LZ sees one event that is a dark matter candidate

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TL;DR
LUX-ZEPLIN has found one event that is in the signal region for their dark matter search.
Article: LZ Sees Surprising Result in Search for Dark Matter
Slides
Paper should follow shortly. Edit: Paper (PDF)

A single event is not enough to claim a discovery, and an extremely weird background fluctuation cannot be ruled out, but it's still a very intriguing event.
This analysis covers all data collected until April 2024, they are working on the analysis of a larger dataset, we'll see if we get more events.

The main plot (slide 18):

1788277992623.webp
 
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Exciting!

Can they tune experiment parameters to improve the chances of production? Or could they if we knew more about it? Or do they just have to gather another 220+ days of data and see if they see another one?
 
The chance of a recoil event only depends on the dark matter properties and the active volume. A much larger volume would help but that means a new experiment. They reject events that happen close to the edge of the detector, as these places are more likely to have background events. You could shrink that region, but that's unlikely to improve the overall sensitivity. You don't want to add 10% signal if that means having twice the background.

So effectively the best thing is to take data for a longer time while making sure backgrounds stay tiny. LZ has 7 tonnes of liquid xenon, around 5 tonnes in the active volume. XENONnT has ~8 tonnes, but larger backgrounds. PandaX wants to build a 30 tonne experiment.
 
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What would even be a standard for credible detection here? 3 events? 10? When would they start calling Stockholm?
 
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Dale said:
With this detector does that mean that the dark matter candidate would interact with the weak nuclear force?
Or some novel fifth force that has a cross-section of interaction much weaker (by factors of millions or billions or so) than the SM weak force.

The DM cross-section of interaction of atomic nuclei (and hence the weak force charge of DM particles) would have to be profoundly weaker than that of neutrinos if it is a weak force interaction, which would be surprising since every SM particle with weak force interactions has the same weak force charge.
 
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Bandersnatch said:
What would even be a standard for credible detection here? 3 events? 10? When would they start calling Stockholm?
Not sure, does the paper say what statistical significance this event has?

UPDATED: The paper estimates the global statistical significance at 2.6 sigma, with a local statistical significance of up to 3.4 sigma. But the number of events probably isn't sufficient to determine the significance. It also depends, in part, about the details of each event and how far those details are from the expected background events on the chart in the OP. END UPDATE

But given the amount of searching that has been done with multiple direct dark matter detection experiments that are all roughly similar to each other, the significance after the look elsewhere effect should be much lower than the local statistical significance.

You'd probably need a local significance of something like 10 sigma to get a global significance that meets the 5 sigma discovery threshold. Also, it isn't just 5 sigma, you also need a theoretical framework to attach the result to and replication, to be a true discovery.

So, you'd need (1) to do a lot of analysis with outside peer reviewers to rule out extremely faint backgrounds that weren't considered in the original analysis or other possible non-DM sources of this outlier data point, and (2) you'd need another experiment in addition to LZ to see it.

But, this makes funding direct dark matter detection experiments similar to LZ for the purpose of replicating this result and tuned to the parameters space where this was seen a no brainer.
 
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Another issue is that even if the event is some non-SM particle, it doesn't necessarily follow that it is a significant component of DM.

Direct DM experiments are based upon the assumptions that the total DM mass flux and DM particle momentum can be pretty well determined from Milky Way dynamics, so you are looking at a parameter space in which DM particle mass and DM particle cross-section of interaction with nucleons trade off against each other for any given result.

This outlier data point, if it is real, points to a fairly high DM particle mass (some arXiv phenomenology papers are speculating in the 1 TeV order of magnitude). But anything much above 10 keV of mass presents real problems as a major component of DM since inferred DM distributions which are "cored" rather than "cuspy" suggest that you need much smaller DM masses to reduce the core-cusp problem, and plausible self-interaction strengths of heavy DM particles still don't solve that problem in simulations.

So, even if it is DM, it might be a type of DM particle that makes up, for example, only 1% of DM, as a DM analog to something like carbon atoms in interstellar space, while the predominant component of particle DM, as a DM analog of something like hydrogen atoms, might be too light for LZ to detect significantly due to neutrino backgrounds.

Analysis of this result in other preprints include:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.01475
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.01504
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.01592
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.02608
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.02775
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.02868
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.02823
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.02807

POST SCRIPT: If there are multiple kinds of DM particles and this is only a rare and heavy member of that set, this implies that the cross-section of interaction can be much higher (and thus, much closer to the neutrino-nucleon cross section of interaction). This is because the cross-section of interaction calculations assume that there is only one kind of DM particle, so that the actual events recorded comes from interactions with 100% of the DM flux through LZ. But if this assumption is wrong and only, for example, 1% of DM particles are massive enough for LZ to detect, then the actual cross-section of interaction implied by a given number of events is 100 times greater in that example.

If DM particles of this mass are extremely rare (the DM analog to uranium or lead, perhaps, making up only one in a million or billion DM particles) within the universe of DM particles, then perhaps the cross-section of interaction could be equivalent to the strength of the weak force interaction of SM particles.

The effective lower bound of DM particle mass that LZ can detect is about 0.2-0.5 GeV, and the signal to noise ratio starts to degrade meaningfully for DM particle masses below 10 GeV. And, there are, to repeat, strong suggestions from the inferred shape of DM distributions, that the predominant share of DM particles (assuming that they exist) should be about 10 keV or less, which is about 20,000 times less massive than DM particles that can give rise to events detected by LZ which are distinguishable from background events, and about 1,000,000 times less massive than DM particles that LZ can detect with maximum efficiency.
 
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mfb said:
TL;DR: LUX-ZEPLIN has found one event that is in the signal region for their dark matter search.

Article: LZ Sees Surprising Result in Search for Dark Matter
Slides
Paper should follow shortly. Edit: Paper (PDF)

A single event is not enough to claim a discovery, and an extremely weird background fluctuation cannot be ruled out, but it's still a very intriguing event.
This analysis covers all data collected until April 2024, they are working on the analysis of a larger dataset, we'll see if we get more events.

The main plot (slide 18):

View attachment 373947
What are these units of [phd] in the graph?
Never heard of this measure..
 
'photons detected'
The linked paper explains this in detail.
 
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