California 50th district - special election

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the special election for California's 50th district, prompted by the conviction of former representative Duke Cunningham. Participants explore the dynamics of the election, including candidate standings, voter sentiment, and potential outcomes, with a focus on the implications of party representation and voter turnout.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants note that Francine Busby, the Democratic candidate, is polling significantly ahead of her Republican rivals, particularly Howard Kaloogian.
  • There is speculation about the potential for a run-off election if no candidate secures a majority of votes, which could lead to a contest between candidates from different parties.
  • One participant raises concerns about the financial burdens that the winning candidate may face, questioning if this is a common issue in such elections.
  • Another participant emphasizes the conservative leanings of the district and suggests that local dissatisfaction with Democratic candidates could impact the election outcome.
  • Updates on vote counts indicate that while Busby had a strong showing, the Republican candidates collectively received a higher percentage of votes, leading to a run-off election.
  • As the run-off approaches, late polling suggests a competitive race between Busby and Bilbray, with fluctuating leads reported as precincts report their results.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on the likely outcome of the election, with some predicting a strong performance for Busby while others highlight the Republican advantage in the district. The discussion remains unresolved regarding the final election results.

Contextual Notes

Participants acknowledge the influence of local political sentiment and candidate performance on the election outcome, but specific factors contributing to voter behavior remain unclear.

Who May Find This Useful

Individuals interested in electoral dynamics, political strategy, and local governance in California may find this discussion relevant.

What happens in the special election ? (see OP)

  • Busby wins outright majority

    Votes: 1 50.0%

  • Busby wins the run-off

    Votes: 1 50.0%

  • Busby loses the run-off

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Other (drops out, etc. ... explain)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    2
  • Poll closed .
Gokul43201
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California's long-time-red 50th district (San Diego) is coming up for a special election in less than a week, following the conviction of (R-Ca) "Duke" Cunningham. There's now a couple dozen contenders vying for the spot, with Democratic candidate Francine Busby polling way ahead of her nearest rival, Republican Howard Kaloogian . Also, there's only 3 or 4 Democratic candidates against about a dozen Republicans (causing a greater split in the Republican vote).

If there is no outright majority (>50% of votes) won by a single candidate on April 11th, there will be a run-off election between the winners of different parties (in June sometime).

What, do you predict, will be the outcome of the election(s) ?
 
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Isn't the winner going to receive a tremendous debt as a welcoming gift if they win or am i thinking of someone else.
 
It's hard to predict because one has to know the undercurrents in that area. Most people I know in SD are stauchly conservative and/or Republican, and that district seems fairly conservative. Also, I have seen some Democrats doing relatively poor jobs in some local offices.

I guess it depends on how frustrated the general population is with the parties and how they feel about the particular candidates.

There is a similar situation with DeLay stepping down in Texas. The primaries are past, so the Republicans will have to find a replacement for DeLay, but does that mean another special election, or do they simply use 'right in' in the November general election?
 
Update : http://www.sdvote.org/election/special.xml

Francine Busby(D) 56147 44%
Brian Bilbray(R) 19366 15%
Eric Roach(R) 18486 14%
Howard Kaloogian(R) 9525 7%
Bill Morrow(R) 6886 5%
Alan Uke(R) 5120 4%Total votes for Dems = 45%
Total votes for Reps = 54%
Total votes for Libs = 1%

There, being no outright winner, a run-off will be contested on June 6th, between Busby, Bilbray and Paul King (Libertarian).
 
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The run-off election is today. Pre-election polling has Busby(D) and Bilbray(R) neck-to-neck.

Since primaries are also happening today there should be a largish turnout.

Late update (as of 10pm PT): With 10% of precints reporting, Bilbray has an 8% lead over Busby.

Final Update: Bilbray wins 50 to 45.
 
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