2012 delegate count: Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, Paul

[Gokul43201]

I did the math.

For simplicity sake: Romney wins the west, the northeast. Santorum wins the south and middle America.

Not sure what you mean by "wins". Are you splitting the states' delegates by some projection of the results or are you giving all of a state's delegates to the winner? For instance, how many delegates are you giving to Santorum from Texas? All, nearly all, more than half, or about a third?

Recent polling from TX has Romney essentially neck-to-neck with Santorum, each of them getting about a third of the delegates.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/tx/texas_republican_presidential_primary-1598.html

 

[Office_Shredder]

Here's somebody who seems to have done some real work in figuring this out (in particular knowing all the rules for delegate allocation)

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2012/04/the-delegate-predictor-is-it-over.html

 

[Gokul43201]

Here's somebody who seems to have done some real work in figuring this out (in particular knowing all the rules for delegate allocation)

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2012/04/the-delegate-predictor-is-it-over.html

Nice. So their estimate puts Romney over 1400 when all delegates are pledged and counted. That's a lot higher than my somewhat conservative guess of 1250 from a few days ago.