US Economy Facing 'Death by a Thousand Cuts': Roubini

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Discussion Overview

The discussion centers around the predictions made by economist Nouriel Roubini regarding the US economy, particularly the potential for a double-dip recession and the implications of the commercial real estate market collapse. Participants explore the effects on consumer behavior, the banking sector, and the bond market, with a focus on economic theory and predictions.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Technical explanation
  • Conceptual clarification

Main Points Raised

  • Roubini predicts a "double-dip" recession and a slow-growth U-shaped recovery, citing a decline in consumer spending and issues in the commercial real estate market.
  • Some participants note that double-dip recessions are common and suggest that Roubini's prediction is reasonable given the secondary effects of the first dip.
  • Concerns are raised about the confidence in non-government bonds following the treatment of bondholders during the government intervention in the auto industry.
  • There is speculation that the economy may already be experiencing the second dip of a recession.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a mix of agreement and skepticism regarding Roubini's predictions. While some find his outlook plausible, others question the confidence in non-government bonds and the current state of the economy, indicating that multiple competing views remain.

Contextual Notes

Participants do not fully resolve the implications of Roubini's predictions, and there are unresolved questions about the impact of government actions on bondholder confidence and the actual state of the economy.

Wax
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By: CNBC.com said:
The US economy faces a difficult time ahead as consumers stop spending and the fallout escalates from the collapse of the commercial real estate market, economist Nouriel Roubini told CNBC.

Repeating his prediction that the economy faces a threat of a "double-dip" recession and at best a slow-growth U-shaped recovery, Roubini said in a live interview that more banks will fail and residential real estate prices have more room to decline.

Additionally, non-government bonds will face pressure, the securitization market is all but dead, the credit markets are still frozen and consumers will continue to save more rather than spend and boost growth.

"It's going to be death by a thousand cuts," said Roubini, chairman of RGE Monitor and economics professor at New York University's Stern School of Business. "The financial system is severely damaged, and it's not just the banks."

more: http://www.cnbc.com/id/32837255

:bugeye:
 
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Double-dip recessions are pretty common and there a bunch of secondary effects of the first dip (many he listed), so that is a pretty safe prediction.
 
Wax said:

Who is going to have confidence in non-Government bonds after the way bond holders were treated in the recent Government take-over of the auto industry?
 
russ_watters said:
Double-dip recessions are pretty common and there a bunch of secondary effects of the first dip (many he listed), so that is a pretty safe prediction.
Then again, maybe we are already in the second dip...
 

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