Do Low Interest Rates Really Help The Economy?

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    Economy Interest
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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the impact of low interest rates on the economy, exploring theories related to consumption, investment, and economic health. Participants examine both theoretical models and real-world implications, considering various perspectives on fiscal policy and its effects on economic behavior.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation
  • Conceptual clarification

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants argue that lowering interest rates encourages borrowing and consumption, while others contend that it may lead to excess inventory and a surplus of non-perishable goods.
  • There is a discussion about the implications of low interest rates on capital formation, with references to a model by David Cass & Menahem suggesting that a real interest rate lower than the growth rate is suboptimal.
  • One participant questions the assumption that lower interest rates are beneficial, comparing them to drugs that may provide short-term benefits but lead to long-term detriment.
  • Concerns are raised about the potential negative consequences of raising interest rates, such as increased foreclosures and economic shocks.
  • Another viewpoint emphasizes that simply increasing GDP through lower interest rates does not account for the distribution of wealth and the nature of economic activities, suggesting that not all growth is beneficial.
  • Participants discuss the relationship between interest rates, consumption, and inflation, noting that low rates may stimulate consumption but also lead to price inflation, complicating policy goals.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express multiple competing views on the effects of low interest rates, with no consensus reached on whether they are ultimately beneficial or detrimental to the economy. The discussion remains unresolved regarding the implications of interest rate changes and their broader economic effects.

Contextual Notes

Participants highlight various assumptions and conditions, such as the relationship between nominal and real interest rates, the nature of economic growth, and the implications of fiscal policy on different segments of the population. These factors contribute to the complexity of the discussion.

  • #91
loseyourname said:
You can target interest rates by controlling the money supply or target a money supply. The Fed currently targets interest rates but it hasn't always chosen this path.
Is this true? I know the Fed used to try keep interest rates stable back in the 70s only to have its policies produce stagflation. I was under the impression that after that, the Fed, starting with Volcker, mainly focused on keeping inflation in check, which essentially meant not letting the money supply grow too quickly.
It can also make changes to the discount rate and reserve requirement to implement monetary policy, but it rarely does, almost never changing the reserve requirement and only using the discount rate for dire emergencies like 9/11.
An econ professor likened the difference between adjusting the discount rate or reserve requirement vs. open market operations to control the money supply to the difference between using a meat cleaver vs. a scalpel to cut meat.
 
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  • #92
Here's an update on "QE - 2"
http://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-fed-quantitative-easing-2-2010-11

"The New York Fed plans to purchase securities worth $850 to $900 billion in the second round of quantitative easing.

It works like this: There will be an additional amount of purchases worth $600 billion (that's the headline number from the Fed today).

But there will also be a reinvestment of $250 to $300 billion from payments associated with other securities it already holds.

That makes QE2 feel a whole lot bigger, and closer to the top end $1 trillion number that was mentioned."
 

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