Dismiss Notice
Join Physics Forums Today!
The friendliest, high quality science and math community on the planet! Everyone who loves science is here!

538's Awards for Best and Worst Data Stories of 2016

  1. Dec 29, 2016 #1

    BillTre

    User Avatar
    Science Advisor

    Link
    awards:
    Statistical Fortitude
    Best Use of Data to Speak Truth to Power
    "Word of the Year" of the Year
    Trudeau Prize for Governance
    The Barest Minimum of Progress Achieved
    Boldest Sacking of Experienced Humans in Favor of Untested Algorithm
    The "Are We Still Doing This for Willful Misinterpretation of Government Statistics
    Prescient Data of the Year
    The Volkswagon Prize for Insidious Data Manipulation
    Ashley Madison Memorial User Data Leak of the Year
    Significant Digit of the Year
    FiveThirtyEight Person of the Year
     
  2. jcsd
  3. Dec 29, 2016 #2

    phinds

    User Avatar
    Gold Member
    2016 Award

    Seems like they forgot to give themselves an award for "worst prediction of the presidential election outcome".
     
  4. Dec 30, 2016 #3

    Vanadium 50

    User Avatar
    Staff Emeritus
    Science Advisor
    Education Advisor

    It's not like they didn't have a lot of company on that.
     
  5. Dec 30, 2016 #4

    phinds

    User Avatar
    Gold Member
    2016 Award

    True
     
  6. Dec 30, 2016 #5
    538? There's was far from the worst.
     
  7. Dec 30, 2016 #6

    Ygggdrasil

    User Avatar
    Science Advisor

    Of all the major prediction sites, Fivethirtyeight gave Trump the highest probability of winning (~30%) (https://www.buzzfeed.com/jsvine/2016-election-forecast-grades?utm_term=.ptOkdDd4Xx#.km7PV7VxlD), so much so that other media sites were making fun of them for emphasizing the uncertainty of the outcome (http://theconcourse.deadspin.com/i-think-nate-silver-is-broken-maybe-1787096019).

    If you want to make fun of someone, you should choose Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium who predicted a 99% probability of a Clinton victory and promised to eat a bug on national television if Trump won (he delivered: http://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2016/11/12/pollster-eats-bug-after-trump-win-smerconish.cnn)
     
  8. Dec 30, 2016 #7
    Correct. Nate also laid out plenty of scenarios for Trump's (then potential) path to victory and plenty of stern warnings about being too sure of anything.

    A lot of people failed to understand that 30% didn't mean 0%.

    -Dave K
     
  9. Dec 30, 2016 #8

    BillTre

    User Avatar
    Science Advisor

    30% chance is the same as a .300 hitter getting a hit.

    I've eaten various kinds of bugs before.
     
  10. Dec 30, 2016 #9

    mheslep

    User Avatar
    Gold Member

    That 30% call was the highest 538 share given to Trump. Most of the time they predicted far lower. See Rasmussen for polling closest to the outcome.
    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...n_2016/election_2016_white_house_watch_trends
     
  11. Dec 30, 2016 #10

    Ygggdrasil

    User Avatar
    Science Advisor

    Wrong, the Fivethirtyeight polls-only model had Trump up at 50% at the end of July. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    Over the long term, the average probability of a Trump win was probably only slightly lower than the 30% number on election day, in the 25-30% range.

    The site you provide gives national poll numbers from a polling firm (which is the raw data sites like Fivethirtyeight et al. use in their models). Calculating a probability of electoral college victory from the poll numbers requires additional modeling.
     
  12. Dec 30, 2016 #11

    mheslep

    User Avatar
    Gold Member

    Well that was the nomination bump.

    Yes, my mistake, as you say. I was familiar with 538 low predictions (~12%) in most of Oct, but missed the late September Trump surge.
     
Know someone interested in this topic? Share this thread via Reddit, Google+, Twitter, or Facebook

Have something to add?
Draft saved Draft deleted



Similar Discussions: 538's Awards for Best and Worst Data Stories of 2016
  1. Worst of The Best Movies (Replies: 31)

  2. Best of the worst posts (Replies: 24)

  3. Best and worst smells (Replies: 19)

Loading...