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I REALLY need help with this probability equation! 
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#1
Nov2212, 09:49 AM

P: 1

Okay, so... I'm not sure this is even the proper place to post this, but I do know this is the proper place to possibly find the answer to this, being that I'm sure there are people who are MUCH BETTER at math than I am....
So, I play this game, and I've pretty much got everything down, but it's a very very VERY "CHANCE" heavy game.... like, you know, upgrading your equipment starts at 10%, and you can get it boosted up to 50% total, that stuff is easy for me, but then there are OTHER THINGS that have began to confuse me, and I want to know the total number of combinations POSSIBLE for any one item, and then I need someone to figure out the chance of me getting the one combination I'm looking for on a 5 line piece of equipment.... This is basically how it works... Eye accessory LUK% 1 DEX% 2 INT% 3 STR% 4 ALL STATS% 5 Accuracy 6 Avoidability 7 W.DEF (% or number) 8+9 M.DEF (% or number) 10+11 Max HP/MP 12+13 There isn't just 13 values above, there are 26 because I can either get a unique line, or legendary line, and I can only get 5 of these lines, which means I could get luk% dex% str% int% and all stats%, but any of those lines could either be unique lines or legendary lines. (Note, unique is 9%, legendary is 12%) So it may look like THIS: luk 12% or 9% dex 9% or 12% str 9% or 12% int 12% or 9% all stats 9% or 12% Now here's where the math actually comes in, and this is the part I don't understand... I need to know the probability of getting 3 lines of int 12% on a five line piece of equipment... SO I want my equipment to look like this(Sort of) int 12% int 12% int 12% anything! anything! I know there are 26 values, and I need to go down the line multiplying by the next number like 26*25*24*23 (etc. etc. etc...) BUT I don't know how to figure out the PROBABILITY of getting the 3 lines I WANT. Could someone please help a girl out? PLEASE?!?!? :< ALSO It would be GREATLY appreciated if you gave me the equations you used to determine the out comes as well, if you wouldn't mind! 


#2
Nov2212, 12:48 PM

Mentor
P: 11,890

As a good approximation, you can neglect items with 4 or more 12%int. In that case, you can calculate the probability of (12%int, 12%int, 12%int, something else, something else) in that order  just multiply the individual probabilities. And then you have to multiply the result with 15, as there are 15 possible positions for those 3 12%intstats.
In a similar way, you get items with 4 times 12%int by calculating the probability of (12%int, 12%int, 12%int, 12%int, something else) and a factor of 5 (5 options where "something else" can appear), and items with 5 times 12%int (no additional factor here). Add them, and you are done. You might consider 4 times 9%int as well, as it could be similar to 3 times 12%int. 


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