Solving Analysts' Inflation Prediction Problems

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SUMMARY

This discussion addresses statistical problems related to inflation predictions and sample variances. Analysts are tasked with calculating probabilities concerning sample standard deviations based on a normal distribution with a known standard deviation of 1.8%. Additionally, the discussion includes a scenario involving a medicine company's pill weight variance, where the sample variance of 2.05 is evaluated against a population variance of 1.5. The conversation also covers monthly stock return rates, requiring probability calculations for sample standard deviations of 2.5 and 1.0.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of normal distribution and its properties
  • Knowledge of sample standard deviation and variance calculations
  • Familiarity with probability concepts and hypothesis testing
  • Experience with statistical software or tools for calculations (e.g., R, Python)
NEXT STEPS
  • Study the Central Limit Theorem and its implications for sample distributions
  • Learn how to perform hypothesis testing for variances using Chi-Squared tests
  • Explore the use of statistical software (e.g., R or Python) for calculating probabilities
  • Investigate confidence intervals for sample variances and their applications
USEFUL FOR

Statisticians, data analysts, economists, and anyone involved in predictive modeling or variance analysis in financial and pharmaceutical contexts.

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the following problems i have trouble solving, please help: :smile:

each member of a random sample of 15 analysts was asked to predict the rate of inflation for the coming year. assume that the predictions for the whole population of analysts follow a normal distribution with the standard deviation 1.8%.

a) the probability is .01 that the sample standard deviation is bigger than what number?

b) the probability is .025 that the sample standard deviation is smaller than what number?

c) find any pair of numbers such that the probbility that the sample standard deviation lies between these numbers is .90.


a medicine company produces pills containing an active ingredient. the company is concerned about the mean weight of this ingredient per pill, but it also requires that the variance be no more than 1.5. a random sample of 20 pills is selected, and the sample variance is found to be 2.05. how likely is it that a sample variance this high or higher would be found if the population variance is in fact 1.5? assume that the population distribution is normal.
:confused:

thanks.
 
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i can use another help with this problem, driving me nuts all day long:

montly rates of return on the share of a stock are independent of one another and normally distributed with a standard deviation of 1.7. a sample of 12 months is taken.

a) find the probability that the sample standard deviation is less than 2.5.

b) find the probability that the sample standard deviation is bigger than 1.0.

thanks
 

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