Conditional expectation of Exp(theta)

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the conditional expectation of a random variable X that follows an exponential distribution with parameter θ. Participants explore how to express the conditional expectation \operatorname{E}(X|X \geq \tau) and the application of the memorylessness property in this context.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Mathematical reasoning
  • Homework-related

Main Points Raised

  • One participant seeks to demonstrate that \operatorname{E}(X|X \geq \tau)=\tau+\frac{1}{\theta} using the memorylessness property of the exponential distribution.
  • Another participant suggests that writing down the memorylessness property mathematically might clarify the approach to the problem.
  • A participant expresses difficulty in converting from expectation to probability, indicating a struggle with the application of the memorylessness property.
  • Further, a participant hints at rewriting the memorylessness property into a more suitable form for the proof, suggesting a transition from conditional probabilities to conditional cumulative distribution functions (cdf) and then to conditional probability density functions (pdf).

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants do not reach a consensus; multiple approaches and interpretations of the memorylessness property are discussed, with some expressing uncertainty about how to apply it effectively.

Contextual Notes

Participants mention the need to express conditional expectations as ratios of integrals, indicating that there may be unresolved mathematical steps in their reasoning.

ghostyc
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Given X follows an exponential distribution [tex]\theta[/tex]

how could i show something like

[tex]\operatorname{E}(X|X \geq \tau)=\tau+\frac 1 \theta[/tex]

?

i have get the idea of using Memorylessness property here,
but how can i combine the probability with the expectation?

thanks.

casper
 
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ghostyc said:
i have get the idea of using Memorylessness property here,
but how can i combine the probability with the expectation?

If you write down mathematically the Memorynessless property then it might become obvious. Otherwise it's fine to express the conditional expectation as a ratio of integrals and evaluate it directly.
 
bpet said:
If you write down mathematically the Memorynessless property then it might become obvious. Otherwise it's fine to express the conditional expectation as a ratio of integrals and evaluate it directly.

[tex]\Pr(T > s + t\; |\; T > s) = \Pr(T > t) \;\; \hbox{for all}\ s, t \ge 0.[/tex]

i just can't convert from expectation to the probability...

damn
 
That's what I did so far.

But I just can't use the memoryless property to do it ...

http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/5945/tempz.jpg
 

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ghostyc said:
That's what I did so far.

But I just can't use the memoryless property to do it ...

Hint: rewrite the memoryless property into a form suitable to use on line 1 of your proof. Conditional probabilities -> conditional cdf -> conditional pdf.
 

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