Probability of journey times


by bradyj7
Tags: journey, probability, times
bradyj7
bradyj7 is offline
#1
Nov16-12, 06:09 AM
P: 122
Hello,

If you assume that the average speed of car will be 30km/hr when making a journey.

A journey distance is 10 km.

You therefore expect the journey to take 20 minutes.

How would you determine how much more likely the journey will take 20 minutes than not to take 20 minutes.

Is it 2, 3, 10 times more likely to take 20 minutes than some other time such as 5 minutes or 35 minutes.

Thanks
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HallsofIvy
HallsofIvy is offline
#2
Nov16-12, 08:12 AM
Math
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Thanks
PF Gold
P: 38,894
You say the "average speed" is 30 km/hr but that alone is not enough information. You need something additional, at minimum the "standard deviation" so that you can at least approximate the probability distribution by a normal distribution.
bradyj7
bradyj7 is offline
#3
Nov16-12, 09:58 AM
P: 122
okay, thanks.

Say for example the SD is 5.

How would you determine how much more likely the journey will take 20 minutes than not to take 20 minutes with this extra information included?

Thanks for the help


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