Recent content by Jimmy87

Could someone kindly provide an estimate of the level of this question? I am interested to know.

“They don’t miss. Gravity alone turns this into a collision, and the product is a black hole. First, the scale: a 145 g baseball at γ = 10⁵⁴ carries kinetic energy γmc² ≈ 1.3×10⁷⁰ J — the mass-equivalent of ~1.5×10⁵³ kg, roughly the rest energy of all ordinary matter in the observable universe...

This is the response from Fable 5: "Good news: for a conventional (Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac) loan, this is one of the acceptable ways to borrow a down payment. An SBLOC draw falls under "borrowed funds secured by an asset" (Fannie Mae Selling Guide B3-4.3-15), which are explicitly an acceptable...

Yes, I've seen this. There's a recent interview on YouTube with their lead author Daniel Kokotajilo you may find interesting where he discusses all the forecasts he and his team have made (which include both AI 2027 and 2040): Diary of CEO is very clickbait-esque which is a bit cringe but he...

I don't think it's about being right or wrong on exact timelines. Irving (along with all other alignment scientists) always stress uncertainty. What's important is the trajectory based on empirical data. All of this currently points towards AGI and ASI within 5 years. It could hit a ceiling and...

I have Fable 5 but they are removing this tomorrow. Can you post several inputs all the free versions struggled with so I can run it through Fable 5? I would be interested to see the comparison to the free versions. I can then post the outputs on here.

Out of interest, how would people rank the difficulty of this physics exemplar from Humanities Last Exam:

Would you not say more like they considerably outperform humans in terms of the latest models? AISI published a report showing they are about 1.5 times the phd baseline in the sciences and maths. They also ace the maths olympiad. Models are scoring 60% in Humanities Last Exam which is supposedly...

Most of the world's top AI alignment scientists. Most of them are serious and devoid of hype but I would pick Geoffrey Irving as the most credible since he is not an AI alignment scientist for a frontier lab. He is a civil servant for the UK government. He works for the UK government's AI...

Do you not think there is a fairly large consensus among the top experts in the field that AGI/ASI will likely arrive within the next few years? I agree the bubble will burst at some point but I can’t see the pursuit of AGI/ASI stopping.

Thanks for this - it was very interesting and I thoroughly enjoyed it. I’ve never thought about this idea before. I also did some further reading and found that it ties into the Great Filter concept. I calculated roughly that human intelligence has existed for just 0.005% of Earth’s habitable...

Here is a screenshot taken from the website listed below: https://www.icc.dur.ac.uk/~tt/Lectures/Galaxies/LocalGroup/Back/bigbang.html If you go to the web page and watch the animation - do you think it is a reasonable analogy of the Big Bang and how it unfolded?

So since the Big Bang in the singularity sense marks the boundary of our current theories then it is only accurate to say our observable universe started with some very small finite size which was hot and dense? Is it better to use the start of inflation as the origin of the observable universe...

Ha ha, good point. By the end of the century for certain I reckon but in silicon form……..

You said we don’t know the characteristics at t = 0 so you said no to the infinity of space but then you said it must have been infinite since the beginning? t = 0 is not the beginning then?