Is the question in the paint document flawed? The question says. How many socks must he take out to be sure that he has at least two black socks? The solution to this problem is.. in case if all twelve pickings are brown.... Well how can he be sure that all twelve pickings are brown? He cannot. All twelve of his first pickings may be brown but they may also be black. Therefore he cannot be sure that the 13th and 14th pickings are black or brown because it is impossible for the person to know if his first twelve pickings are black or brown.