California 50th district - special election

[Gokul43201]

California's long-time-red 50th district (San Diego) is coming up for a special election in less than a week, following the conviction of (R-Ca) "Duke" Cunningham. There's now a couple dozen contenders vying for the spot, with Democratic candidate Francine Busby polling way ahead of her nearest rival, Republican Howard Kaloogian . Also, there's only 3 or 4 Democratic candidates against about a dozen Republicans (causing a greater split in the Republican vote).

If there is no outright majority (>50% of votes) won by a single candidate on April 11th, there will be a run-off election between the winners of different parties (in June sometime).

What, do you predict, will be the outcome of the election(s) ?

 

[Pengwuino]

Isn't the winner going to receive a tremendous debt as a welcoming gift if they win or am i thinking of someone else.

 

[Astronuc]

It's hard to predict because one has to know the undercurrents in that area. Most people I know in SD are stauchly conservative and/or Republican, and that district seems fairly conservative. Also, I have seen some Democrats doing relatively poor jobs in some local offices.

I guess it depends on how frustrated the general population is with the parties and how they feel about the particular candidates.

There is a similar situation with DeLay stepping down in Texas. The primaries are past, so the Republicans will have to find a replacement for DeLay, but does that mean another special election, or do they simply use 'right in' in the November general election?

 

[Gokul43201]

Update : http://www.sdvote.org/election/special.xml

Francine Busby(D) 56147 44%
Brian Bilbray(R) 19366 15%
Eric Roach(R) 18486 14%
Howard Kaloogian(R) 9525 7%
Bill Morrow(R) 6886 5%
Alan Uke(R) 5120 4%Total votes for Dems = 45%
Total votes for Reps = 54%
Total votes for Libs = 1%

There, being no outright winner, a run-off will be contested on June 6th, between Busby, Bilbray and Paul King (Libertarian).

 

[Gokul43201]

The run-off election is today. Pre-election polling has Busby(D) and Bilbray(R) neck-to-neck.

Since primaries are also happening today there should be a largish turnout.

Late update (as of 10pm PT): With 10% of precints reporting, Bilbray has an 8% lead over Busby.

Final Update: Bilbray wins 50 to 45.