Another Conditional Problem...(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});

Lie Detector is

95% reliable when the person is guilty

98% reliable when innocent

Random Person pulled from a pool of people... This pool is 6% guilty of theft and 94% have never stolen...

Random person was determined guilty from the lie detector, what is the probability he is innocent?

-------------------------------

My attempt...

(.95)(.06) / [(.95)(.06) + (.02)(1-.06)] = .7512 . so 75.12% chance of him being guilty. Seems low, but I guess the fact that the pool of people has only 6% guilty in it, it lowers the chance a lot.

**Physics Forums - The Fusion of Science and Community**

The friendliest, high quality science and math community on the planet! Everyone who loves science is here!

# Bayes Theorem Question - Am I doing this right?

Loading...

Similar Threads - Bayes Theorem Question | Date |
---|---|

Understanding conditional probability and Bayes' theorem | Nov 6, 2015 |

Bayes theorem, answer way too small something wrong? | Feb 16, 2015 |

Help me understand this example of applying Bayes' Theorem | Nov 3, 2013 |

Baye's Theorem | Aug 6, 2013 |

Bayes' theorem | May 20, 2013 |

**Physics Forums - The Fusion of Science and Community**