News Battle for Delegates: Romney vs. Santorum vs. Gingrich vs. Paul

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Romney currently leads the delegate count with 652, followed by Santorum with 269, Gingrich with 140, and Paul with 66. The upcoming primaries will award 116 delegates, but none are winner-take-all, limiting the potential for significant gains by Santorum or Gingrich. Romney's national campaign strategy outmatches his opponents, who struggle to compete outside of select states. As the primaries progress, it appears increasingly likely that Romney will secure the necessary 1,144 delegates for the nomination. The discussions highlight the challenges faced by Santorum and Gingrich in overcoming Romney's frontrunner status.
  • #31
jduster said:
I did the math.

For simplicity sake: Romney wins the west, the northeast. Santorum wins the south and middle America.
Not sure what you mean by "wins". Are you splitting the states' delegates by some projection of the results or are you giving all of a state's delegates to the winner? For instance, how many delegates are you giving to Santorum from Texas? All, nearly all, more than half, or about a third?

Recent polling from TX has Romney essentially neck-to-neck with Santorum, each of them getting about a third of the delegates.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/tx/texas_republican_presidential_primary-1598.html
 
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  • #33
Office_Shredder said:
Here's somebody who seems to have done some real work in figuring this out (in particular knowing all the rules for delegate allocation)

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2012/04/the-delegate-predictor-is-it-over.html
Nice. So their estimate puts Romney over 1400 when all delegates are pledged and counted. That's a lot higher than my somewhat conservative guess of 1250 from a few days ago.