I am not sure the this is right. but here is what I thought.
The point is what's difference between the Raman and Rayleigh scattering. For Raman scattering, the atom or molecule goes from the state [itex]|a\rangle[/itex] to a virtual level [itex]|b\rangle[/itex] while absorbing a photon, and then goes to level [itex]|c\rangle[/itex], which is a totally different level of [itex]|a\rangle[/itex], and emit anther photon. The frequencies of the absorbed and emitted photon is changed by [itex](E_c-E_a)/\hbar[/itex]. So this is an inelastic scattering.
For Rayleigh scattering, that atom goes form [itex]|a\rangle[/itex] to the level [itex]|b\rangle[/itex], which is still a virtual level and end in level [itex]|a\rangle[/itex], that's the exact level which the atoms used be on. The frequencies of the absorbed and emitted photon are the same. So this is an elastic scattering.
We have two ways to understand why the Raman Scattering is weak. First, Just look at the change of the atoms. For the Raman scattering, the atoms end up on the higher level. Well, the atoms don't like to be on a higher Energy levels, right? This is why Raman is weak. Here we assumed that [itex]E_a < E_c[/itex], and this is the Stokes Raman scattering. For anti-Stokes Raman scattering, [itex]E_a > E_c[/itex], there are not much populations on the level [itex]E_a[/itex], So it should be weak.
The second way is similar to the first one. we know that [itex]\langle a|c\rangle = 0[/itex]. This means the wave-functions of this two states are not overlapped. Let the scattering operation to be [itex]U[/itex], so [itex]U[/itex] can change the state to [itex]U|a\rangle[/itex], if the atom is coming to [itex]|c \rangle[/itex], that is Raman scatter. The probability amplitude should be [itex]\langle c|U|a \rangle[/itex]. Well, For Rayleigh, it will be [itex]\langle a|U|a \rangle[/itex]. So, which one is larger, it must be [itex]\langle a|U|a \rangle[/itex], because [itex]U[/itex] will not be so weird that change the atomic state so dramatically, and [itex]\langle a|a\rangle = 1[/itex].