Calculating Probability of Snow in Exactly One of Two Cities

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SUMMARY

The probability of snowing in exactly one of two cities, where the probability of snow in the first city is 0.4 and in the second city is 0.7, is calculated using the formula for mutually exclusive events. The correct calculation is P(A and 'not B') + P('not A' and B) = (0.4)(0.3) + (0.6)(0.7) = 0.4896. The initial subtraction of the joint probability was unnecessary as the events are mutually exclusive. Thus, the final probability of snowing in exactly one city is confirmed to be 0.4896.

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BrownianMan
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I had this question on a test:

The probability of snowing in one city is 0.4, and the probability of snowing in another city is 0.7. Assume independence. What is the probability that it snows in exactly one of the two cities?

The way I approached it was to say that the probability that it snows in exactly one of the two cities is:

Let A denote probability of snow in the first city.
Let B denote probability of snow in the second city.

P(A and 'not B') or P('not A' and B) = (0.4)(0.3) + (0.6)(0.7) - (0.4)(0.3)(0.6)(0.7) = 0.4896

Is this correct?
 
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I don't think you need that part you are subtracting.
 
Yeah, I just realized that. The events P(A and 'not B') and P('not A' and B) are mutually exclusive.

The question was out of 6, so at least I'll get part marks.
 

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