neden
Oct16-10, 04:16 AM
Hi,
This is the question:
Players are awarded $1000 dollars in a contest. Each player draws a ticket from a bowl of 100 raffle-tickets. Once a winning ticket is drawn the draw is over. For every ticket drawn it is with replacement. What is the probability one of the first 25 customers is the winner?
My thinking
-----------
I don't really have too much confidence in my understanding of probability but from what I can see this is how it looks like:
1) We know that we only need one person to win.
2) Secondly, there's some sort of combination of winners that can arise from the first 25 customers (although I am not exactly sure how the combination looks)
I have two ways of approaching this:
1) Solving it according to my own logic and thinking.
-------------------------------------------------
25*(1/100)(99/100)*<10 choose 1>
25 because 25 customers,
1/100 is the chance of getting the ticket
99/100 is the chance of failure
<10 choose 1> because you can have a combination
2) It is a simple plug in and solve question
----------------------------------------
Thus I deduced that using the Binomial Distribution formula would solve the answer.
P(event) = <n (choose) k> (success)^k * (failure)^(n-k)
where n is 100, k = 1, success= 1/100, failure = 1 - success.
(... something tells me this is completely not the right answer since, I never even accounted for the 10 customers anywhere .... confused!!)
Nevertheless, is this question as simply plugging in and finding the answer or no? (and to be honest, I don't completely understand how the logic behind binomial distribution formula works).
This is the question:
Players are awarded $1000 dollars in a contest. Each player draws a ticket from a bowl of 100 raffle-tickets. Once a winning ticket is drawn the draw is over. For every ticket drawn it is with replacement. What is the probability one of the first 25 customers is the winner?
My thinking
-----------
I don't really have too much confidence in my understanding of probability but from what I can see this is how it looks like:
1) We know that we only need one person to win.
2) Secondly, there's some sort of combination of winners that can arise from the first 25 customers (although I am not exactly sure how the combination looks)
I have two ways of approaching this:
1) Solving it according to my own logic and thinking.
-------------------------------------------------
25*(1/100)(99/100)*<10 choose 1>
25 because 25 customers,
1/100 is the chance of getting the ticket
99/100 is the chance of failure
<10 choose 1> because you can have a combination
2) It is a simple plug in and solve question
----------------------------------------
Thus I deduced that using the Binomial Distribution formula would solve the answer.
P(event) = <n (choose) k> (success)^k * (failure)^(n-k)
where n is 100, k = 1, success= 1/100, failure = 1 - success.
(... something tells me this is completely not the right answer since, I never even accounted for the 10 customers anywhere .... confused!!)
Nevertheless, is this question as simply plugging in and finding the answer or no? (and to be honest, I don't completely understand how the logic behind binomial distribution formula works).