The Medieval Warming Period


by Andre
Tags: medieval, period, warming
Andre
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#1
Feb8-06, 07:16 AM
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I’m a bit upset. I think we stumbled upon very strong hints / signs of conspiracy in the Global Warming arena. Scary.

Up until now, I’ve always disdained hints of conspiracy. After all, the economic law of offer and requirement of fear seemed to be working pretty well. The public wanting fear and prepared to pay taxes for the government to fund science that could produce fear, amplified by some sensationalism of the press. But not conspiracy, not even with the allegations of David Deming:

"With the publication of the article in Science, I gained significant credibility in the community of scientists working on climate change. They thought I was one of them, someone who would pervert science in the service of social and political causes. So one of them let his guard down. A major person working in the area of climate change and global warming sent me an astonishing email that said "We have to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period."
Such could easily be the desire of an individual with some exaggerations from both sides, but it has all the looks that “We have to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period” could have been a conspiracy indeed. The evidence is out there, for everybody to find.
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Andre
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Feb8-06, 09:04 AM
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So what else has David Deming to say:

Personally, I had doubts about the Mann et al. (1999) claims from the beginning. Only a few years earlier, the existence of a world-wide MWP had been documented by an important paleoclimate study, Huang et al.'s (1997) analysis of borehole temperature data. As Lachenbruch and Marshall (1986, p. 696) pointed out many years ago, borehole temperatures are the most robust paleoclimate indicator we have because they are not a proxy, but a direct thermophysical record of temperature changes occurring at the surface.

The Huang et al. (1997) study was originally submitted to Nature. I was one of the reviewers of the manuscript. I told the Nature editors that the article would surely be one of the most important papers they published that year. But it never appeared in print. Nature asked the authors to revise the paper twice and then, after a long delay, ended up rejecting it. While writing this essay, I learned that McIntyre and McKitrick's manuscript had received similar treatment at Nature. Apparently, it is not enough for the editors at Nature to simply reject an article that is politically incorrect, they have to delay its inevitable publication in another journal by tying it up in the review process for several months.

Not only does the analysis by Huang et al. (1997) show a well-developed MWP, it also reveals that mean surface global temperature over most of the last 10,000 years was significantly warmer than the late 20th-century value. But this paper received virtually no attention in the press. After all, it wasn't "what people are interested in."
So if we try and find that crucial Huang et al 1997 paper we end up on his publications page.

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~shaopeng/publicat.html

Indeed there it is:

Huang, S., Pollack, H. N., and Shen, P.Y., 1997. Late Quaternary temperature change seen in world-wide continental heat flow measurements. Geophys. Res. Lett., 24: 1947-1950.

but no link to a PDF. There is a link to a simular study in 1998 though. Let's see what that is about:

Noise in the system is principally of two types: (i) errors in the measurement of temperatures, depths, and thermophysical properties and (ii) errors that arise from departures of the mathematical representation of the system from conditions existing in the real world. Most analyses of borehole climatic perturbations assume that heat is transferred solely through one-dimensional heat conduction. Deviations from this idealization (for example, moving fluids with an associated advective component of heat transfer, lateral heterogeneity in thermal conductivity, and topography and nonuniform vegetation along the surface) are manifest as noise in the analysis (4).

In attempting to extract a signal in the presence of noise, one has a number of tools with which to work. Within the process of inversion, there exist various smoothing constraints that can be used to suppress the amplification of noise, but they also mute the signal that is recovered. Smoothing can also be accomplished by the nature of the parameterization of the signal and, in a Bayesian inversion, by the nature of the a priori model. The combination of the predominant depth range of observations and the characteristic magnitude of noise has led us to choose five centuries as the practical interval over which to develop climate reconstructions"
Andre
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#3
Feb8-06, 10:09 AM
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Now suppose that you had authored:

Huang, S., Pollack, H. N., and Shen, P.Y., 1997. Late Quaternary temperature change seen in world-wide continental heat flow measurements. Geophys. Res. Lett., 24: 1947-1950.

and being proud with the result: 18,000 years of borehole temperatures worldwide:

graph here

and there is that clear little spike that Deming is talking about, the Medieval Warm Period, how on Earth could you try and sell only a mere year later that it's no good to try and reconstruct beyond 500 years due to all kind of difficulties. Hey, that's error bars are for and statistic correlation techniques. Have you seen the noise that the multiproxy reconstructors are working with and think that they see a temperature signal in?

Would you have given up 17,500 years of data just like that? Why not 10,000 years or 5,000 years; why keep only 500 years? I would certainly go for no less than 1000 years if it was only to mutually test each others hypotheses (MBH99 was in the making).

But the worst: the Pollack Huang 1998 study is not even referring to their own 1997 paper.

quantumcarl
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Feb14-06, 09:39 PM
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The Medieval Warming Period


What's more is that the sea level has been rising since 19,000 years ago, that's around 8,000 years before the "ice age" began to "recede". Since 19,000 years ago it has risen 60 meters. This indicates a steady increase in temperature, melting locked up H2O at the poles.

I believe it when Deming says the "mean surface global temperature over most of the last 10,000 years was significantly warmer than the late 20th-century value". And melting polar ice caps have contributed to (60 meters over 20,000 yrs) rising sea levels.

This info coupled with glacial borehole analysis definitely points to an average 80,000 year cycle that culminates in an "ice age" at either side of the cycle with a significant warming inbetween. Nothing to do with car exhaust and refineries... not that changing that system won't do wonders.

Zo. What's the advantage of hyping Global Warming? Tonnes of tax money dumped into bogus programs that are actually fronts financing the engineering of invasive nazi Foofighters??? No doubt!

Or is it a clever ploy to get the west on to alternative energy sources as soon as possible, before absolute chaos and defeat occur because of an undisclosed oil shortage becoming all too apparent?
Mk
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Feb16-06, 02:20 AM
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I thought I had posted in response.

Zo. What's the advantage of hyping Global Warming?
http://www.physicsforums.com/showpos...5&postcount=40

I forgot what else I said, but there are many different takes on why global warming persists, and its advantages.

The physicists like it because it may provide extra funding for nuclear fusion. It is very costly to develop, but it provides somewhat clean, endless supply of vast energy.
Andre
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#6
Feb16-06, 03:07 PM
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The reason for propagating - let's say enforcing global warming has been analysed here:

http://www.john-daly.com/history.htm

Notice especially figs 1 and 2 to understand how the positive feedback works. But why alarmism is attractive in general is best explained by Tony Blair:

Over the coming months we will take forward the wider sustainable development and environment agenda. ....

Let me turn now to the evidence itself. The scientific evidence of global warming and climate change: UK leadership in environmental science
....

UK excellence in science is well documented: we are second only to the US in our share of the world's most cited publications....

I said earlier it needed global leadership to tackle the issue. But we cannot aspire to such leadership unless we are seen to be following our own advice.

So, what is the UK Government doing? We have led the world in setting a bold plan and targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Tackling climate change will take leadership, dynamism and commitment - qualities that I know are abundantly represented in this room.

- Ceres Power based in Crawley and utilising technology developed at Imperial College have developed a new fuel cell that has unique properties and is a world leader, ...

But Government can give a lead in its own procurement policy...

And the UK is taking a strong lead globally..

5 To acquire global leadership, on this issue Britain must demonstrate it first at home.
Any idea what he is up to? Perhaps the fable of the fairies in the palace garden could illustrate that further.


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