Graduate Are these results possibly the outcome of a probabilistic calculation?

  • Thread starter Thread starter campana
  • Start date Start date
  • Tags Tags
    Probability
Click For Summary
SUMMARY

The discussion centers on the validity of a forecast derived from a univariate time series analysis conducted on hazcard.com. The results are based on a limited dataset of 10 values and lack any probabilistic calculations or strategic learning. Participants express skepticism regarding the reliability of these results, particularly in the context of the volatile nature of Bitcoin values. The consensus leans towards questioning the legitimacy of the findings due to the absence of statistical rigor.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of univariate time series analysis
  • Familiarity with statistical forecasting methods
  • Knowledge of Bitcoin market volatility
  • Basic concepts of probability theory
NEXT STEPS
  • Research univariate time series forecasting techniques
  • Explore statistical methods for validating forecasts
  • Study the impact of limited data sets on prediction accuracy
  • Learn about Bitcoin price prediction models and their methodologies
USEFUL FOR

Statisticians, data analysts, financial analysts, and anyone interested in the reliability of time series forecasts in volatile markets like Bitcoin.

campana
Messages
1
Reaction score
0
TL;DR
An experiment about hazard and randomness applied to the fluctuation of the price of Bitcoin, without any use of math, A.I. and using very few data, gives very good results, Is it possible ? Give your annlyse.
Hello, I am seeking the opinion of specialists in statistics and probabilities to evaluate the results of a forecast on a univariate time series derived from an experiment at hazcard.com. They are presented as obtained from a logic that includes no probability calculation, no learning, no use of strategies, and only utilizes a limited history of 10 values as a working basis.

Can these results be considered possible, impossible, manipulated...

Thank you for your assistance.
 
Physics news on Phys.org
I wouldn't believe them. Given the obvious ups and downs of the value of bitcoin, they would have a lot to prove.
 

Similar threads

Probability of the outcomes of ##J^2## and ##J_{z}##?
  • · Replies 4 ·
Replies
4
Views
2K
Probability of selecting accurate results
  • · Replies 22 ·
Replies
22
Views
3K
Undergrad The Actual Sleeping beauty Problem
  • · Replies 45 ·
2
Replies
45
Views
5K
Undergrad Progress In Calculating The HLbL Contribution To Muon g-2
  • · Replies 0 ·
Replies
0
Views
2K
Calculating measurement probabilities for the CHSH game
  • · Replies 2 ·
Replies
2
Views
3K
Admissions Honest opinions and advice on Statement of Purpose requested
  • · Replies 1 ·
Replies
1
Views
2K
Is it possible to create order from disorder in a thermodynamic system?
  • · Replies 6 ·
Replies
6
Views
2K
Are entangled particle outcomes determined by the unit circle?
  • · Replies 11 ·
Replies
11
Views
3K
Undergrad Bayes again - how to interpret in vitro genotoxicity data
  • · Replies 8 ·
Replies
8
Views
2K
What to Do if You Encounter a Possible Psychopath? Report?
  • · Replies 15 ·
Replies
15
Views
4K