European Winters Could Disappear by 2080

[Ivan Seeking]

AMSTERDAM, Netherlands (Reuters) - Europe is warming up more quickly than the rest of the world, and cold winters could disappear almost entirely by 2080 as a result of global warming, researchers predicted Wednesday.[continued]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=570&ncid=570&e=1&u=/nm/20040818/sc_nm/environment_europe_warming_dc_2

[Andre]

Well yes looking at the 1990-1998 period yes Europe has warmed considerably. After that there was stabilisation.

Incidentely Europe also is the main proof against Mann's (corrected) hockeystick.

http://www.brighton73.freeserve.co.uk/gw/paleo/1000yearssmall.jpg

As there are some very long recorded real temperatures, which of course were not used to create the hockeystick.

http://members.lycos.nl/errenwijlens/co2/errenrecon.gif

On the long run we are just on top of one of several spikes. In ten years the alarmists will announce the ice age.

[Andre]

A better graph (http://hanserren.cwhoutwijk.nl/co2/ceurvsjghcnupd.gif) even.

[Thallium]

I will not disagree. The summertime tepmerature in Norway has been up to 35 degrees the last three or four years! Usually it is around 17-25. That is alarming!

[Andre]

Okay perhaps try this link (http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp/station_data/) and click on Norway on the world map to look at station data. Try to disregard urban stations. Those tend to give a false "Urban Heat Isand" Effect You will find that Gardemoen (http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp/TMPDIR/tmp.634013840003.1.1/634013840003.1.1.txt) has indeed higher summer averages but not especially weird. Note that the summer of Orland Lii (http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp/TMPDIR/tmp.634012410003.1.1/634012410003.1.1.txt) was less warm than 1953-1955 and the last couple of years. Really nothing specific going on.

[Marijn]

4 years is hardly a period you would bases a trend prediction on.
The effect we'll notice the most is the increase in downpour.
I'd say the increase in floodproblems is more severe than a bit higher temperatures.
A summer like last year is an incident, not the way it is going to be from now on.
Appart from the possible increase in flood problems, i'm not that worried yet.

[Andre]

Flood problems?

Thinking about sea level rising. There is lot of commotion about it. There is some proof that sea level rise is not nearly as the alarmists think:

http://www.john-daly.com/deadisle/
http://flatrock.org.nz/topics/environment/poseidon_adventure.htm

Flooding is more related with storms and here are some observations about storm frequencies worldwide:

http://www.gvc.gu.se/biblio/b-serin/absB224.htm

The number of storms per month has varied significantly between different years during the studied period. At the beginning of the century the frequency was relatively high, after which the values dropped in the 1930s and 40s. In the middle of the 50s the frequency of storms rose and reached very high values during the late 60s through to the 80s. Around 1994 however, the number of storms has again dropped severely.

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2004/2003GL018351.shtml

Meteorological dust storm frequency data from 37 stations of 40 years (1961–2000) throughout the Midwest Inner Mongolia of China are analyzed together with climatic factors of 40 years in this region. Dust storm frequency in this region has taken on a decline trend during the period of 1961–2000. The main climatic factors controlling dust storm frequency in this region are number of days with gale, intensity index of Asian polar vortex, and area index of the northern hemispheric polar vortex which are good representatives for large-scale cold air activities. The explanation for the decreasing trend is that it is mainly due to the variation in climatic factors determining dust storm frequency in Inner Mongolia of China.

http://files.raycommedia.com/wtoc/tropical/history.htm

While only three hurricanes hit the Georgia and the extreme southern South Carolina coast in the 1900's, thirteen such storms produced havoc for the developing coast during the 1800's. And unlike the weaker storms of the 1900's, in many cases, these storms were much more fierce!


Orlando statistics (http://www.cfhf.net/orlando/hurricane.htm):
PERIODS WHEN A STORM HIT EVERY YEAR

1871 – 1873 5 storms
1891 – 1894 4 storms
1896 – 1899 5 storms
1968 – 1969 4 storms (3 in 1968)
1891 – 1899 9 storms with gap in 1895


PERIODS OF YEARS WITHOUT STORMS

1862 – 1870 9 years
1916 – 1920 5 years
1951 – 1959 9 years
1989 – 1994 6 years


PERIODS OF YEARS WITHOUT HURRICANES

1852 – 1870 19 years
1900 – 1920 21 years
1934 – 1943 10 years
1980 – 1998 19 years


All are proving clearly that "Global warming" is causing less storms. :biggrin: :rofl: So you're right not to worry

[Marijn]

Like i said, only a predicted increase in rain (forgive me for not having an article with it, i'm at work. They would look a bit odd at me if i was spending an hour to find the article i mean).

Since were at the end of quite some rivers, an increase in rain upstream could present some nuisance. (but then again, who's going to live on a river wash-land :confused:)

Ahh what do i care, i'm living high and dry :approve: (at least for now :grumpy: ).

[Ivan Seeking]

For starters
The number of storms per month has varied significantly between different years during the studied period. At the beginning of the century the frequency was relatively high, after which the values dropped in the 1930s and 40s. In the middle of the 50s the frequency of storms rose and reached very high values during the late 60s through to the 80s. Around 1994 however, the number of storms has again dropped severely.

This ignores the purpose of the paper which is to study another phenomenon all together.

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the variation in the negative correlation between the high pressure over the Azores and the Icelandic low. A phenomena that according to examinations effects the climate in Sweden and in the whole of Europe. If the difference in pressure is significantly high it will mean stronger westerlies and higher temperatures in northwestern Europe during winter. Smaller differences gives the opposite conditions.

http://www.gvc.gu.se/biblio/b-serin/absB224.htm

So have you factored in the effects of the NAO with global warming or are you ignoring the effects of this cycle completely in your comments?

[Andre]

Well, you did not recognise the tongue in cheek. There are some comprehensive studies about the cyclic nature of storms. Can't find them back right now. The point is that global warming can be blamed for anything you want. It's getting drier, global warming! It's getting wetter, global warming! The Arctic ice pack is melting, global warming etc.

Incidentely, about that last one, the alleged warming of the Arctic it's related anyway, I just finished an afternoon of hard excel work with as result. (http://home.wanadoo.nl/bijkerk/Arctic.jpg)

I think I found all the still operational weather stations situated at over 70 degrees North as given in that earlier link. I devided the Arctic area in the four main lattitude sectors to determine the average for each sector.

Sector 180W-90W: 2 stations: Barrow west end and Resolute
Sector 90W - 0: 4 stations: Jan Mayen, Eureka, Clyde NWT, Danmarkhavn
Sector 0 - 90E: 4 stations: Svalbard, Ostrov Dikson, Ostrov Vize, Bjornoya
Sector 90E-180E: 4 stations: GMO Im, (K)Hantanga, Cokurdah, Ostrov Kotel

The average of each sector is avered again in the total series and also a 20 year smoothend average has been added.

The trendline indicates that the total Arctic air temperature has warmed a staggering 0,15 degrees the last century. Not even the forcing value according to the Stefan Boltzman law

Notice that the nineteen forties were at least as "warm" as it is today. Now there may be much more correlation between the Arctic Oscilation and the temperature trend of the Arctic than with more carbon in the air.