Graduate Are these results possibly the outcome of a probabilistic calculation?

  • Thread starter Thread starter campana
  • Start date Start date
  • Tags Tags
    Probability
Click For Summary
The discussion centers on evaluating the validity of a forecast from hazcard.com based on a univariate time series with no probabilistic calculations or learning involved. Participants question whether the results can be deemed possible, impossible, or potentially manipulated, given the limited data set of only 10 values. Concerns are raised about the reliability of such forecasts, especially in the context of volatile assets like bitcoin. The consensus leans towards skepticism regarding the credibility of the results. Overall, the discussion highlights the importance of statistical rigor in forecasting methods.
campana
Messages
1
Reaction score
0
TL;DR
An experiment about hazard and randomness applied to the fluctuation of the price of Bitcoin, without any use of math, A.I. and using very few data, gives very good results, Is it possible ? Give your annlyse.
Hello, I am seeking the opinion of specialists in statistics and probabilities to evaluate the results of a forecast on a univariate time series derived from an experiment at hazcard.com. They are presented as obtained from a logic that includes no probability calculation, no learning, no use of strategies, and only utilizes a limited history of 10 values as a working basis.

Can these results be considered possible, impossible, manipulated...

Thank you for your assistance.
 
Physics news on Phys.org
I wouldn't believe them. Given the obvious ups and downs of the value of bitcoin, they would have a lot to prove.
 

Thread 'How do E[X] and E[|X|] relate?'

Greetings, I am studying probability theory [non-measure theory] from a textbook. I stumbled to the topic stating that Cauchy Distribution has no moments. It was not proved, and I tried working it via direct calculation of the improper integral of E[X^n] for the case n=1. Anyhow, I wanted to generalize this without success. I stumbled upon this thread here: https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/how-to-prove-the-cauchy-distribution-has-no-moments.992416/ I really enjoyed the proof...
View full post »

Similar threads

Probability of the outcomes of ##J^2## and ##J_{z}##?
  • · Replies 4 ·
Replies
4
Views
2K
Probability of selecting accurate results
  • · Replies 22 ·
Replies
22
Views
3K
Undergrad The Actual Sleeping beauty Problem
  • · Replies 45 ·
2
Replies
45
Views
5K
Challenge: Find the minimum amount of draws possible for a list of integers
  • · Replies 9 ·
Replies
9
Views
3K
High School Which probability calculation is "more correct" in Baccarat games?
  • · Replies 9 ·
Replies
9
Views
5K
Undergrad Progress In Calculating The HLbL Contribution To Muon g-2
  • · Replies 0 ·
Replies
0
Views
2K
Calculating measurement probabilities for the CHSH game
  • · Replies 2 ·
Replies
2
Views
3K
Standard Deviation with Paired Values
  • · Replies 1 ·
Replies
1
Views
2K
Is it possible to create order from disorder in a thermodynamic system?
  • · Replies 6 ·
Replies
6
Views
2K
Are entangled particle outcomes determined by the unit circle?
  • · Replies 11 ·
Replies
11
Views
3K