevermind the investigation. The truth is what we say it is. Might makes right. Our means are justified by our ends. :rolleyes:
 
  • #935
  • #936
Sweden found a tiny Russian submarine. Officially Swedes are worried: "The submarine is completely intact, has no visible damage to the hull and the hatches are closed. Therefore we do fear that the crew has not been able to save themselves when the sub went down".
 
  • #938
Russia on Wednesday vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution that would set up an international criminal court to prosecute those responsible for shooting down a Malaysia Airlines plane over Ukraine a year ago.

[...]

Three countries abstained from the vote: China, Angola and Venezuela, whose ambassador said victims' suffering shouldn't be used politically.
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/russian-veto-expected-security-council-votes-mh17-32748771As I've seen on one Polish forum:
Since when a criminal decides whether to be judged or not?
Since he has nukes
 
  • #940
Czcibor said:
5.1) Did Germans surrendered in WW2 on 8th May or 9th May?

The West said the surrender was one minute before midnight, USSR said one minute after.
 
  • #941
Hornbein said:
The West said the surrender was one minute before midnight, USSR said one minute after.

More complicated. Because Russians intended to use caught Germans as slaves, Germans tried to surrender to West, while military delay Soviet advances. The result was that first surrender to the West was signed on the 7th, while effective on 8th. Soviets demand for PR reasons also a surrender to them, thus they insisted on 9th.

Of course, when now history is being weaponized such minor date difference matters.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Instrument_of_Surrender
 
  • #942
There was already year ago a poll showing that first time in history (or from at least many years) there is a slight majority in Sweden for joining NATO:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/29/us-sweden-nato-idUSKBN0II1XN20141029

Recent polls show that it was not a fluke:
http://www.thelocal.se/20150914/poll-more-swedes-now-for-nato-than-against

So far split society. It would be a quite good job of Putin if he manage annoy Swedes enough to make them officially drop their sacred, semi-neutrality.
 
  • #943
Annoyance? You think that is the best description of Swedish sentiment regards Putin's Russia?
 
  • #944
  • #945
A small correction, the guy who was kidnapped is the local equivalent (it's a small country) of an FBI/CIA officer, not a border guard.

Yes, its quite an application of force by Russia towards a NATO country. If your guy gets caught doing illegal spying, you kidnap their guy from their country (by literally crossing the border and kidnapping someone) and then do an exchange.
 

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